The rarest find in free agency is a 10-year contract. There have only been a few, and there isn't exactly an abundance of candidates for one this winter.
There is one, though. If anybody is going to land a 10-year contract, it's Jason Heyward.
It may sound silly to think that Heyward is worthy of a 10-year contract, as it's not like the star right fielder is obviously the best player on the open market. You could argue that David Price was, and he only got a seven-year contract. With him gone, you could argue that Zack Greinke is the best player left standing—and he won't be getting a 10-year contract either.
But though Heyward may not be the "best" player on the open market, it doesn't require a leap to say that he's the most attractive of the available options.
Whereas most free agents are already on the wrong side of 30 or nearing it, Heyward is only 26. And while many of his fellow position players have only one or two skills to offer, Heyward is the total package. He's a good offensive player and is easily the game's best defensive right fielder.
That's why there are big projections for the former Atlanta Brave and St. Louis Cardinal's next contract.
And yes, that includes some 10-year projections. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors projects Heyward to earn $200 million over 10 years. And even that might be selling him short, as Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated calculated that Heyward could be worth well over $300 million in a 10-year deal.
But this is not the consensus. FanGraphs has Heyward pegged for only a seven- or eight-year contract. Elsewhere, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and Jim Duquette of MLB.com are skeptical that Heyward will get 10 years. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports didn't come out and say it, but he seems to agree.
All this pretty well sums up the nature of Heyward's free agency. He may be a very attractive player in the present, but him getting a 10-year deal is...well, complicated.
There's no doubt that Heyward is going to land some sort of very-long-term contract. If it's not 10 years, it shouldn't be any shorter than seven years.
His youth will ensure that. Heyward's 26 years make him abnormally young for a free agent, and that youth is especially welcome at a time when teams are increasingly afraid of committing big bucks to aging players. Geezers are out. Young talent is in.
Mind you, Heyward can't claim to be younger than Alex Rodriguez was when he landed his first 10-year contract. But he can note that A-Rod was coming off his age-31 season when he landed his second 10-year contract in 2007, as was Albert Pujols when he landed his in 2011. Most recently, Robinson Cano was coming off his age-30 season when he got his in 2013.
Another thing that helps: Heyward can argue that he's a more complete player than A-Rod in 2007, Pujols in 2011 or Cano in 2013. They were great hitters first and foremost. Hitting is just one of the services Heyward provides.
That's reflected in the fact that Heyward has been among the Gods of WAR since breaking into the league. FanGraphs ranks him 11th among position players in WAR since 2010. Baseball-Reference.com ranks him eighth.
No, WAR isn't perfect. But it's the best stat we have for considering overall value, and "overall value" is what Heyward is all about.
At the plate, Heyward is patient enough to post above-average walk rates and has recently become a strong contact hitter. His power isn't great, but he produces enough to hover right around average. Put it all together, and you get an above-average hitter.
Heyward's most underrated talent is his baserunning. He's topped 20 stolen bases in three of the last four seasons and has added plenty of extra baserunning value by taking extra bases in other ways. He doesn't have Billy Hamilton's speed, but his mix of athleticism and smarts elevate him despite that.
As for Heyward's defense, well, he has a shelf full of hardware that can vouch for that. But in case anyone would rather take it from the numbers, he leads baseball in both ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved since 2010.
And yes, teams do care about these things.
Every team can see what the Kansas City Royals have done with their emphasis on defense. And as far as measuring defense goes, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that there generally is "more confidence in defensive metrics" around the league.
Between his youth, his past accomplishments and his deep bag of tricks, it sure does sound like Heyward has an easy sales job on his hands this winter.
But, yeah. It's not actually that straightforward.
Though Heyward can argue that he's more of a complete player than the guys who signed MLB's last three 10-year free-agent contracts, the big difference is what exactly teams would be betting on. Those last three were betting on Rodriguez, Pujols and Cano's respective bats as primary sources of value.
Heyward's value, on the other hand, does not come primarily from his bat. It comes from what he can do with his legs on the bases and on defense. Particularly the latter. That could actually be seen as a red flag.
"I really have a pet peeve with Heyward," one talent evaluator told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. "So much of his value is tied up in defense that it makes me nervous giving him a huge deal. The speed and defense will begin to erode in the 30s and then you are left with a tweener bat."
This evaluator may actually be understating the level of concern regarding Heyward's future, especially where his defense is concerned.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently noted that there is evidence that defensive skills peak sooner than offensive skills, and the aging curves presented by Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Box Score somewhat bear that out. Defense tends to be steady until a player gets into his late 20s, and then it tends to decline sharply. And though Heyward is young, his late 20s are within sight.
So for executives, the big fear of signing Heyward to a long-term deal is a valid one. He may have plenty of prime years left in theory, but that won't be the case if his baserunning or his defense abandon him. Take those two things away, and his bat isn't nearly good enough to justify a long-term expense.
But this doesn't mean Heyward won't be able to find a 10-year deal. There's a factor we haven't discussed yet, and it's one that could appeal to both Heyward and his prospective suitors:
An opt-out clause.
Opt-out clauses are becoming popular in long-term contracts. Giancarlo Stanton's 13-year, $325 million megadeal has one after the sixth year. David Price's seven-year, $217 million contract has one after the third year. Heck, Zack Greinke is only a free agent now because he used the third-year opt-out in his six-year, $147 million contract.
As Jeff Todd argued at MLB Trade Rumors, Heyward is a prime candidate to negotiate an opt-out clause into his next deal. If he does, he could probably get one that would allow him hit free agency again after four or five years.
Fortunately for him, opt-out clauses have some appeal to teams as well. They offer a very real chance of scoring big in the first half of a deal, and then getting out of a sunk cost in the second half. Price's contract is a good example. The Boston Red Sox are technically making a $217 million roll of the dice, but there's a good chance it will only be a $90 million roll of the dice.
This could be what gets Heyward a 10-year contract. Though his suitors would probably prefer something in the seven- to nine-year range, having the safety net of an opt-out clause could be why one or more of them goes the extra mile with a 10-year contract offer.
It's not a slam dunk that Heyward will find a 10-year contract. But he is unquestionably the best candidate for one among this winter's free agents, and the modern game's acceptance of his particular talents and of opt-outs definitely doesn't hurt.
There are going to be a lot of numbers on Heyward's next contract. One of them might just be "10."
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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