Although MLB free agency remains some months away, plenty of fans are already wondering where some of the top players on the market could land.
The free-agent market has become somewhat diluted overall in recent years, with smaller-market teams more able to lock up their talented homegrown stars. But fear not, for general managers will spend hundreds of millions of dollars this offseason in the hopes of becoming or remaining a World Series contender, whatever the case may be.
The three players below are among the cream of the crop of this year's free agents and will command some of the biggest contracts offered.
Predictions for Top Talents
David Price, Toronto Blue Jays
Whether or not you agree Davis Price is the best overall free-agent-to-be, he's the unquestioned No. 1 starting pitcher. That would be true in most seasons and is especially true this winter, with Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke, who can opt out of his deal, the next-best options.
Despite Rogers Centre being a slightly more hitter-friendly ballpark, Price's numbers have actually improved since his trade to the Toronto Blue Jays. You can view below a comparison between his time with the Blue Jays and his time with the Detroit Tigers, per Baseball-Reference.com:
Toronto has to be a strong contender to re-sign Price after he has played so well for the team. Plus, the Blue Jays will want to ensure they didn't part with Daniel Norris and other prospects for a half-season rental, even one as good as Price.
They'll have a ton of competition, though, especially from within their own division. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox should be major players in the Price sweepstakes. And in the event the Red Sox are serious in their pursuit of Price, they might be the victors.
The 30-year-old did dismiss the notion that Dave Dombrowski's arrival in Boston will influence his final decision after Dombrowski was instrumental in his trade to the Tigers.
"I'm not going anywhere because of a GM or because of a coach or because of anyone," he said in September, per NESN.com's Pat Bradley. "No. It changes nothing."
But Boston has an ownership group that has proved willing to spend big in free agency and a new general manager, Mike Hazen, who may want to make his stamp on the team by acquiring an ace like Price to anchor the starting rotation.
Prediction: Price signs with Red Sox
Jason Heyward, St. Louis Cardinals
Jason Heyward will be such an interesting player to watch during free agency. In this year's market, no other outfielder has such a diverse skill set at such a relatively young age—Heyward turned 26 in August. But how much, if at all, will his issues at the plate hinder his potential earning power?
In most situations, his offensive numbers wouldn't be a point of concern. But expectations were set so high for Heyward after his first couple of seasons with the Atlanta Braves. The fact that he's a good hitter instead of a great hitter is disappointing for some.
Here's a look at how his power has fluctuated in the last three years:
Even if Heyward settles in as a 15-homer guy rather than hitting 20 or 25 a year, he still adds a ton of value to his team due to his speed and defense.
He has stolen 20-plus bases in three of the last four years and ranks fourth this year in FanGraphs' baserunning metric. Defensively, Heyward is third among all outfielders in defensive runs saved and second in ultimate zone rating—two of the more reliable defensive metrics.
The Cardinals as an organization are great at evaluating talent, so they won't be too swayed by Heyward's home run and RBI totals. In addition, the player himself seems happy in St. Louis, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
This is ideal for a player like myself. They show a lot of appreciation for me. Whether it's hitting two home runs in one game or throwing somebody out to win a game or making a play running the bases, just hustling. I'm trying to do anything to win and people see that. That's what they care about. They're not looking at overall statistics. There are a few (teams) that would fit me, and here is one of them. That stands out. For me, it stands out especially.
There's a chance the Cardinals find Heyward's price tag too steep when they discover what the market is willing to pay him. However, seeing him in a new uniform next year would be surprising.
Prediction: Heyward re-signs with Cardinals
Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
Although the Yoenis Cespedes trade somewhat dispelled the notion that the Wilpon family is unwilling to spend the necessary cash in order to make the New York Mets a winner, the true test of the Wilpon's commitment will come when Cespedes becomes a free agent.
The addition of the 29-year-old outfielder undoubtedly transformed the Mets offense. CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman listed him as the second-most valuable member of the team this year despite him playing just 56 games in New York:
This figure from ESPN Stats & Info also illustrates Cespedes' impact on the Mets:
Since the Mets worked with Cespedes' agent to increase the window with which they'll be able to negotiate with the player, you have to believe the front office hopes to re-sign him—at least to what it feels are reasonable terms.
Still, Cespedes' value will never be higher, and he knows that. He turns 30 on Oct. 18, so this will in all likelihood be his last significant long-term contract. He won't give the Mets a hometown discount.
Because of that, New York is out as a contender. Until the ownership proves otherwise, you have to remain skeptical as to how willing the team is to sign high-priced free agents. Plus, Cespedes might not be the guy on whom to break the bank given his age and overall numbers across his MLB career.
The Chicago White Sox, on the other hand, might be willing to meet his asking price. They need some power in the outfield, and they should have the financial room to take on a big contract.
Plus, Cespedes would remain in a major market and get to play with fellow Cuban Jose Abreu.
Prediction: Cespedes signs with White Sox
Notes: Free-agent rankings are courtesy of MLB.com's Jim Duquette and MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes. All stats are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise mentioned.
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