Predicting how a team will perform before they even gather en masse for spring training is a dicey proposition. Some of the players won’t even be with the team when they break camp in six weeks.
But what’s the fun in being safe?
The Washington Nationals enter spring training with a discernable buzz. Many national sportswriters have said (paraphrasing here), “Gee, the Washington Nationals aren’t going to suck this year. They may improve to being just plain bad.”
Stephen Strasburg is on the front page of ESPN.com and Tracy Ringolsby at Foxsports.com wrote a nice article about Strasburg and fellow phenom Drew Storen.
Eyes are on the Washington Nationals. Reporters have their pencils and notebooks in hand, ready to write the team’s story for 2010. But what will that story be? If they lose less than 100 games, the season will be considered a success by many.
But I don’t think that’s the story that will be written. I think the Nationals will approach the magical (and for them mythical) .500 mark. They might bang into it, perhaps even bend it, and—if all the planets align properly—will break through it.
Let me show you how.
Let’s take a look at the new players brought in by general manager Mike Rizzo:
Ivan Rodriguez—Catcher
Career 162-game average: .299-21-86
2009 stats: .249-10-47
To be clear, if catcher Jesus Flores was 100% healthy, Rodriguez might still be looking for work (well, that’s a slight exaggeration). But that near-guarantee that Flores would be healthy by spring training has been long-since rescinded and now no one is exactly sure when he will be ready to play.
Rodriguez was signed for his defense and veteran presence, not his bat. His .280 on-base percentage last year—56 points below his career average—is a telltale sign of a bat on a downward spiral.
But that’s okay. The thought of Josh Bard walking slowly to the mound to settle down Stephen Strasburg is kind of scary. He’s a modern-day E.F. Hutton: he’ll talk and the young pitchers will listen.
Adam Kennedy—Second Base
Career 162-game average: .277-8-58 (19 steals)
2009 stats: .289-11-63 (20 steals)
Though everyone believed that the Nationals—for the second year in a row—were going to sign Orlando Hudson and—for the second year in a row—they may have won in the long run. Adam Kennedy may be a better fit.
Offensively, Kennedy had the better 2009, though he is not the equal of Hudson defensively. But a $1.5 million patch at second makes a lot more sense than a $5 million patch, especially if the $2 million that went to Chien-Ming Wang was money saved by signing Kennedy.
Would you prefer Orlando Hudson or Adam Kennedy and Chien-Ming Wang with enough left over to sign a Joe Beimel-type reliever?
It’s a no-brainer.
Chien-Ming Wang—Starting Pitcher
Career 162-game average: 18-4, 4.16
2009 statistics: 1-6, 9.64
Without that awful injury-plagued 2009, Wang’s career 162-game average is 20-8, 3.79. Yes, he’s that good. No he wasn’t that good last year, and yes, he can be that good again.
Wang will likely be rehabbing in the minors by mid-May and hopefully will be in the rotation by the beginning of June. He’ll miss roughly 11 games, giving him about 24 starts for the season.
In his healthy seasons, Wang has recorded a decision in 81 percent of his starts and recorded a win in 75 percent of those. If those numbers hold true, Wang would finish the season with a record of 14-5. To be sure, the Nationals aren’t the New York Yankees, so he’ll lose a couple of wins because of the team behind him.
Look for Wang to go 12-7, 3.80 in 2010.
Jason Marquis—Starting Pitcher
Career 162—game average: 12-11, 4.48
2009 statistics: 15-13, 4.04
Over a 162-game season, Jason Marquis has averaged 15 wins per year since he became a starter in 2004. He is one of those pitchers whose supplementary stats don’t look very good, but he is a bulldog on the mound and turns adequate performances into crooked numbers in the win column.
Take a look at John Lannan (who wins 28 percent of his starts) compared to Marquis (who wins 41 percent of his starts)
Career ERA
Lannan: 3.91
Marquis: 4.48
Hits/walks/strikeouts per nine innings:
Lannan: 8.9/3.3/4/6
Marquis: 9.3/3.5/5.3
Opponents batting average/on-base percent/slugging percent
Lannan: .261/.331/.409
Marquis: .267/.339/.428
By every measure, John Lannan is a much better pitcher than Jason Marquis.
