So we're here...almost to Opening Day. Time for the NL West picks before we go to my fantasmagical playoffs that probably won't happen. Here it is...the final division to analyze in baseball...the NL West.
In first Place...
Los Angeles Dodgers
Yeah. Look at him up there. All Manny-bein'-Manny like. Yeah...
I hate him with a fiery passion.
Despite all my rage (I am still just a rat in a cage), the Dodgers will win the NL West.
No one else has the talent and balance this team has. The Dodgers have the speed, the power, the pitching (both starting and relief). They also have one of the best managers of the last half-century in Joe Torre.
Starting pitching is their biggest question mark heading into '09.
It's looking like Torre is going to give both Clayton Kershaw and James McDonald the chance to start, which means the 1-3 of this rotation needs to be able to eat innings if those guys struggle.
Randy Wolf and Chad Billingsley are both extremely capable of pitching seven-plus innings. Hiroki Kuroda had two complete game shutouts last year and his second half ERA was 2.56. He also pitched phenomenally in the playoffs, so I think he will have success again as the Dodgers ace.
Those front three guys are durable enough to go deep in games, and considering the park they play in, shouldn't give up too many long balls either(As was the case last year.)
But more importantly, they will help out the bullpen tremendously in case Kershaw or McDonald have a rough outing and go short.
The Dodgers also have a couple veterans who could fill in if Kershaw or McDonald struggle in Jeff Weaver, Tanyon Sturtze, and Eric Milton.
Not that any of those three are amazing, but they have experience and can do a suitable enough job as a No. 4 or 5 starter in a pitcher's ballpark.
Their bullpen is absolutely phenomonal, though inexperienced. Jonathan Broxton is closing out ballgames and Hong-Chih Kuo is in the set-up role (Last year an ERA of 2.14 in 42 games with 96 K's to 21 BB's in 80 innings, Yowza that's control!).
Now add Guillermo Mota, the young talented Cory Wade, and Jeff Weaver as a long relief/spot start option and I think that's a solid bullpen.
Their defense got an upgrade with Orlando Hudson at second. Manny Ramirez in left is obviously their biggest weakness, so Matt Kemp will need to keep up his amazing defense from last year and cover some serious ground.
Rafael Furcal is fully healed from last year's back injury which was a detriment to him making back-handed stops. We'll see if he improves this year as he can certainly fire the ball to first faster than anyone, but sometimes his accuracy is not the best either.
Russell Martin is as solid as it gets behind the plate defensively, so they have no concerns there.
Offensively this team is going to give opponents nightmares.
Their projected lineup is: 1) Rafael Furcal 2) Orlando Hudson 3) Manny Ramirez 4) Andre Ethier 5) Russell Martin 6) James Loney 7) Matt Kemp 8) Casey Blake.
It's a terrific combination of players that can get on-base, hit for power, or swipe a bag.
And that's what puts the Dodgers in first. Having complete players like Martin, Kemp, or Furcal who can hit the long ball, hit for average, or work a walk and then swipe a bag.
They even have speed and good contact hitters coming off the bench. Pierre is exactly who you'd want to insert on the basepaths in a tie game with the slower Manny Ramirez on first.
And Loretta is a great bench player who does well in pinch-hitting and utility roles.
The offensive depth and complete package is what puts the Dodgers above everyone else.
Coming in second...
The Colorado Rockies
A healthy Troy Tulowitzki. A rejuvenated Todd Helton (Hitting .515 this spring with a slugging percentage of 1.000). Mix in a few rookie prospects like Seth Smith and Chris Iannetta and they can contend with the Dodgers.
Offensively they have what it takes, and their bench is stacked with prospects as well, such as Ian Stewart and Dexter Fowler. Two guys that can come in and hit or swipe a bag (Respectively.)
Their pitching is looking good enough to put them closer to the top. Aaron Cook was an All-Star last year and keeps balls on the ground which is always a good thing in Coors Field.
Ubaldo Jiminez is an ace in waiting and just needs to put it together in the big leagues. It'll be especially important for him to cut down on his walks. He also needs to figure out how to avoid the big inning.
When he's on, he's on. When he's not...the roof caves in. He needs to be able to minimize damage and he can definitely help this team contend for a playoff spot.
Franklyn Morales is another young gun who is being overlooked in this rotation. He's a southpaw who can really pitch, but got hurt last year.
He seems to have figured out his mechanics problem and if he lives up to the hype, the Rockies will have a solid three in their rotation they can count on.
The bullpen got an upgrade with Huston Street as closer, moving Corpas to the eighth inning which makes them have a solid back end.
Their middle relief isn't pretty but, it's better than the rest of the division's outside of the Dodgers.
The thing that makes the Rockies stand out most from the rest of the division (Dodgers excluded) is balance. They have hitters who can hit for average and power. A good mix of lefties and righties in their lineup and on their bench.
They are defensively sound, as Tulowitzki is the best defensive shortstop in the game when healthy.
Their bullpen is respectable and their rotation is solid.
That's what puts them above everyone that isn't the Dodgers. Speaking of those teams.
Coming in third place...
Arizona Diamondbacks
If they can figure out a way to get on base outside of smacking a homerun, this team could be the NL West champs again.
Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen.
Look up and down this lineup and you'll see no one other than Conor Jackson and Stephen Drew who can find a consistent way to get on base.
And as strange as this sounds, homeruns aren't all they're cracked up to be.
If you can't keep a pitcher out of his windup by clogging up the basepaths, making him swatch runners, than what good does two solo shots in a game do you?
