Surprisingly, the 2015 Major League Baseball winter meetings have yielded very little results on the free-agent market. There have been some deals, mostly involving relief pitchers, but everyone seems to be waiting for the one big shoe to drop.
The market for starting pitchers has already been set with David Price and Zack Greinke, the two best players available regardless of position, signing with the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks before the baseball world converged on Nashville, Tennessee.
Position players have been a different story as two full days passed with no action, despite having players like Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon available.
Looking into the crystal ball, Wednesday has to yield major results because teams are quick to leave the winter meetings following the Rule 5 draft on Thursday morning.
The rumor mill is churning out a lot of information about available players, so here's the latest rumors and predictions for where they will end up.
West Coast Suitor for Justin Upton
After spending last season with the San Diego Padres, Justin Upton is attracting the attention of another California-based team.
According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the Los Angeles Angels were having "ongoing conversations" with Upton's representatives. In typical rumor fashion, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported that there was "currently nothing happening" between the Angels and Upton.
The Angels have also been linked to Yoenis Cespedes, though that sounds less optimistic than Upton, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News:
Left field was a void for the Angels in 2015, as the group hit a collective .216/.275/.317 with 34 extra-base hits in 556 at-bats, so either Upton or Cespedes would be massive upgrades at the position offensively.
Upton does feel more likely to remain on the Angels' radar because he should come at a lower cost than Cespedes, who has already said he wants a six-year contract.
It would also benefit the Angels to go after Upton because he's two years younger than Cespedes, making him more likely to hold value throughout a long-term deal.
While Upton's stock may be down after he hit just .251/.336/.454 with the Padres last year, he was playing half of his games in Petco Park and other National League West stadiums, like Chavez Ravine and AT&T Park, are not exactly hitter-friendly.
One key note for the Angels is their payroll flexibility is very favorable moving forward. They have $134 million in commitments for 2016, but that figure drops to $91.9 million in 2017 when players like C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver come off the books.
With Mike Trout signed through 2020, the Angels have to strike while their window is open. Upton is a perfect upside play this offseason, because he's hit at least 26 home runs each of the past three seasons with some room to grow.
Prediction: Upton signs with Angels for five years, $110 million.
Chris Davis' Price Set
While the market for Chris Davis hasn't come together yet, agent Scott Boras isn't shying away from setting the price sky high.
According to George A. King III of the New York Post, citing a source when the New York Yankees were thought to have interest in the slugging first baseman, "he wants [Mark] Teixeira money."
As a refresher, Teixeira money equates to $180 million over eight years. While that does sound exorbitant, especially given how injuries have limited Teixeira the past four years, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted Davis would receive a deal with more average annual money (six years, $144 million).
Plus, Boras is a master negotiator who rarely settles for less than what he believes his clients to be worth. That can lead to prolonged negotiations. Remember when Prince Fielder seemed to have no market in 2011, then Victor Martinez got hurt and the Detroit Tigers put up $214 million for nine years?
The Baltimore Orioles continue to hang around Davis, with Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reporting the team met with Boras on Tuesday to discuss the All-Star first baseman.
Kubatko did note in the same report that Pedro Alvarez, who is a free agent after being non-tenedered by the Pittsburgh Pirates, is also represented by Boras. He could be a fallback plan for the Orioles in the event Davis signs elsewhere.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun did report that the Orioles are not likely to make the biggest offer to Davis:
One source said that the organization would not be comfortable agreeing to a $150-175 million deal with Davis, which seems like it could be the market range.
Yet, sources also say the Orioles believe they have a fighting chance to retain Davis -- and that’s where the hometown discount will have to come in.
Davis' market likely doesn't open up until players like Cespedes and Upton are off the market, so his options right now aren't clear.
Yet even trying to sort things out, what teams can pay that much for a first baseman? The St. Louis Cardinals can use the offense, but general manager John Mozeliak already told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick that his team's interest is "overblown."
These things can—and do—change in a hurry, but Baltimore has to be considered the favorite by virtue of being the only club that has shown any significant interest thus far.
Prediction: Davis re-signs with Baltimore for five years, $115 million.
Giants Searching for OF Help
With the new year approaching, the San Francisco Giants are planning to make some tweaks to ensure they keep their streak of championships in even years alive.
According to Morosi on Twitter, the Giants have spoken to "several outfielders," but the team has a preference of Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward or Dexter Fowler over Cespedes and Upton "due to defense."
Gordon and Fowler make sense for the Giants because they need a left fielder. Fowler has played center field throughout his career, but FanGraphs' defensive metrics have him rated as the least valuable player at the position and his minus-57 defensive runs saved is better than only Matt Kemp since 2009.
Moving Fowler to left field at AT&T Park, which has a massive outfield, will help hide his deficiencies with the glove.
Gordon is a tremendous defender in left field, with positive defensive runs saved totals every year since 2010, and knows how to handle a big outfield coming from Kauffman Stadium.
Gordon has been the superior offensive player since 2010, posting nearly 38 more points of offensive value by FanGraphs metrics, but Fowler does have a slightly higher on-base percentage (.364 to .355).
It helps Fowler's negotiating power that he's two years younger than Gordon, who is also coming off a season in which he played just 104 games due to a groin injury.
Since Morosi noted the Giants were looking at outfielders for their defense, Gordon seems like a better option for the team. If they want to take on a younger player more likely to maintain value over the course of a deal, Fowler is the option.
Prediction: Giants sign Gordon for four years, $72 million.
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