The NL Central is one of the weaker divisions in all of baseball. Because of that, I have decided to go with a bland pick and say that the division winner will be...
1st place
Chicago Cubs
Despite the injury concerns and the dipping performances of Derrek Lee and Big Z, this team is still the best in the division.
A rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden and Sean Marshall is probably the best in the Central, though the team pictured above could give them a run for their money.
The biggest thing for this team is health and repeat performances.
Dempster had a career year last year, so he will need to repeat that glove shake (Seriously, it is pretty obnoxious despite it's effectiveness) success to give the Cubs a chance.
If Zambrano and Harden go down, it could give another NL Central team a chance to sneak in and take away the Cubs two year reign as champs.
Angel Guzman is a good prospect who could fill in, but he so far has had no success in the big leagues (Career in the majors: 0-7 with ERA of 6.00 in 96 innings pitched.)
If Milton Bradley or Alfonso Soriano miss time, they do have a good prospect in Micah Hoffpaur (Though at 29 he's hardly a prospect) but he could be serviceable as a fill-in.
The offense has to be more concerned with the downturn of Derrek Lee. Last year he was 2nd in all of the bigs in GIDP (Grounded into double plays.) That's a bad number for the three hitter who should be driving those runs in. He's also hit only 50 home runs in the past three years after hitting 46 in 2005. Still, their lineup is solid and just got better with Milton Bradley projected to hit in the 4 spot giving them a much-needed left handed bat.
It also gives them Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto as their 1-6. That's pretty rough for an opposing pitcher to face. That's also if everyone stays healthy and father time doesn't take a toll on Lee, Bradley or Soriano's numbers, which is entirely possible as well.
Their bullpen is the best in the division though, and that's going to be the reason they take the crown. Carlos Marmol is not the closer, and that's probably the best decision considering he can go multiple innings and also strike the Cubs out of any bases loaded no out jam. Their middle relief is not great, but it's respectable with Neil Cotts, Aaron Heilman, and Chad Gaudin. Jeff Smardzija is also a solid option.
They aren't going to be the best team in the NL like last year, but they can win the Central with only 90 wins, so they won't need to be.
In 2nd place...
The Cincinnati Reds
I've already wasted my sleeper picks on the Rangers and Marlins. If I wanted to live really dangerously I'd pick the Reds for Central champs.
Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips are all the real deal (Despite Phillips' poor showing last year.) Adding Willy Taveras' speed will clearly help the lineup, and his immaculate defense will be a huge upgrade over Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, or Corey Patterson which will really help a young pitching staff.
Speaking of which, they may have overtaken the Cubs as having the best pitching in the Central.
Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo and Micah Owings. You know what you're getting from Harang and Arroyo. So the question will be if Volquez can avoid a sophomore slump, if Cueto can be what he was in the first half of last year, and if Micah Owings can find some consistency. All these guys have serious potential that could cause an upset in the Central standings.
Their bullpen is the biggest weakness.
Cordero and Weathers are not reliable options. Jared Burton and Bill Bray are good young pitchers who need to put it together for a full year in the big leagues. If they do, Cordero and Weathers won't have much breathing room for struggling if they want to hold on to the closer and set up roles.
The bullpen is the only reason I don't have the Reds winning the division. That and Lou Piniella is a better manager than Dusty Baker overall. Though I am happy with Dusty's decision to give Chris Dickerson a shot in left field despite his overwhelming love for veterans over prospects.
If the Reds bullpen performs well this season, they will be the team to beat in 2009 in the NL Central.
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In 3rd place...
The St. Louis Cardinals
A healthy Albert Pujols means the Cardinals will always have a shot at the playoffs. Toss in a healthy Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, and they can challenge for the NL Central crown.
Their bullpen and outfield are two huge question marks though.
Ludwick? Will he repeat last year's performance? Probably not.
Rick Ankiel? Great power, not very much average and a lot of strikeouts.
Chris Duncan? Can he capture that rookie magic where he hit 22 homers and hit .293? Hasn't been able to do it the last two years and has seen his role reduced.
Seems more like he's keeping the job warm for Colby Rasmus.
