After a middling 2008 season (86-76, fourth place), the Cardinals rebounded nicely in 2009 to win the NL Central with a 91-71 record, thanks in large part to the mid-season acquisition of LF Matt Holliday. While the Redbirds managed to re-sign Holliday this off-season, the club lost several other of its key contributors this winter.
Whether the team will be able to compete with the Philliles for the pennant will be largely dependent upon how well the replacements perform.
Key Additions: P Rich Hill and P Brad Penny
Key Subtractions: OF Rick Akiel, 3B Mark DeRosa, 3B Troy Glaus, and P Joel Pineiro
Key Performer, 2010: Brad Penny
Starting Rotation
The top end of the St Louis rotation is very good, otherwise it is filled with question marks. RHP Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24) and RHP Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63) provide the team with an outstanding 1-2 punch. Righty Brad Penny suffered through his second consecutive miserable campaign, posting a combined 11-9, 4.88, mark with the Red Sox and Giants. The Cards believe that pitching coach Dave Duncan can exorcise whatever demons that have afflicted him in recent years.
After Penny, the club will rely on RHP Kyle Lohse (6-10, 4.74) and the hoped-for reclamation of LHP Rich Hill (3-3, 7.80) to fill out the rotation. Carpenter and Wainwright…and a weekend of fright!
Bullpen
Ryan Franklin (4-3, 1.92, 38 S in 43 SO) earned recognition as an All-Star closer last season. Behind him, Tony LaRussa will have hard-throwing sophomore Jason Motte to serve as his setup man and to provide insurance for Franklin.
The revamped bullpen includes southpaws Trever Miller (4-1, 2.06) and Dennys Reyes (0-2, 3.29), as well as righties Kyle McClellan (4-4, 3.38) and RHP Mitchell Boggs (2-2, 4.19).
While it’s not the strongest cast of characters in the league, LaRussa is deft at managing a bullpen and will undoubtedly maximize the production of his relief corps.
Lineup
The heart of the Cardinals lineup is outstanding, but the rest of the lineup will likely have significant problems. First baseman Albert Pujols (.327, 47 HR, 135 RBI), LF Matt Holliday (.313/24/109) and RF Ryan Ludwick (.265/22/97) form as formidable a trio as any team in baseball; but beyond those three there really isn’t anyone the club can count on for quality production. C Yadier Molina is the only one who might resemble a “consistent producer”, but a .293 BA, with 6 HR and 54 RBI doesn’t quite meet the definition (at least not the one I use).
2B Skip Schumaker (.303/4/35) and SS Brendan Ryan (.292/3/37) are serviceable middle infielders who get on base at a nice clip, and Ryan will even steal a couple of bases.
The departure of Ankiel gives Colby Rasmus (.251/16/52) the job in center field. He has a high ceiling and is one of the keys for the offense, but potential sometimes has a way of not manifesting itself. If he manages to live up to his potential then he’ll help lengthen the lineup.
Rookie David Freese (.323, with 1 HR and 7 RBI in just 31 ABs) is expected to win the third base job. According to Baseball America, the St Louis native is the organization’s No. 5 prospect (he’s No. 3 on my list).
Outlook
As I said earlier, I expect this team will win the Central division, but its post-season prospects are tied to how well Freese, Rasmus and Penny perform in place of DeRose, Ankiel and Pineiro. I don’t expect any of them to perform ESPECIALLY well, they will all need the requisite amount of time in the league before reaching their potential.
The truth is that this is not a 90-win team, except for the fact that they play in the Central. It’s not as good a team as the 2009 edition LaRussa ran out onto the field, but they’ll pad their record at the expense of teams like Pittsburgh and Houston. Thus, they’ll likely win one or two more games.
SOX1Forecast: 92-70, 1st place.
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St Louis Cardinals — Top Five Prospects
1. RHP Shelby Miller
2. LHP Jaime Garcia
3. 3B David Freese
4. INF/OF Allen Craig
5. RHP Lance Lynn
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