It was only a couple months ago that the Rangers were (near) the top of the baseball world. They fulfilled their role as David, when slaying the Goliath Yankees, and endeared themselves to millions of baseball fans across the country with their love of all things hustle.
But things changed for the Rangers in a New York minute (you knew that New York would get back in the discussion) when Cliff Lee, their undisputed ace, shocked the baseball world and fled back to Philadelphia. Just like that, the Rangers rotation—a strength—turned into a weakness. Panic spread across Texas.
So they did what any right-minded club would do—go sign the next biggest name available. Because if you can't have the prom queen, you should at least get her still cute best friend...right? Except in this case, it's wrong...very wrong.
The Rangers are closing in on signing 3B Adrian Beltre to a 6-year, $96 million dollar deal that frankly makes, well, no sense. There are definitely positives to Beltre—he's coming off a big season, he's one of the best fielding third baseman (and players) in all of baseball, and he does have a power bat. But for the few reasons that the deal does make some sense, there are many more reasons why it doesn't.
Why? Let's break it down:
- Beltre will be 32 years old a week into the season—not ancient—but definitely edging towards the downside of his career. On top of that, this will be his 14th season. If there's such a thing as a "young" veteran, Beltre isn't it. Do you really see this guy still going strong when he's in his 17th, 18th or 19th year of his career (or the second half of his contract)?
- In 13 previous seasons, Beltre has made the postseason ONCE! That was in 2004-2005, while still with the Dodgers. Beltre's line was .267 AVG, one RBI, zero extra-base hits, three K's, zero BB's—a series that saw the Dodgers lose handily to the Cardinals in four games. For the record, that was the same year he had his breakout season, when he finished second in the NL MVP race.
- Beltre is notorious for having big years in the last year of his contract (see 2004 with Dodgers, 2010 with Boston). I think we saw with Seattle what happens when the guy isn't as motivated to play for the next big contract
- Texas is a SMALL market team. Giving an aging player a deal averaging $16 million a year is ABSURD. Look at the Yankees with A-Rod. A-Rod is making $30 million a year for the next eight seasons, yet is already being hampered with injuries. Throwing this amount of money at guys over 30 years old with 10+ years of experience is a huge risk, especially for a team like Texas.
- As a team, Texas had a salary of around $55 million last year, which ranked 26th in the majors. That means that they're going to give Beltre a contract that composes nearly 29 percent of their salary from last season.
- How was this the price set for Beltre this offseason? Carlos Gonzalez—a much younger OF coming off a major season, who has more upside than Beltre, just agreed to a seven-year, $80 million deal with Colorado. Are we to believe that Beltre is worth $16 million more (and a year less) than CarGo?
- Where is Michael Young going? Remember, your CURRENTLY highest-paid player who JUST HAPPENS to play third base. He has three more years left on his deal, worth $48 million. Are the Rangers ready to eat $16 million a year for Young to have Beltre play the same position? Young is 34 years old and has a big contract for the next three seasons. What team is going to be willing to eat that amount of money while taking Young on the downside of his career? On top of that, Young has a no-trade clause in his contract with 22 teams on it, further limiting the options the Rangers have with him.
Essentially, the Rangers panicked. Look at the stats between Young and Beltre last year. Did Beltre have an advantage? Yes. But not a major advantage, as Young—one of the most consistent players in baseball—had another strong season.
So what if they move Young to DH, since Vladimir Guerrero wasn't re-signed. Young has DH'd in only 25 games since breaking into the majors in 2000, but there's no room at SS (Elvis Andrus) or 2B (Ian Kinsler) where Young has had any other experience to play.
The Rangers needed a pitcher to make up for the loss of Lee, not Adrian Beltre. There's a reason the Angels—a team with much more money than the Rangers—only offered Beltre $70 million, and the Athletics only offered him $64 million.
They say everything is bigger in Texas; I guess that means the mistakes are, too.
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