“Pitching wins championships.”
If the Giants are to win the National League West title—which I believe they will—it’ll have to be on the basis of its pitching staff because its offense certainly doesn’t look like it’s capable of scoring a bevy of runs. The offense finished 25th in MLB last season in batting average (.257), 26th in MLB in runs scored (657), and dead last in OPS (.699). This is not an offensive juggernaut.
But as bad as the offense was, the pitching staff was just that good; actually, it was even better.
The Giants finished with the best ERA+ (121), the second-best ERA (3.55), the second-best WHIP (1.281) and the most strikeouts per nine innings (8.1 K/9) in all of baseball. The metrics are skewed by the fact the club plays in the National League West—the lesser of the Four-A divisions—but that said, the staff is still very good and will carry the ballclub into the postseason.
Key Additions: RHP Santiago Casilla, INF Mark DeRosa, 1B/OF Aubrey Huff, and RHP Todd Wellemeyer
Key Subtractions: 1B Ryan Garko, RHP Bob Howry, LHP Randy Johnson, RHP Justin Miller, RHP Brad Penny and OF Rany Winn
Key Performer, 2010: LHP Jonathan Sanchez
Starting Rotation
The Giants have an excellent rotation, headed up by two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, who is arguably the best pitcher on the planet. Lincecum (15-7, 2.48, 261 K in 225 IP) didn’t lead the league in victories or ERA, yet he won the award for the second consecutive season. With a little run support, he could easily have thrown up back-to-back 20-win seasons—of course, when discussing the Giants, that theme (lack of run support) is prevalent for EVERY member of the rotation.
Matt Cain slots in as the No. 2 starter behind “The Freak” and arguably gives the Giants the best 1-2 punch in the National League. He followed up a decent 2008 season (8-14, 3.76) with an even better 2009 campaign (14-8, 2.89), and if he continues to allow fewer and fewer fly balls (which has been the trend in each of his five big league seasons) there is no reason to expect his performance will backslide.
LHP Barry Zito (10-13, 4.03) was an ace in Oakland but has unexpectedly struggled since moving across the bay to San Francisco. The timing of his downturn has led some to speculate that his previous performance may have been enhanced. With that said, the southpaw showed some signs that he may have re-discovered his old form—he was 5-4, 2.83, in his last 15 starts in 2009.
Lefty fireballer Jonathan Sanchez (8-12, 4.24) may be the key to the Giants fortunes in 2010. Many observers believe he has the raw talent to be a staff ace some day (although probably not the “ace” in SF, at least not as long as Lincecum calls the Bay Area his home). Questions about the southpaw seem to revolve around what is going on upstairs, not what’s happening with the left shoulder.
Pulling up the back end of the rotation is the talented Madison Bumgarner, who seems to have lost his penchant for recording strikeouts but who has proven capable of recording outs nonetheless. Pundits believe he could compete for the Rookie of the Year award.
Bullpen
The back end of San Francisco’s bullpen should be very good. It is headed up by closer Brian Wilson (5-6, 2.74, 38 S, 83 K in 72 IP). Righty setup man Bobby Howry departed, but southpaw Jeremy Affeldt (2-2, 1.73) remains behind and will serve as the primary setup guy for Wilson. Otherwise, the ‘pen is rather ordinary, with RHPs Brandon Medders and Sergio Romo back-boning the middle relief.
Lineup
The lineup is undeniably the team’s weakness.
The infield is all right, but will need 1B Aubrey Huff and SS Edgar Renteria to return to the performance levels of previous glory days. Huff replaces the underperforming Ryan Garko at first base, and while he had problems last season he should rebound playing in the National League.
Freddy Sanchez provides solid production at second base—when healthy. Renteria needs to improve on another disappointing season. 3B Pablo Sandoval has incredible skills with the bat and reminds some pundits of Vlad Guerrero. C Bengie Molina will return at catcher and is one of the better offensive producers at the position; but, ultimately, he is just a placeholder until top prospect Buster Posey is ready.
The outfield is below-average. CF Aaron Rowand is pretty good, but the corner outfielders have lacked the power and production that is regularly expected. Enter the versatile Mark DeRosa, who won’t make anyone forget Barry Bonds in left field, but who will at least be serviceable. Nate Schierholtz (5 HR in 285 ABs) will start in RF…’nuff said.
The Giants have solid depth, with Juan Uribe and Eugenio Velez around the infield and Fred Lewis and Andres Torres in the outfield.
Outlook
Pitching will rule in San Francisco. How good the team performs overall will be largely dependent on whether Huff and Renteria can provide any semblance of offensive production. Look for Posey after mid-season, but expect him to be a step back offensively from Molina.
SOX1Forecast: 94-68, 1st place.
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