The Atlanta Braves posted a record of 86-76 last season, an improvement of 14 games over their 72-90 mark of 2008.
The ballclub made several changes this winter and heading into the new season, it appears that it may have to take a step back before it can take a step forward.
The biggest holes to fill will be the departure of RHP Javier Vazquez from the starting rotation and closer Rafael Soriano from the bullpen. Additionally, they’ll have to find replacements at first base (Adam LaRoche), second base (Kelly Johnson) and left field (Garrett Anderson).
It may be too much to expect in one season.
Key additions: INF Troy Glaus, OF Melky Cabrera, OF Eric Hinske, P Takashi Saito and P Billy Wagner.
Key subtractions: 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B Adam LaRoche, OF Garrett Anderson, P MIke Gonzalez, P Rafael Soriano and P Javier Vazquez
Key Performer, 2010: P Tim Hudson
Starting Rotation
Several years ago, the Boston Red Sox believed they had a surplus of starting pitching so they dealt RHP Bronson Arroyo to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for OF Wily Mo Pena. Within the matter of a couple of months, the perceived surplus proved to be a mirage. While Arroyo performs at a high level for the Reds to this day, Pena was an absolute with for the Red Sox.
Fast forward a half-dozen years.
During this off-season, the Braves believed they likewise had a surplus of starting pitching… so they traded RHP Javier Vazquez (and reliever Boone Logan) to the New York Yankees for switch-hitting OF Melky Cabrera and minor leaguer's LHP Mike Dunn and RHP Arodys Vizcaino. It remains to be seen whether their ’surplus’ will prove to be fact or fiction, but it is undeniable that it will not be easy to replace Vazquez’s 15 wins, 2.87 ERA or 219.1 innings pitched.
RHP Jair Jurrjens (14-10, 2.60) assumes the role of staff ace. The 24-year-old avoided any semblance of a sophomore slump with improved performance in almost every aspect of his game. The challenge will be whether he can continue to improve—or even sustain the improvement he’s already managed. Phenom RHP Tommy Hudson, 23, will likewise try to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump after going 11-4, 2.89 in his rookie campaign. RHP Tim Hudson returns after a year almost entirely lost to injury (he was 2-1, 3.61 in seven late-season starts).
The back end of the rotation will consist of sinkerballer RHP Derek Lowe, who is looking to ‘rebound’ coming off a season in which he won 15 games but posted a dismal 4.67 ERA, and RHP Kenshin Kawakami (7-12, 3.86), a one-time MVP of the Japanese Central League.
Kawakami had a nice first year in the big leagues, but his underlying metrics suggest that the Braves did not have the luxury of trading Vazquez (his xERA was 4.80 and command was only 1.80). From top to bottom, it is one of the best and deepest rotations in all of baseball… but it says here they will end up wishing they had NOT traded Vazquez.
Bullpen
The Braves bullpen was very effective last year. Regardless, the club made wholesale changes at the back end in the hope of becoming even better. They traded closer Rafael Soriano to Tampa, allowed setup man Mike Gonzalez to leave via free agency, and dealt Logan to the Yankees.
They signed former closers LHP Billy Wagner (NYM) and RHP Takashi Saito (LAD) away from the Red Sox to be their new closer and setup man, respectively. Both of these guys are older and have a recent history of arm trouble. Wagner pitched a grand total of 15.2 innings last season, so it wouldn’t be shocking to find Saito in the closer’s role at some point during the season. A word of advice for all of you fantasy baseball devotees out there—draft both of these guys in your leagues to ensure low-cost protection.
RHP Peter Moylan (6-2, 2.84) is an under-appreciated side-armer who keeps the ball on the ground—he induced 14 double plays and (remarkably) did not surrender a single home run last year in 73 IP. Behind them the Braves will trot out RHP Kris Medlen (4.26), RHP Manny Acosta (4.34) and LHP Eric O’Flaherty (3.04).
Overall, this is NOT a group that should inspire fear in opposing batting orders.
Lineup
The lineup could be all right, but only time will tell. It is headed by leadoff man CF Nate McLouth (.257 BA, .354 OBP, 11 HR, 36 RBI) and 2B Martin Prado (.307 BA/11/49). The heart of the lineup consists of 3B Chipper Jones (.264/18/71), C Brian McCann (.281/21/94) and SS Yunel Escobar (.299/14/76)a—while it’s not the most productive 3-4-5 combination in the league, it could be serviceable if Jones can ever re-discover his once potent stroke.
The Braves hope 1B Troy Glaus will be sufficiently healthy and productive after missing a year with injury.
Super-prospect Jason Heyward will take over in right field. While it was initially believed he would start the season in the minor leagues, his talent was just too great to ignore any longer. His promotion has a ripple effect on newcomer Melky Cabrera (.274/13/68), who may now find himself displaced in left field by Matt Diaz (.313/13/58).
Outlook
The Braves will be improved in 2010 if they can avoid losing a starter to injury and if Wagner and Saito prove to be healthy.
The rotation should be largely effective, although I expect Kawakami will struggle. The bullpen may be all right, although the team may regret relying upon a 39-year-old and 40-year-old to close things out. The lineup should be able to score enough runs to sustain a run at the post-season.
In my opinion, the Braves should be the National League Wild Card qualifier.
SOX1Forecast: 2nd place, 89-73.
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Atlanta Braves — Top Five Prospects
1. OF Jason Heyward
2. 1B Freddie Freeman
3. LHP Mike Minor
4. RHP Julio Teheran
5. OF Cody Johnson
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