For 22 Major League Baseball teams, all of the focus remains on the field and a quest to win a World Series. The rest of the league is making plans to be where eight teams are at right now, led by the start of free agency in November.
This is one of the best free-agent classes in recent memory, with a great balance between hitting and pitching. There is no excuse for teams, whether they are in big or small markets, to come out of this winter without having found a way to address their biggest need.
One big perk of having such a deep and balanced crop of free agents is it works in favor of teams. Simple economics and laws of supply and demand prove that, though in bidding situations, weird things can happen.
Whatever is to come for this year's crop of free agents, it will be incredibly fun to watch. Until that begins, here's the latest roundup of rumors and predictions based on what is being talked about.
Giants Prioritize Pitching
One of the least surprising stories as the offseason begins in San Francisco is the Giants are looking to upgrade their starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner is fantastic, but there are a lot of questions without answers behind him.
The biggest question will be if the Giants are able to bring back Mike Leake after acquiring him from the Cincinnati Reds at midseason.
According to Alex Pavlovic of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area, Leake is at the top of San Francisco's wish list right now:
The focus will almost certainly be Leake, and the right-hander showed what he can do with a two-hitter in his last start for the Giants. Leake didn’t quite live up to expectations after being acquired from the Reds, but the Giants believe he was hampered by hamstring and elbow issues. Fully healthy at the end of the season, Leake had one of the best performances of his career.
Without trying to sound condescending, Leake is the kind of pitcher a team needs when it already has Bumgarner at the top. The 27-year-old has become a consistent, valuable presence in a starting rotation over the last four years.
The Giants have holes in their starting rotation because of free agency (Leake, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong), retirement (Tim Hudson) or age/erratic performance (Jake Peavy, Chris Heston).
Bumgarner has a way of making things look better—because a true ace can put up such ridiculous numbers, everyone else seems impressive by proxy.
However, the Giants saw the limitations to that strategy this year. Leake seems like a player San Francisco's front office won't lose because of his value to the team moving forward and because the Giants traded two quality minor leaguers (Keury Mella and Adam Duvall) to get him in July.
Prediction: Leake re-signs with Giants
Orioles' Plea for Chris Davis
Chris Davis has had a fascinating three-year stretch. He finished third in AL MVP voting in 2013, was a mess offensively in 2014 before being suspended for 25 games after testing positive for amphetamines and missed Baltimore's playoff run, then hit 47 homers with a .923 OPS in 2015.
Now, the Orioles' star first baseman is getting to test the market for the first time in his career. His case will be fascinating to watch play out, as he's a player who could easily fall on his face again because of his problems making contact.
However, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, that isn't stopping Baltimore manager Buck Showalter from pleading with owner Peter Angelos about trying to retain the 29-year-old:
We keep hearing that manager Buck Showalter will make a strong case to owner Peter Angelos to make an effort to re-sign Davis. Davis is essential to allowing the Orioles to be able to compete somewhat with the Blue Jays’ lineup. Losing Davis after losing Nelson Cruz would be a huge blow to the Orioles’ offense. Agent Scott Boras also thinks there’s a chance the Orioles will step up given their resources.
The Cruz aspect of this scenario is interesting because few people would have predicted he was going to follow up a 40-homer season in 2014 with 44 bombs with the Mariners in Seattle this year.
Davis is nearly six years younger than Cruz and has led the league in homers two of the past three seasons, but that also gives him a lot of leverage in any negotiation because power is always in demand.
There's also the matter of how much the Orioles want to invest in offense when their starting rotation finished 22nd in innings pitched and 25th in ERA. This franchise needs to figure out what it's doing with pitchers from a development standpoint.
For evidence of that, just look at what the Chicago Cubs were able to do with Jake Arrieta after acquiring him in a trade two years ago, the erratic use of Kevin Gausman between the rotation and bullpen or why top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey have been unable to stay healthy since the team drafted them.
Something has gone completely wrong with Baltimore's ability to develop high-end starting pitching, which means the franchise has to either change its philosophy with players coming through the system or try to build a rotation through free agency.
Taking that into consideration, the Orioles seem unlikely to retain Davis even if they are able to afford him.
Prediction: Davis signs with another team
Marlins Teasing Major Moves
It's been a few years since the Miami Marlins have gone on a huge free-agent spending spree—last year, the front office did invest a lot of money in locking up Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich—making this winter an opportune time for the front office to tease some big things.
According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins do have some level of interest in two of the better pitchers available this winter.
"The Marlins like impending free agents Johnny Cueto (Kansas City) and Mike Leake (San Francisco), but they would be too expensive unless Jeffrey Loria is willing to spend a ton," Jackson wrote. "Numerous cheaper options will be discussed."
The latter option seems more likely given what everyone knows about the Marlins' spending habits, though if they are willing to open the checkbooks, Cueto could be on the radar simply because his market is so hard to project.
Everyone knows what Leake is—a solid mid-rotation starter who will throw 180-190 innings every year—and that kind of pitcher will get $15-16 million per season.
Cueto has as much upside as any free-agent pitcher this winter not named David Price. He's finished in the top five of NL Cy Young voting twice, posted ERA totals between 2.25 and 2.82 in four consecutive seasons from 2011-14 and thrown at least 212 innings in three of the past four seasons.
However, the 29-year-old doesn't look the part of a workhorse as he ages at just 5'11" and 220 pounds. Pedro Martinez is the gold standard of undersized pitchers who dominated for a long stretch of time, and he performed at an elite level through his age-33 season in 2005.
Cueto isn't at Martinez's level—because few pitchers in baseball history have ever been—and he has already had injury problems. He only made 11 starts in 2013 and missed time earlier this season because of elbow problems. His MRI did come back clean, but the right-hander has looked mediocre in 13 starts with Kansas City.
At his peak, Cueto could get paid like an ace in the $175-180 million range, but all of the questions make it hard to envision him getting a deal at that level unless a team wants to overpay.
The Marlins have an ace in Jose Fernandez who looked terrific in the second half after returning from Tommy John surgery, but they could certainly use help behind him.
If Miami owner Jeffrey Loria gets serious about spending money again—which is a HUGE IF because of his history—Cueto may simply let the Marlins make the highest offer and take it.
It doesn't seem like a scenario that will actually happen, but Loria tends to do weird things that leave people throwing their hands up in ways that are good and bad.
Prediction: Marlins opt for cheaper options
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