The Rays closed the second half with a good week, going 4-2 against the Jays and the A's.
Despite the 4-2 record, the Rays let one slip away Sunday, as they took a 3-0 lead into the seventh inning and the stellar bullpen showed a second straight rocky outing.
Perhaps the break was needed.
Another disappointing facet of the Rays' losses was that they only gained one game against the Yankees after they were swept by the Angels. Now the Rays sit 3.5 behind the Yankees and 6.5 behind the Red Sox.
Here are some thing to look forward too:
Despite being 6.5 games behind the Red Sox, here is some good news for the Rays, especially right after the All-Star break. Since June 14, the Red Sox have only played two series against teams with a winning record. Even though the Rays caught a hot streak, they just couldn't gain any ground against the Sox.
However, to close the season, Boston has 18 series against teams with winning records. This should shape much of the season, and allow the Rays to at least gain some ground.
Not to mention the head to head battles of the two teams.
As for the Yankees, they have always given the Rays trouble in head to head matchups, but they are a team that is inconsistent. They have 14 series against teams with winning records, and a date in St. Petersburg at the end of the season that could determine the wild card in the AL.
Lets look in depth at all three teams and where they stand in AL Rankings.
runs/home runs/hits/batting average/ops
Boston 3/ 4/ 7/ 7/ 3
Tampa Bay 2/ 3/ 4/ 4/ 2
New York 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 1
It is insane how close these three teams are in hitting. Boston clearly last (but not doing too shabby), and New York and Tampa know how to score runs. Boston's stats might be down a little because of David Ortiz's slump, but he can't do as bad as he did in the first half.
Because the hitting is so close, pitching and defense might be the deciding factor in which two teams come out of the division.
Starter ERA/ Relief ERA/ Errors/ Fielding %
Boston 5/ 1/ 8/ 5/
Tampa Bay 9/ 2/ 6/ 9/
New York 12/ 9/ 10/ 7/
As you can see, the Rays and Red Sox have a definite advantage over the Yankees in pitching.
The Yankees are scary because they are old. Burnett has never been consistent, they don't have a lot of bullpen depth, but they do have a true star in CC Sabathia.
The Red Sox have tons of pitching depth, and are geared towards a postseason run. They have the bullpen to do it as well, being the number one rated bullpen in the AL.
Papelbon is a true closer who is pretty much lights out.
The Rays, after a terrible start have regained their pitching ways of last year.
Scott Kazmir can't be as bad as he was in the first half, and they also, like the Red Sox, have plenty of depth in the rotation and bullpen. The bullpen has been lights out since April, and other than last night JP Howell has been untouchable.
So where does that leave us?
I believe Boston is the definite favorite, and should win the AL East, barring some injury of some sort. They have pieces to make a trade at the deadline to make their team better, and a great farm system if people do get hurt.
Tampa Bay would be my choice to get out of the Wild Card in a tight one.
They play well against the AL East, they rely on more than home runs to win ball games, have a deep rotation with a shut down bullpen. Also because of the youth I don't see any injuries down the home stretch.
Which is what I worry about with the Yankees.
They are old, have bullpen problems, and an offense that relies on home runs. They have played well recently, despite being swept, but I don't think they will do anything at the deadline to make their team significantly better, and because of that I do not think they can outlast the Rays until the end.
Despite the actual outcome of what happens, it will be a fun and exciting race all the way through September.
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