And defensively these three outfielders all can throw, but can't cover much ground. That's a lot of bloop singles and doubles in the gap without any legs out there being able to take away some hits.That could be hard for a pitching staff that is not the best to say the least.
Adam Wainwright will be great if he is healthy, as will Carpenter with an even bigger if he's healthy. After that, it's Joel Piniero, Kyle Lohse, and Todd Wellemeyer.
Their bullpen shows some promise, but not much. Last year they led the league with 31 blown saves. This year, they're going to a mix of youngsters and veterans to try and put teams away.
The Young guns:
Kyle McClellan and Josh Kinney both have live arms that can make a difference.
The Geezers:
Ryan Franklin is in the set up role after closing unsuccessfully for most of last season. Maybe he will be better suited in a reduced role.
Trever Miller isn't exactly the best option out of the 'pen as your left-handed specialist, so that's a problem.
The husky Dennys Reyes doesn't strike fear in the heart of many hitters either.
Now to Jason Motte, who is taking over as closer, and has done great in his 11 pro innings.
The problem...he's only pitched 11 pro innings, so it is yet to be seen how he handles a full season of closing out ballgames.
Pujols obviously is Pujols, but he has nothing around him in the lineup. It's unfortunate that the best hitter in baseball will have no protection, but on the flip side, he makes these guys better by getting on base and giving them pitches to hit.
Despite all this, if anyone can manage it, it would be Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. The Cardinals are the only team that you have to look at management over players when picking their pecking order in the division. No matter who they have in their rotation, Dave Duncan seems to have a magic wand that makes the worst pitchers ever decent enough to help the team win. This year's rotation on any other team would have me picking them for last place. Yet despite it all, Dave Duncan seems to be able to get the best out of his pitchers.
Overall, Pujols makes everyone else on his team better.
LaRussa and Duncan are amazing managers, and considering how strong they played last year (Despite a 4th place finish, they contended most of the year) I think they can do well. Just not that well. Maybe next year when Colby Rasmus has a season under his belt, I'll be singing a different tune.
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In 4th place...
The Houston Astros
This is hard for me to type being a die-hard Astros fan. But their starting rotation is just not good enough to grant them a playoff berth. And with the worst farm system in baseball and an aging core of stars, I don't know how my guys will pull out another strong second half finish.
Roy Oswalt is good, but not the ace he used to be. His second half last year was incredible, but can he do that for a whole season again this year? Even if he does, Wandy Rodriguez, Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz is just too terrible a 2-5 for the Astros offense to support. And let's say one of those guys (Hampton, just for example, not that he has a history of it or anything) gets hurt. Who are they going to call up?
Paulino's a good prospect who can throw 100 mph. But he has no movement and still struggles with his secondary pitches. There's no depth here if anything goes wrong. And given the likelihood of that (Ahem, Hampton), it's going to make it tough.
I actually think the offense will be the best part of the 'Stros.
Michael Bourn has played extremely well in the off-season improving his walks and cutting down on his strikeouts. Add Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, Hunter Pence and Pudge Rodriguez and they have some tough outs in the lineup. The age is a concern obviously, so we'll see how these older fellas handle a full season and if they can stay healthy.
The bullpen is another strong aspect. Jose Valverde once again led the NL in saves, and Wesley Wright was quite the surprise as a rule 5 draft pick who stuck with the team. Doug Brocail is getting older. You have to wonder how long he can keep producing outs and mid to low 90's heat. Latroy Hawkins was a surprise and I think he should continue to be effective now that he has some movement on his fastball and a sinker.
Unfortunately, the lack of young talent and no pitching depth whatsoever will hurt the 'Stros too much.
I'm not saying they can't do it. I'm not saying I don't want them to do it. I just can't justify anything higher than 4th place with that starting rotation and no farm system to back it up.
In 5th place...
The Pittsburgh Pirates
They actually have some pieces now, so it's just a matter of time before they get to a level of competitiveness they haven't seen since the early 90's.
Their farm system is a year or two away from making an impact, but the prospects on the way sound amazing.
