With the official balloting results set to be announced January 6, I decided to make my predictions at how this year's MLB Hall of Fame voting will shake out. This is not necessarily how I would vote, but instead a prediction of what I think will happen. Let's look at the ballot.
The First Timers:
Roberto Alomar, Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, Mike Jackson, Ellis Burks, Pat Hentgen, Robin Ventura, Kevin Appier, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, and Todd Zeile.
The Hold Overs:
Tim Raines (third year), Harold Baines (fourth year), Mark McGwire (fourth), Lee Smith (eighth), Alan Trammel (ninth year), Andre Dawson (ninth year), Don Mattingly (10th year), Jack Morris (11th year), Dale Murphy (12th year), Bert Blyleven (13th year), Dave Parker (14th year).
Now onto my predictions:
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF THE VOTE, OFF THE BALLOT FOR 2011:
SP Kevin Appier, Royals: 169-137, 121 ERA+, 1x All-Star
SP Pat Hentgen, Blue Jays: 131-112, 108 ERA+, 3x All-Star, 1998 AL Cy Young
SP Shane Reynolds, Astros: 114-96, 103 ERA+, 1x All-Star
CP Mike Jackson, Indians: 142 saves, 3.42 ERA, 7.6 K/9 IP
1B Eric Karros, Dodgers: .268 BA, 284 HR, 1027 RBI, 1992 NL ROY
1B David Segui, Orioles: .291 BA, 139 HR, 684 RBI
3B Robin Ventura, White Sox: .267 BA, 294 HR, 1182 RBI, 6x Gold Glove Winner
3B Todd Zeile, Cardinals: .265 BA, 253 HR, 1110 RBI
CF Ellis Burks, Rockies: .291 BA, 352 HR, 1206 RBI, 2x All-Star
CF Ray Lankford, Cardinals: .272 BA, 238 HR, 874 RBI, 1x All-Star
Of this group, I think Ventura, Karros, Appier have the best chance of sticking around on the ballot, but after seeing Mark Grace go one and done a few years ago, I don't think they have much of a chance.
BETWEEN 5 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT OF THE VOTE:
1B Andres Galarraga, Rockies: .288 BA, 399 HR, 1423 RBI, 4x All-Star
1B Don Mattingly, Yankees: .307 BA, 222 HR, 1099 RBI, 6x All-Star, 1985 AL MVP
1B Mark McGwire, A's: .263 BA, 563 HR, 1414 RBI, 12x All-Star
1B Dave Parker, Pirates: .290 BA, 339 HR, 1493 RBI, 1978 NL MVP
SS Barry Larkin, Reds: .295 BA, 198 HR, 960 RBI, 12x All-Star, 1995 NL MVP
SS Alan Trammell, Tigers: .285 BA, 185 HR, 1003 RBI, 6x All-Star, 4x Gold Glove
CF Dale Murphy, Braves: .265 BA, 398 HR, 1266 RBI, 2x MVP
DH Harold Baines, White Sox: .289 BA, 384 HR, 1628 RBI, 6x All-Star
These players would be first ballot inductees into the Hall of Very Good, but in the end don't quite cut it to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. That said, I think Murphy and Trammel deserve to be in and that Larkin will continue to gain support and has a chance down the road. Also, as his support has continued to fall, I think this is the year McGwire's totals drop below 20 percent.
BETWEEN 20 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTE:
1B Fred McGriff, Braves: .284 BA, 493 HR, 1550 RBI, 5x All-Star
McGriff's numbers are too good to not eventually earn enshrinement, but he was never the best at his position at any point in his career. Instead he was consistently good, and because of that I think it will take him a few years.
OF Tim Raines, Expos: .294 BA, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 880 SB, 7x All-Star
Raines was among the best table setters in MLB history, and his 880 stolen bases rank fifth all-time. He led the league in thefts four times with a career high of 90 in 1983. He will get in eventually, but not yet.
DH Edgar Martinez, Mariners: .312 BA, 309 HR, 1261 RBI, 7x All-Star
Martinez will be an important case in the candidacy of guys like David Ortiz down the road. An argument could be made for him being one of the best right handed pure hitters of all-time, as his 10 seasons with a .300+ batting average show. It will be interesting to see how the voters treat him, but I think something like 25 percent is a fair guess.
BETWEEN 40 PERCENT AND 74 PERCENT OF THE VOTE:
SP Bert Blyleven, Twins: 287-250, 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+, 6.7 K/9
Blyleven absolutely deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. However, seeing how he only gained 0.8 percent of the vote between 2008 and 2009 from 61.9 percent to 62.7 percent, it would be surprising to see him improve that number by 12.3 percent this year. He may improve to the 70 percent neighborhood, but will have to wait one more year in my opinion.
SP Jack Morris, Tigers: 254-186, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+, 5x All-Star
Morris was the best pitcher of the 1980s, and his numbers make a very good case for Hall of Fame induction. His 7-4 postseason record, including the 1991 WS MVP also help his case. However, his high ERA and lack of significant awards hurts him. In the end, I think Morris will be a Bert Blyleven-type case that takes until nearly his last season on the ballot to get in.
RP Lee Smith, Cubs: 478 Saves, 3.03 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 7x All-Star
Smith's candidacy had been gaining steam the last few seasons, and with guys like Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter paving the way, I think it is only a matter of time until he is indicted. I would expect his support to increase to over 50 percent this year, and in a couple years to be inducted.
THE 2010 HALL OF FAME CLASS:
2B Roberto Alomar, Blue Jays: .300 BA, 210 HR, 1134 RBI, 10x Gold Glove
Alomar has more Gold Gloves than any other second basemen in MLB history, and at the same time has more hits and RBI than Joe Morgan. I rank him as the ninth best offensive second basemen of all-time, above a number of Hall of Famers. A little while back, I wrote an article on why he is a first ballot Hall of Famer.
OF Andre Dawson, Expos: .278 BA, 438 HR, 1591 RBI, 314 SB, 1987 NL MVP
Dawson was the definition of a five tool player, and he had a fantastic career. Aside from his stellar offensive numbers, Dawson also won eight Gold Gloves as a cannon armed right fielder. His 67.0 percent support last year was his highest yet, and with a weak rookie class, this will be his year.
So there you have it, my predictions for how the 2010 Hall of Fame ballot results will play out. Let me know what you think of my predictions, and how you think the voting will play out. I look forward to your comments.
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