Except for wins.
Marquis is a gutty, hardworking pitcher who will win games through guile and genius, not talent. When Lannan learns how to pitch that way, he will become a solid number-three starter.
And Jason Marquis is just the man to teach him how.
Matt Capps—Closer
Career 162-game average (as closer): 4-7, 3.51, 25 saves
2009 statistics: 4-8, 5.80, 27 saves
In 2008-2009, his first two years as closer, Capps average record was 4-6, 2.58, 22 saves. He allowed just 7.5 hits and 1.2 walks per nine innings while striking out 7.5. Elbow trouble in 2009, however, turned his season upside down. His ERA soared to 5.80 as he allowed 12.1 hits and 2.8 walks per nine innings.
By the end of the season, Mike Rizzo will either be a genius or an idiot depending on how Capps pitches this year. The Nationals are betting that a healthy Capps will return to form and again be a dominant closer.
And I think he will, right up until the moment that Drew Storen takes over, making Capps—if he resigns with Washington—a formidable setup man.
Brian Bruney—Relief Pitcher
Career 162-game average: 5-3, 4.27
2009 statistics: 5-0, 3.92
Brian Bruney is a nice relief pitcher but should not be counted on to be a difference maker for the Nationals in 2010.
Over his career, Bruney has allowed just 7.6 hits per nine innings, which is great. Over his career, he has struck out 8.9 batters per nine innings, which is great.
Over his career, Bruney has walked 7.6 batters per nine innings, which is beyond abysmal.
Mike MacDougal, the Nationals erstwhile reliever from 2009, the guy who drove us crazy with all those free passes, walked just 5.6 batters per nine innings, two less than Bruney.
Brian Bruney can’t come out of the bullpen throwing balls and walking batters and yet there is no indication in his past performance to indicate that it will stop.
I’m glad he’s part of the team, but I’d rather see him pitch somewhere other than the 8th inning.
Tyler Walker—Relief Pitcher
Career 162-game average: 6-5, 4.32
2009 statistics: 2-1, 3.06
Bruney was a “big name” pickup while Walker was as afterthought even though Walker had a much better season. Last season, he allowed 7.9 hits and 2.3 walks per nine innings while striking out 6.9.
Over the last three seasons, opponents have batted just .230 against Walker with a .300 on-base percent and a .378 slugging mark.
I’d much rather have Walker filling that 8th inning role.
There are several other additions, but I don’t see any of them making a big difference for the Nationals in 2010. One caveat might be Chris Duncan, who could become a solid fourth outfielder if he is fully recovered from back problems that have haunted him the past few seasons.
Here are your 2010 Washington Nationals:
CF—Nyjer Morgan (.290-3-50, 45 steals)
SS—Cristian Guzman (.275-5-51)
3B—Ryan Zimmerman (.305-35-110)
1B—Adam Dunn (.265-40-100)
LF—Josh Willingham (.265-25-80)
RF—Elijah Dukes (.270-23-75, 20 steals)
C—Ivan Rodriguez & Jesus Flores (.265-14-56)
2B—Adam Kennedy (.265-10-45, 15 steals)
Starting Pitchers
1—Jason Marquis (13-11, 4.04)
2—John Lannan (11-10, 3.75)
3—Chien Ming Wang (12-7, 3.86)
4—J.D. Martin (9-10, 4.11)
5—Matt Chico (8-8, 4.32)
Closer
Matt Capps (5-5, 3.41, 27 saves)
Now that Ross Detwiler is sidelined for up to three months, Matt Chico should secure the fifth spot in the rotation. Craig Stammen will likely hold Wang’s spot until he returns in June.
The Nationals’ starters should garner 55 wins. Last season, the dead-from-the-neck-up bullpen won 24 games. Assuming they win the same number this year, the Nationals will win 79 games in 2010.
It’s going to happen. Really.
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