We will likely remember the 2016 MLB draft more for its depth than its top-end talent. Plenty of promising prospects in the draft are capable of bolstering a farm system, but there are no can't-miss future stars in the mold of Bryce Harper or Kris Bryant.
In turn, most front offices are probably going to approach the first round with the mindset of addressing an organizational need rather than merely going for the best player available. There isn't a major difference-maker in Round 1 outside of the top seven or eight picks, so it comes down to filling roster holes.
Let's check out of a complete mock draft of the opening round, including the compensatory selections. That's followed by a closer look at the top players on the board, before the three-day event gets underway on June 9.
Round 1 Mock Draft
Analyzing Top Prospects
1. A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
Puk has the stuff to become a top-flight starter in the major leagues. His fastball can reach the upper 90s, and he also has a solid changeup and developing slider that should become a reliable out pitch with a little more seasoning.
The question is whether things will ever click with his command. He's struggled to contain his walks at Florida, racking up 31 in 65.2 innings across 14 starts before the NCAA tournament. He has to improve in that area in order to become an ace.
Gators head coach Kevin O'Sullivan is confident the lefty will make the necessary adjustments as he gains more experience, per C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer:
I mean, I'm going to say this again, go back and look what his video looked like out of high school and see the progression he's made—everybody's trying to pick him apart. We're still talking about a kid from Iowa, I see the improvement he's made over the last three years. Everyone says why is he up-and-down, well, he's a 6-7 lefty who doesn't have a lot of innings under his belt. He's gotten a lot better.
The bottom line is that it's tough to showcase consistency from start to start when the control isn't there. A couple of seasons in the minor leagues, where the focus is on development rather than winning, can help him to at least make his command less of a concern.
Furthermore, if the organization isn't convinced it can count on Puk in the rotation, he could make the shift toward becoming a potentially dominant reliever, a la Aroldis Chapman. That limits the downside of taking him inside the top five and maybe first overall.
2. Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) H.S.
Groome dominated his senior season in high school. His combination of fastballs and curveballs overwhelmed a majority of the players at that level. In turn, he produced some eye-popping numbers, as relayed by Matt Manley of the Shore Sports Network:
Striking out more than two batters per inning makes quite a statement. That said, the difference between high school hitters and pros, even at the lowest levels of the minor leagues, is enormous. So those numbers are necessary to become a top prospect.
It's going to take some time for him to learn how to pitch, though. He's relied on his fastball, which is good but not great in the mid-90s. That means he must polish his curveball and changeup to keep pro hitters off balance.
Nevertheless, Groome has the skill set to lead a rotation one day. All three of his main pitches have shown plus potential, and there's still time to tinker with a slider if he wants more variety. It's just going to take a while for everything to come together.
3. Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
If Lewis is still on the board at No. 3, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Atlanta Braves don't pick him. The power-hitting outfielder is exactly what the rebuilding organization needs after spending the past couple of years stockpiling young pitchers.
The Mercer standout has shown effortless power to all fields. His natural pop could become even more promising as he fills out his frame with more muscle. The Southern Conference provided a little taste of his capabilities:
While the amount of movement in his swing, including a high leg kick and a bat waggle, may concern some teams, his motion has a nice flow to it. Trying to make him more quiet at the plate could take away a portion of his bat speed, and it's not worth losing the power potential.
The other aspects of Lewis' game are either average or slightly above at this stage. He's not a generational five-tool prospect. But for the Braves, who desperately need young power hitters who can take an accelerated trip through the minors, he's an ideal fit.
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