The Cincinnati Reds have a multimillion-dollar predicament on their hands.
In Johnny Cueto, the Reds have one of the best right-handed starters in all of baseball. What they don't have, however, is a multiyear contract for the 29-year-old star.
Unfortunately for the organization and its fans, that multiyear deal may never come to fruition.
The Reds aren't exactly flush with cash, their farm system could use a little boost, and they don't look like a team that's poised to compete for a division title in 2015 (let alone a playoff spot).
So instead of wasting time trying to figure out how they're going to re-sign Cueto (or not re-sign him), why not deal him and look to rebuild for a run following the 2015 season?
It only makes sense, right? No? Here are three reasons to help change your mind.
Little Chance to Extend Beyond 2015
When I try to envision the negotiations between Cueto and the Reds' front office, I imagine it going something like this:
The Reds "could" extend Cueto beyond the upcoming season, but do they really have the financial reserves to extend him? In short, no.
Before getting into the logistics of a long-term deal, take a look at the high-profile signings of recent pitchers in order to get a feel for what extending Cueto will really cost:
Cueto is slightly older than the average of the high-profile pitchers in the chart above, and while that would seem to work in the Reds' favor, our most recent comparisons come in the form of a 30-year-old Jon Lester and a 31-year-old Max Scherzer.
Prior to the 2015 season, Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner, received a seven-year deal worth $210 million, while Lester, a three-time All-Star, received a six-year, $155 million contract.
Of all the players listed above, Scherzer and Zack Greinke probably give us the best range of possible contracts for Cueto.
Scherzer's $210 million deal would be the absolute ceiling for a guy like Cueto, and Greinke, who got a six-year, $147 million deal prior to the 2013 season, represents Cueto's baseline (barring injury).
For argument's sake, let's settle somewhere in the middle of those two average annual salaries ($27.25 million) over six years. That makes for a six-year deal worth a whopping $163.5 million.
How does that fit into the Reds' plans for the future? Not very well.
Excluding arbitration-eligible players and a potential contract extension for Mike Leake, the Reds have $82.03 million in payroll obligations for the 2016 season, per Baseball Prospectus.
Add Cueto's hypothetical contract from above to the group, and we're looking at a total of $109.28 million in salary commitments with just eight players under contract.
Given the Reds' midlevel payroll, this leaves them essentially no room to account for arbitration-eligible players, rookies, and any necessary signings.
Beyond 2016, do you like Aroldis Chapman? How about Jay Bruce? Signing Cueto in conjunction with their current post-2016 obligations makes the prospects of signing one of those players much more difficult, while the idea of signing both becomes a pipe dream.
Need any more convincing? Earlier this month, the Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told the MLB Network (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) that he didn't believe the team could sign Cueto to a long-term deal.
"I'm not sure we'll be able to, because the numbers are obviously starting to skyrocket and it's very tough in our market to continue to retain guys at a high price like that," Jocketty said. "We'll continue to work on that and see where it comes out."
To be fair, he did state that they'll "never say never." But does that first quote really instill the kind of confidence you need to believe that they're capable of locking Cueto into a long-term deal?
Long-Term Financial Flexibility
This goes hand in hand with the fact that the Reds don't really have the funds to make a Cueto extension possible, but it's more than just that.
The Reds have some other high-value players coming up on free agency, including two other potential big earners in Chapman and Bruce. Beyond these two, they need to worry about players who are due for arbitration and the prospects who will come up and fill holes as the team would progress through a hypothetical six-year deal.
The Reds could do a lot with the projected $27.5 million annual salary outlined above. For a mid-market team like Cincinnati, that amount of money could give the Reds enough to lock up prospects to long-term deals, or, it could be used to bring in free agents who will help supplement the roster.
The Reds need a long-term option at shortstop (the verdict is out on Eugenio Suarez) and could be in the market for a new right fielder and closer if one or more of Chapman and Bruce decide to walk in free agency.
Beyond that, left field will again be empty following the 2015 campaign, as Marlon Byrd's contract is set to expire following the season's culmination.
That extra money the Reds would save from trading Cueto can be used to fill those holes.
Consider the recent string of free-agent position players who have signed in free agency, along with their average annual salary:
That money the Reds had to earmark for a possible Cueto extension could've been used in the signing of any one of these players.
Though it's unlikely that it would've jumped to sign any of them, the team could've taken one last stab at success in 2015 and addressed holes in its roster by signing the likes of Nori Aoki and Asdrubal Cabrera for a combined $12.2 million, and that's only half of the money Cueto will likely earn following 2015.
I guess what we're trying to say here is that in a market like Cincinnati, it's tough to justify possessing the luxury of a $25 million-per-year pitcher when you already have $95 million locked up in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips between now and the culmination of the 2017 season, per Cot's Contracts.
High-Value Return
The most enticing reason to trade Cueto comes when you assess what the Reds could get in return for his services. Trading Cueto guarantees two top prospects and the potential for a little more to round out the return package.
Consider the high-profile teams that could be in the market for a starting pitcher of Cueto's caliber:
Those are four teams projected by Baseball Prosepctus to finish at or near the top of their respective divisions. Meanwhile, depending on their view of the 2015 season, organizations like Baltimore and the Yankees warrant a mention based on their current rosters and projected finishing positions.
Fortunately for the Reds, some of those teams are well represented in the lists of top farm systems.
Here's a roundup of how some of the top sports sites rank the farm systems of the six teams mentioned above:
The Sox and Dodgers are the two teams the Reds would most like to deal with, and rightfully so given the depth of their farm systems.
Of all the teams mentioned above, the Red Sox seem like the most likely potential suitor. In fact, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe confirmed Sunday that the Sox were one of four teams who made a serious push for Hamels.
In that article, Cafardo noted that the package was "heavy on the major league side, trying to avoid giving up any of their top prospects."
If this is the case, then the Reds and Red Sox aren't a match either. However, the Sox rotation is clearly the weak point in their roster. The team has what looks to be a collection of No. 2 and No. 3 starters, with the only potential No. 1 lying in the newly acquired Rick Porcello.
If the Red Sox lose a starter during the spring, or decide that their depth isn't enough, then they could be a perfect landing spot for Cueto.
The Reds would be happy to deal with the Sox if Boston proves willing to deal one or more of its high-level prospects.
A package comprised of LHP Henry Owens, 3B Garin Cecchini and SS Deven Marrero or Sean Coyle would be a great look for the Reds. That's the type of haul that could help send the Reds' farm system from the middle of the pack to near the top of the majors.
Wrap-Up
The Reds don't have a lot of wiggle room in this Cueto situation. The team doesn't look like it will be competitive late enough in the season to warrant keeping the 2014 Cy Young runner-up around, and it also doesn't appear as though the money is there for them to re-sign him.
My answer to the issue is to trade Cueto.
As great as the Dominican Republic native has been for the organization, and as much as he's contributed to its success, the Reds aren't the Yankees or the Red Sox, and they can't afford to lock up such a large portion of their available funds into so few players.
Cueto himself set an Opening Day deadline for negotiations, and it seems implausible that the Reds could get a deal done before said deadline.
If that's the case, and Cueto has another Cy Young-caliber season, he's as good as gone.
To trade Cueto, or not to trade Cueto. That is the question!
Thoughts on the issue? Leave them in the comment section below.
Follow me on Twitter: @TylerDuma.
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