The Baltimore Orioles suffered through their 13th-straight losing season in 2010 and finished with a 66-96 record. They put themselves in a huge hole from the start, going 2-16 out of the gate. Baltimore went through three different managers last year, but appear to have found their man in Buck Showalter. Under the control of Showalter—who was appointed as head coach on July, 30 2010—the Orioles went an impressive 34-23 over their final 57 games.
There is a lot of young talent here and the future certainly looks bright, but folks have been saying that in Baltimore for quite some time now. Take a look below for my MLB predictions on how they will fare this season in the AL East.
Projected Lineup
Baltimore retooled the middle of their order with the offseason additions of first baseman Derek Lee and designated hitter Vladamir Guerrero, but it's hard saying what these two veterans will provide this offense in 2011.
Lee brings outstanding defense at first, but has to stay healthy to make a big impact. Guerrero had an outstanding run with Texas last year, hitting .300 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI, but you have to wonder if he can keep those stats up at age 36.
Baltimore also went out and added third baseman Mark Reynolds, who hit 32 home runs with Arizona in 2010, but he also hit just .198 with an astounding 211 strikeouts. Left fielder Luke Scott should benefit from having some help around him, as he hit .284 with 27 home runs in easily his most productive year at the plate last season.
The most important piece to the Orioles offense is veteran leadoff hitter Brian Roberts.
Although he managed to play just 59 games last season, if he can stay healthy and come close to his career numbers, the Orioles offense could be in for a huge turnaround.
Right fielder Nick Markakis is a doubles machine, finishing fourth in the league with 45 last year. Markakis' power numbers were down, but if he continues to hit the gaps, you won't hear much complaining from the Orioles.
The two players to keep your eye on are center fielder Adam Jones and catcher Matt Wieters. Jones hit a career-high 19 home runs and has continued to get better with each season. Wieters hasn't quite lived up to his first-round selection—just 11 home runs in 2010—but like Jones, the potential for a big season is there.
The last piece to the lineup is shortstop J.J. Hardy, who was acquire from the Minnesota Twins via trade. Hardy's stats were way down last season, hitting just six home runs with 38 RBI. However, the O's are hoping he can return to previous form when he hit for a combinded 50 home runs over the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Projected Rotation
What is keeping the Orioles from contending in the loaded AL East is their lack of a proven starting rotation. But there is some potential for this unit to rebound off a poor 2010 performance. Jeremy Guthrie cemented his status as the ace of this rotation, going 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA in the second half of last season. If he builds off those numbers, he could surprise a lot of people with his numbers in 2011.
Another guy who appears on the verge of a big season is Brian Matusz, who went 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA in his rookie season. Jake Arrieta is another starter coming off a solid rookie campaign and the Orioles are hoping he can improve off a great finish, where he posted a 3.78 ERA over his final eight starts.
Baltimore had big expectations for Brad Bergesen in 2010, as he went 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 19 starts as a rookie in 2009. However, he really struggled in his second season, going 8-12 with a 4.98 ERA.
Chris Tillman and Justin Duchscherer figure to compete for the final spot in the rotation, but it's hard to expect much out of either of these starters.
2011 Projection: Fifth Place AL East
It's hard to not like the additions of Reynolds, Lee, and Guerrero to go along with a solid core of young players, but the trouble for the Orioles is they play in the AL East. If the O's weren’t playing in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, it would not be surprising to see them make a playoff run with the talent they have on board.
The Orioles will score runs, but stopping opposing teams from scoring even more will be the hard part. They are counting on too many ripe starters in their rotation, and their bullpen has proven to be unreliable. Kevin Gregg might add some stability there, but in the end pitching is going to be their downfall.
The Orioles' MLB odds to win the AL East are currently listed at +1600.
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