While two teams are still competing in the MLB postseason, the vast majority of the league has moved on to the offseason. Hot stove season is imminent, with several big free-agent names set to shape the complexion of the league next season.
A few weeks will pass before any decisive action unfolds, but the preliminary signs have already sowed the seeds for offseason movement. For fans looking to get a jump on MLB free agency, check out the latest rumors on some of the top names on the market, as well as predictions for their eventual landing spots.
Shields Back to AL East?
Though he currently anchors the staff of the AL champions, James Shields appears unlikely to return to the small-market Royals in 2015. Kansas City seemingly knew that Shields was a rental when it traded for him, and while this postseason has justified that long-term sacrifice, the inevitability of this offseason elicited criticism at the time.
When looking for a potential suitor, it appears Shields may be returning to the AL East. As Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star noted earlier this postseason, the former Tampa Bay Ray could be relocating to Fenway Park:
Boston has emerged as the early favorite for his services, but plenty of other clubs should be in the mix.
Rival executives expect him to fetch a five-year deal worth somewhere between $80 million and $110 million. The largest contract in Royals franchise history was their $55-million pact with Gil Meche. The team did not attempt to engage in contract negotiations with Shields before this season began, and have made contingency plans for his potential departure.
But despite their financial might, the Red Sox cannot be considered a lock to sign Shields. Under general manger Ben Cherington, Boston has adopted an extreme aversion to long-term contracts for over-30 pitchers. It's not hard to envision the Sox refusing to extend themselves past four years, which would likely be inadequate to land either Shields or old friend Jon Lester.
Shields has proven capable of pitching in difficult environments, which is why the Texas Rangers might consider signing the veteran to buttress a starting staff wrecked by injuries in 2014. If the Rangers believe that regression to the mean in terms of injury luck could make them 2015 contenders, Shields looks like a logical choice to end up in Arlington.
Predicted Team: Texas Rangers
Martin a Hot Commodity
Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Russell Martin has experienced a mid-career resurgence following a few down seasons. Re-established as one of the game's premier all-around catchers, Martin may have priced himself out of Pittsburgh, as CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman suggests:
It isn't known what the Pirates offered, but Martin could easily request a big five-year deal considering his stellar season in which he hit .290 with 11 home runs and 67 RBI and was one of only a handful of players with an on-base percentage of over .400 (it was .402).
Two possible comps for Martin would include Miguel Montero, who signed for $60 million over five seasons with the Diamondbacks a few years back, and Brian McCann, who signed for $85 million over five seasons with the Yankees last winter. Both those players were a little younger than Martin, who is 31, but in Montero's case, he signed a year before free agency.
Heyman reported that the Pirates' attempts to extend Martin earlier in the season failed, and now the veteran's gamble will pay off in what will likely be his last big contract. Nonetheless, Pittsburgh cannot be ruled out, simply based on Martin's praise for the city:
But if dollars speak too loudly, then Martin may end up relocating to another NL Central team. The Chicago Cubs appear ready to spend some money as their premium prospects begin to reach the big leagues, and Martin would provide a much-needed upgrade at catcher.
Predicted Team: Chicago Cubs
LaRoche to Milwaukee?
Adam LaRoche has been one of the steadiest and most underrated power sources at first base over the past decade, having swatted at least 20 home runs in nine of his 11 major league seasons. But with the Washington Nationals set to move Ryan Zimmerman to first base, LaRoche no longer has a home in the nation's capital.
Given his steadiness, LaRoche will be in demand for a team seeking a prototypical corner-infield bat to help anchor the middle of the lineup. According to The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, the Milwaukee Brewers have emerged as an early favorite for the 34-year-old's services:
LaRoche likely will not be re-signed by the Nationals, who could move Ryan Zimmerman to first base. But LaRoche lines up nicely as a target for the Brewers, who have toyed with the idea of Ryan Braun moving to first but will likely keep him in the outfield. LaRoche also could draw interest from the Orioles if they lose Cruz, but the Brewers right now seem like the best fit.
Of course, the Brewers have never been heavy spenders in free agency, preferring to bolster their roster through trades. As such, LaRoche's price tag should keep some larger markets in play:
LaRoche has thrived in the National League for most of his career, but according to FanGraphs' metrics, he was the second-worst defensive first baseman of all qualified batters. Therefore, a move to designated hitter in the American League might be in LaRoche's best interests.
In that instance, the Yankees would appear to represent his most natural fit. New York has reportedly flirted with the idea of moving the exiled Alex Rodriguez to first if he returns in 2015, but needless to say, that solution would be suboptimal from an on- and off-field perspective. Given the Yankees' proclivity for veteran free-agent bats, seeing LaRoche in pinstripes would hardly be a surprising outcome.
Predicted Team: New York Yankees
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