In an era of instant gratification, the MLB amateur draft takes a hit.
Few, if any, top prospects selected Thursday night will ascend to the majors over the next year. The top high school standouts—some of whom will forgo signing for college—will take years of seasoning before realizing their big league aspirations.
As a result, the MLB draft doesn't receive the frenzied following of the NFL and NBA drafts. With team needs mattering far less and signability issues swaying decisions, mock drafts rise in difficulty.
Making matters tougher, this year's class contains no surefire top pick for the Philadelphia Phillies to snag. Let's take a look at how the opening round will unfold before highlighting some of this year's top prospects.
A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
If the Phillies reach for the highest ceiling, they'll take A.J. Puk to open the draft. Despite the left-handed pitcher's inconsistencies with the Florida Gators, he has the makings of a potential ace.
The 6'7", 230-pound junior has registered 95 strikeouts over 70 innings this season, limiting opponents to a .195 batting average. But he has struggled with his command, issuing 31 walks and hitting eight batters. In his latest NCAA tournament start, he relinquished five runs in 4.1 frames.
A towering lefty with a heater in the high 90s, he's a scout's dream on the mound. Of course, measurables and stuff don't always equal production.
If he never matures into a dependable starter, he could transform into a lethal weapon out of the bullpen. That's not, however, what the Phillies should expect out of their No. 1 selection.
Andrew Miller, another 6'7" lefty and highly touted prospect, found a second life as a reliever. This happened for his third team six years after he was selected No. 7 by the Detroit Tigers and flipped to the Miami Marlins for Miguel Cabrera.
Craig Kimbrel, who was always viewed as a reliever, went in the third round. Philadelphia should only take the plunge on Puk if it's confident of his starting potential. In a draft without any mouth-watering future superstars, his upside as a perennial 200-strikeout workhorse upstages the control concerns.
Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
Investing premium picks on polished position players has worked well in recent years. Both Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto were drafted early in 2014 as college juniors, and they made their mark the following season. Among last year's headliners, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi have flashed star upside in the minors.
One of this year's top college hitters, Nick Senzel could be the first 2016 draft pick to reach the big leagues. The third baseman has raked during his junior season in Tennessee, batting .352/.456/.595 with more doubles (25) than strikeouts (21).
One of the draft's safest picks should secure a top-10 selection, but there's little consensus on where he'll fall. MLB.com's Jim Callis has the Cincinnati Reds grabbing him with pick No. 2. Baseball America's John Manuel projects him falling to the Oakland Athletics four spots later.
Although the same was said of Swanson, last year's No. 1 selection, Senzel lacks the lofty ceiling of such an early choice. He gradually displayed more power with the Volunteers, but he still finished with 13 homers over three years.
Per the Philadelphia Inquirer's Matt Gelb, Tennessee head coach Dave Serrano believes his player has the tools to provide more than gap power.
"Nick, right now, is more concerned with being a good hitter," Serrano said. "He drives the ball to right center well. He's got power to all fields. The power is there."
Puk fell to Cincinnati in Manuel's mock, but this simulation has Philadelphia taking the southpaw first. That prompts the Reds to take Senzel, who is a sensible replacement for the recently traded Todd Frazier at the hot corner.
Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
Kyle Lewis murdered baseballs all year for Mercer, batting an incredible .395/.535/.731 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI in 61 games. Those video game numbers (assuming an expert is playing on rookie) earned him Baseball America’s 2016 College Player of the Year award.
The outfielder blended contact and power at elite levels while walking in 21.9 percent of his plate appearances. As he told Baseball America's Jim Shonerd, he's not operating like many burgeoning MLB stars:
I’m not trying to go up there and just slug home runs and swing for the fences. I’m trying to put hard line drives in play consistently. I think that if you try to hit low line drives consistently that you’ll get the elevation and you’ll get some balls out of the park, and I’ve been able to do that. But I think that as an overall hitter, I try to just be a hitter for average.
If the Reds and Phillies pass, Lewis could become the latest Georgian native to stay home. According to FanRag Sports' Tommy Stokke, the Atlanta Braves are in play to make a hometown selection once again:
The Braves haven't picked a position player in the first round since 2010, so high school southpaw Jason Groome is also in play. Yet no organization is 100 percent attached to a particular approach, so look for Atlanta to expedite its rebuild by choosing Lewis.
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