Fantasy baseball is a time for players to hunker down and figure out which stars will have the best seasons, which young stud prospects will emerge and everything in between. All that time spent studying numbers and trends brings you to this point: raft day.
What we wanted to do for you, the loyal readers, is provide you with a first-round mock draft with 12 teams to show you who you need to look for and players that you should be wary of taking in such a high spot.
Here is our mock draft, with a special emphasis on the first-round stars that you need to think twice about.
No. 1 Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
The name on the back of the jersey is going to be very appealing to fantasy owners, but there are some warning signs that Pujols might not be the player you were hoping to get.
First, his numbers have dropped in each of the last two seasons. He is still better than most players in baseball, but the gap has definitely closed. He has lost 30 points off his batting average (.327 in 2009, .299 last season) and 117 points off his slugging percentage (.658 to .541).
He is still worthy of being a first-round selection, but his spot on top of the fantasy world is very much in jeopardy.
No. 2 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
There is no denying Cabrera's spot in fantasy baseball. He is going to be 29 years old and just keeps getting better.
Plus, his fantasy value will be even greater since he is going to be eligible at third base later this season.
No. 3 Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Bautista proved that his 2010 season was no fluke with a huge 2011 that should have been awarded with the American League MVP award.
Don't expect him to have another season like the one he did last year (.302, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 105 Runs), just because his average has never been that high.
Look for him to dip slightly, to something along the lines of (.260, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 105 Runs). Considering the lack of power in baseball right now, that makes him one of the most valuable fantasy players.
No. 4 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
Of all the positions in fantasy baseball, shortstop is the most difficult to fill. It has never been an offensive spot, so it is imperative that you get someone in there who can hit.
Tulowitzki has had injury problems in the past, but he has managed to play in at least 143 games two of the last three seasons.
As long as he is on the field, he might be the best player for you to take, simply because of the value he generates due to his position.
No. 5 Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
When you play for the Yankees, you are automatically going to be overrated in fantasy baseball. Cano is a great player, one who is worthy of a late first- or early second-round selection.
But to reach for him in the middle of the first round, with Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Braun still on the board, is ridiculous.
It is not a crime to take Cano at this spot, but it is a reach.
No. 6 Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
With all of the off-field controversy behind him, Braun can focus on just playing baseball again. He will be available for 162 games, and that makes him a lock to be one of the best fantasy players yet again.
Unlike the first five players on this list, Braun comes with the threat of speed. He stole a career-high 33 bases last year, which might be a little excessive. Expect him to get back down to the 20-25 range.
His RBI total could be hurt by not having Prince Fielder in the lineup, but the average and power will make him well worth this selection.
No. 7 Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
After getting his head straight, Kemp finally showed what he is capable of by nearly going 40-40 in 2011.
Even if those numbers are a little lofty for this season, he should still be one of the best and most consistent fantasy performers in 2012.
If you can live with a 30-30 performance and a slight dip in batting average, to about .290, Kemp should be considered a steal with the No. 7 selection.
No. 8 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox
A spike in power last year makes Ellsbury one of the most desirable fantasy players in 2012. He has gotten so much hype to the point where he is going to be overrated.
Nothing in his past—either in the big leagues or minors—suggests that he will repeat his 32 home run performance.
Ellsbury will still be a good fantasy player, with 15-20 homers and 40 stolen bases, but he will not be one of the 10 best players again.
No. 9 Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds know that their window of opportunity to win with Votto as their first baseman will close after 2013, so they went all-in right now.
Votto is going to do his part, by smacking 30-plus homers and 115 RBIs to go along with his .300 average.
No. 10 Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Upton feels like he has been in the big leagues forever, making his debut in 2007, but he is just 24 years old.
He keeps getting better--as evidenced by a career-high 31 homers, 88 RBIs and 21 stolen bases last season--and there is more to come.
If anything, he is undervalued at this spot.
No. 11 Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
The starting market is flush with talent right now, and Verlander is in a battle with Clayton Kershaw for the top spot.
Since Verlander is playing on a better team that is going to score a lot of runs to get him victories, he gets a slight edge. He has been the picture of health throughout his career, and will be in the mix for fantasy baseball MVP again.
No. 12 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox
It's a shame that it took a trade to Boston for people to really appreciate how good Gonzalez is, but that's just the nature of the beast.
He had no problems adjusting to the American League East, hitting a career-high .338. Even if his average doesn't get that high again, 30 home runs and 120 RBIs should convince you to make him a first-round pick.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments