The Red Sox find themselves tied for third place in the AL East (10 - 11) as of April 28th. And as April comes to a close, the Boston Red Sox season thus far seems to be summed up in three words: Feast or Famine.
In winning efforts, the Sox outscored opponents 72 to 54. However, when tossing one into the loss column, the Sox are outscored 25-60, a dismal number.
Some may say the reason for this rough start is because of the quality of teams we've faced. Fans will remember the Sox being mauled by the Yankees, Twins, and Rays (2-9 in those games). But we've beat up on teams like the Royals, Orioles, Rangers, and Blue Jays (8-3 ). So perhaps the Red Sox problem is that they just can't beat good teams.
If this is the case, Red Sox fans should hide in the nearest closet until June 2nd, because it the schedule only gets tougher.
The Road Ahead
The Red Sox aren't just looking up a mountain in the AL East— they're staring down the barrel of a cannon ready to rip them apart in the month of May. The Red Sox will enter the month of May with a rematch against the squishy Baltimore Orioles. The Sox should take as much confidence as they can from that series because after that it gets far scarier.
Of 30 games from now until June 2nd the Red Sox will play 20 games against teams sitting at .500 or better, and only 10 against teams currently under .500. If their current trend is any indication of their play down that 30-game stretch, that would land them with a 22-28 record on June 3rd. It would be the franchise's worst start since 1997, whose team also sat at 22-28 as of 50 games. That team finished fourth in the AL East at 78-84.
What Got Us Here & How Do We Fix It?
The short answer is starting pitching. With defacto-ace Josh Beckett currently leading the league in hits allowed and just about everyone outside of Tim Wakefield (recently sent to the bullpen) stinking up the mound, it's going to take a few things from the big 3 in the front of this rotation.
Beckett: With so many hits allowed, 13 walks, and more than one home run per nine innings thus far, it's going to take a stark improvement in all facets of Beckett's game to reclaim the title as Red Sox ace and big-game pitcher.
He should be looking to work on his change-up and two-seam fastball more so he doesn't become a one-pitch pitcher when his curveball is not as good as it can be.
Lester: He's allowed the second-least hits of any starter in this rotation— though not that that's saying much— but Lester still has 13 walks and has yet to earn a win this season. The simple fix for Lester is to return to what made him go from a good pitcher to a dominant one: his timing on the mound.
Pitching coach John Ferrell had Lester watch Mark Buehrle last season and pick up on how quickly Buehrle works on the mound and asked Lester to adapt it to himself. Next thing we knew, we had a budding ace.
Lackey: After looking like an excellent acquisition in the first few starts, Lackey found himself being hammered by the Tampa Bay Rays in an outing where he gave up eight earned runs in less than four innings. Lackey still seems to have his flashes of great stuff, even in bad games, but has been hit around by some inferior lineups after dominating some tough ones.
My guess would be that Lackey's issue is more mental and confidence-related than anything mechanical. I think once he gets back on the mound and throws a string of dominant quality starts, the Red Sox fans will see Lackey take this staff on his shoulders and prove Theo's investment to be a wise one.
The Bats Aren't Off The Hook
The Red Sox bats aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball to aide their hurting hurlers. With David Ortiz and J.D. Drew sporting OBPs lower than .300 and AVGs lower than .200, not to mention 42 combined strikeouts, there are too many holes in this lineup to keep rallies going, or to even form them.
The only upside is that Red Sox bench players Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell have seen an increase in playing time with fantastic productivity. But it's unlikely either player could stay healthy in an everyday situation.
Is Help On The Way?
It's far too early to tell if the Sox will be active in the trade market as early as May/June. However, if they are somewhere near that 22-28 mark in mid-May, Theo may start utilizing his phone skills and calling up some GMs to size up what the market looks like.
The only problem with that is the two bats the Red Sox front office seem to covet the most (Prince Fielder & Adrian Gonzalez) are on teams that don't look like they are even close to throwing in the towel. Unless Theo is willing to make a trade that sends the entire Pawtucket & Portland rosters, I don't see those two bats moving into our lineup to help.
To sum it up Red Sox fans, the sky may not be falling just yet, but there are too many cracks to ignore for much longer.
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