So he gives up a solo shot on a first pitch fastball. If he gets the next three guys out in 10-12 pitches, he's going to go deep in the game, so you're not doing your job as a hitter.
Obviously these players are all still young. Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Chris B. Young, Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew. This has the makings of a devastating lineup with speed and power.
But getting on-base is the most important thing, and they struggle mightily with that.
You've got to be able to put pressure on the opposing pitcher.
On the flip side, they have a great rotation.
Brandon Webb and Danny Haren are still the best 1-2 punch in all of the NL.
However, Haren started to struggle in the 2nd half of last year, and Billy Beane is pretty good about getting rid of pitchers right before they hit the wall.
I think Haren may have a down year, but the rest of the rotation is solid. Jon Garland is a good option at the No. 4.
Max Scherzer will be the biggest factor in this team's success. If he has a breakout season, the D-Backs may be going to the playoffs.
But he's starting the year on the DL and the team has said they're going to limit him to 170 innings.
I think he'll do fine down the road, but this year won't be his coming out party.
Now to the bullpen.
This is going to hurt the team more than those lack of baserunners. Jon Rauch and Chad Qualls are in the eighth and ninth, respectively. They're both fine pitchers. I'm sure they're also fine men, upstanding citizens in their communities. The one thing I know they're not though, is closers.
And with no other options in the 'pen (Tony Pena had a shot at the job last year, but he couldn't handle it either), it's going to make the seventh-ninth innings quite the roller coaster ride for Snake fans.
Maybe they could use one of their starter prospects in Jarrod Parker or Juan Guttierez to close, but still, there's too much unreliability in the back end for this team to win out west.
Coming in fourth place...
San Francisco Giants
They're the exact same thing as the Diamondbacks, only without power and slightly better pitching.
2009 Rotation:
Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez.
What's scary is they have more pitching on the way with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson coming up the pipe.
But let's focus on right now.
Randy Johnson may be over the hill, but he can still pitch. And now that Zito's a 4 spot in the rotation, they won't need him to put up ace numbers. Maybe he can recapture some of that Oakland magic with less pressure on him to perform.
Jonathan Sanchez is arguably the second- or third-best pitcher in the rotation, but the Giants want to break it up righty-lefty so he gets pushed back to the No. 5 spot.
Their bullpen is shaky at best. Brian Wilson isn't someone who shuts the door completely, but can get the job done. Howry and Affeldt aren't exactly solid options in middle relief either. Alex Hinshaw could emerge as the closer when it's all said and done.
They have a lot of young guys in the rest of the 'pen, so the starting pitching will really need to hold up.
Of course this team is the inverse of the Rangers. They have the pitching. They need the hitting.
Pablo Sandoval will be manning third base, and he seems like the real deal. Unfortunately, it's between him, Aaron Rowand, and Bengie Molina for biggest slugger on the team.
It's a tad embarrassing that no one on the Giants roster hit more than 16 home runs last year, and Molina isn't getting any younger.
Buster Posey is still a year or two away, so he's not going to be of help this season.
The one thing they have (which any team with strong pitching sans hitting needs), is speed. Fred Lewis, Randy Winn, and Emmanuel Burriss can all bust tail.
That means the Giants are going to have to get pretty good at bunting in order to win this year.
The biggest key will be the bullpen though. The Giants are going to be locked in a lot of 2-1, or 1-0 ballgames heading into the seventh. Depending on how the bullpen finishes the job, that will be the difference for this team being in second or fifth.
In last place...
The San Diego Padres
Adrian Gonzalez does not get nearly enough recognition for the amazing hitter he is. He plays in a pitcher's park, has no protection in the lineup, and yet he still produces MVP-like numbers.
Unfortunately, he is the only reason to watch the Padres offense this year. Well, he and Chase Headley who could begin the transformation the Padres are enduring right now.
Kevin Kouzmanoff has only lived up to his defensive prowess as offensively he seems to be a decent 3B, but nothing spectacular.
Brian Giles is still good at getting on base but that's about all he can do.
Outside of that, they have Henry Blanco at catcher, David Eckstein at second, Luis Rodriguez at short and...well you get the picture.
Jake Peavy will most likely be gone by mid-summer, unless the Padres are somehow in it at that point.
A healthy Chris Young also gives the Padres a solid 1-2 to compete with anyone's front starters.
After that though, the rotation gets real ugly, real quick.
Cha Seung Baek (Say that three times fast), Kevin Correia (a guy who's never really had success as a reliever, much less a starter), and either Shawn Hill or Walter Silva will be rounding out the 3-5.
Without any substantial offense to back that up, it's going to be a rough year for the Friars.
It also doesn't help that even when Peavy and Young are on the mound, they don't have much of a bullpen to hand the game to.
Heath Bell is good, but has never been a closer for a full season, and we know that set-up men making that transition more often than not have a tough time with it (See: LaTroy Hawkins, Brandon Lyon, Guillermo Mota, Soloman Torres, Ryan Franklin, Brian Fuentes, Manny Corpas, back to Brian Fuentes, you get the idea.)
And considering their lack of depth in the 'pen (They have two relievers who've never pitched an inning in the big leagues, another who's thrown 15.2 with an ERA of 13.21) it's going to be hard for them to close out any lead they do get.
So that's how it all shakes out...I already regret half the decisions I've made but it's too late. I published them, they're there, and next up is the 2009 playoffs based on my predictions. I can't wait for the horrible inaccuracy of it all...
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