The bustle of the MLB postseason is rightfully commanding all the baseball chatter, but many of the players who are still competing could wind up in different uniforms in the spring.
MLB's free-agency period is arguably the most exciting in professional sports, with a horde of high-profile shifts that shuffle the competitive landscape.
Would the Chicago Cubs be battling in the National League Championship Series had they not inked Jon Lester in the winter? How much would the Toronto Blue Jays have missed Russell Martin had he signed elsewhere? And though they missed the postseason, the Seattle Mariners benefited from a bolstered offense after adding Nelson Cruz and his 44 home runs.
Pitching usually steals the free-agency buzz, and plenty of hurlers will be hitting the market this winter. We'll take a look at the top eligible aces and their potential landing spots.
David Price, Toronto Blue Jays
Price has been a trade-deadline headline in each of the past two seasons, going from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Detroit Tigers to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Late in his Tampa Bay tenure, Price was consistently marred by trade rumors, given the Rays’ struggles and his impending high price tag. But he’ll be rewarded in the offseason with the luxury of choosing his next team while cashing in big.
Price is in line to win his second Cy Young Award after going 18-5 with an AL-best 2.45 ERA while leading the Blue Jays to their first postseason berth since 1993. He’s struggled in the postseason—0-7 with a 5.44 ERA in seven career starts—but as one of the game’s sternest southpaws, his resume should prevent any blockades in salary negotiations, as Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer noted.
"And to be sure, what's happened with Price in the postseason isn't going to limit interest in him," he wrote. "He's going to be one of the market's hottest commodities, if not the hottest commodity."
Price will be 31 years old next summer, and concerns of signing starters his age to long-term deals are warranted, But there’s always a team with financial ability that takes a leap, a la Lester ($155 million over six years) and the Nationals’ Max Scherzer ($210 million over seven years).
The $200 million figure that Scherzer and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw hauled has been thrown around Price’s conversation since as early as February.
A reunion with manager Joe Maddon has floated since the skipper opted out of his deal with Tampa Bay last December and signed with the Chicago Cubs—a team loaded with young talent and the proven financial ambition to pursue top free agents. Price said this summer he’ll place a premium on signing with a contender “able to win now and in the years in the future,” and the Cubs are a perfect embodiment.
They won 97 games and advanced to the NLCS with a lineup that’s an average age of 24.8 and, more importantly, mostly locked up for the next three to five years. He’ll also round out a rotation with Lester, a postseason veteran and Jake Arrieta, arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
Arrieta even tweeted his approval earlier this season, prompting a tongue-in-cheek response from Price.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
As great as he is, Zack Greinke has largely been in Kershaw’s shadow since landing in L.A. via free agency three years ago. But Greinke reminded everyone—most importantly, the Dodgers—how truly valuable he is in what was exposed as an extremely top-heavy rotation.
While Kershaw struggled through the first half and Hyun-jin Ryu weathered ongoing injury, Greinke kept the Dodgers afloat and finished with the majors’ lowest ERA (1.66) in 20 years.
Not many would leave $71 million on the table, as Greinke did when he opted out of his contract last week, but the 2009 AL Cy Young winner will command—and likely earn—even more, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes:
...one GM suggested he should get multiple offers for $125 million over five years, at a minimum, with the likely winning bid at about $150 million over five years, or perhaps even more.
There will be plenty of teams shopping for starters this winter, but not many that can claim Greinke’s price tag. Legitimate bidders, according to Heyman, could be the Cubs, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals among others.
But the Dodgers make the most sense. They have one of the top farm systems, one of the best front offices and have shown they’re committed to spending big to win.
"It's got to be the best franchise in the game, I would think," Greinke said via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. "They're in a great situation."
But, as Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes: "Greinke may love L.A., but that doesn't figure to translate into a $75-million hometown discount.”
Greinke knows is arguably more valuable to the Dodgers than any club, which is why he holds all leverage. As Andrew Friedman enters his first full offseason as president of baseball operations, he shouldn’t look further than his own backyard to make his first major signing.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royals
The Royals rolled the dice when trading three top prospects before the deadline to essentially rent Cueto through their playoff push. It’s a common practice among mid-market teams going all-in knowing they likely won’t be able to afford their new acquisition in free agency.
Kansas City is in the ALCS for the second-straight year, has a great clubhouse and ambitious general manager in Dayton Moore, but Cueto will likely be out of its price range.
He’s struggled since arriving, going 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA and a .307 opposing average in the regular season, and is coming off an awful Game 3 performance in the ALCS. That might slightly decrease his value in a pitcher-heavy market, but Cueto will still command top-dollar.
Josh Benjamin of Forbes likened Cueto’s market to the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka, who collected handsomely.
Regardless of how the rest of the postseason plays out for Cueto, the contract that Cueto can realistically expect to land in free agency is likely very similar to the the seven-year, $155 million deal Masahiro Tanaka signed with the New York Yankees after leaving Japan for MLB prior to the 2014 season. That contract that pays $22 million a year. Cueto, whose pitch selection is very similar to Tanaka’s, also has the experience combined with strong postseason play that could potentially give that number a boost.
Cueto, who turns 30 in February, finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in 2014 and led the NL in starts twice in three years, but missed significant time in 2013 with an elbow injury.
The right-hander has been linked to the Miami Marlins, but they'll have to over-spend to land him. They’ll need pitching to keep pace with the emerging New York Mets and Cueto would complement José Fernandez well at the top of an otherwise average rotation.
But another big-market team might make even more sense. The Yankees ended a two-year playoff drought this year but lost the AL East lead late to the Blue Jays. With better pitching, they might not have relinquished the division crown.
As Heyman reported, the Yankees will be in the market for pitching this offseason, and Cueto wouldn’t be out of their price range. With C.C. Sabathia's diminished role and with a team privy to link spending with winning, Cueto in pinstripes is a realistic possibility.
Prediction: New York Yankees
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