Andrew McCutcheon and Pedro Alvarez could see some action in the big leagues this season. If you've never heard of Pedro Alvarez, he reportedly hit a 550 foot homer in batting practice, so he could be the next era of Barry Bonds for the Bucs.
Their pitching is not great, and it's all youngsters, but youngsters with big league experience.
I think Maholm could break out this year. Last season he had a respectable ERA of 3.71. This spring he has been hot, and up until today's outing against the Red Sox, he was 2-0 with a 0.46 ERA in five appearances, with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 19.2 innings (His ERA rose to 1.52 today.)
After that it's all young guys who have the stuff that just need to bring consistency to the table. Ian Snell is only 27 and Zach Duke, Russ Ohlendorf, and Jeff Karstens are 26. Duke hasn't had a good season since his breakout rookie campaign. It's shocking to find out that he is only 26 this year since he's been around so long.
But all these guys have the potential to be great, the only problem is they don't have an innings-eater.
That's a lot of pressure to put on your young starters and your bullpen.
Their bullpen is surprisingly trustworthy with Matt Capps and John Grabow in the back end. Clearly no Putz and K-Rod. But it's good enough to bring them out of the cellar finally. And Rule 5 draft pick Donald Veal, a left-handed reliever, could make an impact as well.
Offensively, they have Nyjer Morgan who could steal 40 bases as long as he gets on base, which so far in the big leagues he's had success with. Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit give them decent 3,4 hitters if they choose to put them in those spots.
I think they'll pull themselves out of the basement.
Which means someone else has to go in the basement. And that team will be...
The Milwaukee Brewers.
Maybe this will be Rickie Weeks year!...But it won't be.
What a difference a year makes huh? One minute you've got the best pitcher in baseball and a shot at the World Series. The next you're in the cellar. It's not without good reason though. They not only lost CC Sabathia, but their former franchise face Ben Sheets. Their starting pitching took a huge hit with those two losses.
Despite Sheets' frequent trips to the DL, when he was with the team he absolutely made them better and gave them more depth. Now you move Dave Bush from the 4 spot last year to the number 2 pitcher. That's not good. They also lost Salomon Torres who, while not your ideal closer, was still the best option they had in 2008 for closing out ballgames. They will miss him in the back end of the bullpen for multiple inning outings in 2009.
The most interesting aspect of the Brew-Crew is their new manager Ken Macha. Despite the lack of roster, Macha made a name for himself in Oakland of doing more with less. Every year his team bled talent to other teams and he still kept the A's competitive because of their farm system. The Brewers have a farm system that is still quite potent, but it's at least a year away. This season's bunch is gonna be a rough one, so we'll see what he does with them.
Yovani Gallardo will be the best part of this team as the rest of their rotation is as bad as it gets. Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra make up their 2-5 pitchers. Not one of those pitchers had an ERA below 4.18.
Not one of those pitchers pitched 200 innings last year, (Though Looper missed that number by 1 inning to be fair) nor did one of them have more than 12 wins.
Combine that with the fact that if you combine how many homers they gave up last year, it equals 102. An average of about 25 homers per pitcher. If you're not familiar with baseball, that's not good for one pitcher, let alone four.
Parra is also the only one who seems like he can still improve, so it doesn't look good. And their bullpen looks even worse. Now if they had Dave Duncan, I'd put them much higher in the standings. But they don't.
The biggest difference between the Brewers and every other team in the Central ahead of them...bullpen. Trevor Hoffman will already start the season on the DL and that means (gulp) Carlos Villanueva will close. David Riske is the set-up. Jorge Julio in the 7th.
Yeesh.
Their offense is obviously great with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but I don't think Prince will be around the full season. The Brewers are entering re-building mode once more after the CC Sabathia trade. Prince should probably be gone unless the team has a legitimate shot at the title by the all-star break. Taking him away will hurt them offensively, and it will be a long season for the Brew Crew.
But they do have some prospects on the way in Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, Alcides Escobar, and given Macha's record with teams full of prospects, they should be better sooner rather than later. So they'll just have to take their lumps in 2009 and make their way back to being a contender in the near future.
That's all for the NL Central...
NL West next and then...THE PLAYOFFS
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