The Tampa Bay Rays have agreed to trade starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for prospects Andrew Velazquez and Justin Williams
The Diamondbacks tweeted out the official particulars of the trade:
For the Rays, this move is the latest in a string of changes for the franchise this offseason. Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon took their talents elsewhere, so Hellickson is the first player to be moved.
The return for Hellickson is not bad considering what he's turned into since winning that Rookie of the Year award. Velasquez raised his stock in 2014 thanks to an increase in his walk rate and developing defensive skills at shortstop.
According to the MLB.com scouting report, which listed Velasquez as Arizona's No. 12 prospect, his approach at the plate got much better in his second minor league season:
Armed with a better awareness of the strike zone, he has become a more disciplined hitter, though there is still some swing-and-miss in his game. Velazquez generates good bat speed, but his small size limits his power output. His improved on-base skills and his plus speed make him an ideal fit at the top of the order.
Defensively, Velazquez is still learning the infield after playing mostly center field in high school. He has good range and a strong arm, and he could develop into a solid defender in time.
Velasquez did strike out 136 times in 544 at-bats, per MiLB.com, but if he's able to start working counts better and using that speed to steal 25-plus bases every season at the highest level those swings and misses won't mean much.
Williams is a wild card in the deal. He was a second-round pick (52nd overall) in the 2013 draft and boasts some of the best raw power by a teenager in the minors. The 19-year-old did win the Home Run Derby contests before the Perfect Game All-American Classic and Under Armour All-American Game in 2012.
However, there are limitations to Williams' game that hinder his ability to use that power in games. He doesn't have great bat speed and struggles reading pitches, which results in 67 strikeouts in 291 at-bats, via MiLB.com, last season across two levels.
According to Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs, who had Williams ranked ninth overall in Arizona's system, the ability to adjust against off-speed stuff is what holds his value down:
Williams was a 2nd rounder out of high school in 2013 with 60 raw power from the left side as a carrying tool and was among the youngest in his draft class, just recently turning 19. He has an average arm but doesn’t project as more than a fringy defender, so the bat has to carry him. Williams beat expectations in Low-A this year but needs to make adjustments to get to his power in games and scouts are concerned advanced breaking stuff will give him trouble at higher levels.
There's a lot of risk in the deal for Tampa Bay. Neither Velasquez nor Williams have played above A-ball, so the development will take time and results won't be seen for at least two years.
Both players have specific skills that can translate to the MLB level if they develop correctly. Williams has the higher ceiling because he's got the ability to hit 20-25 homers in a season, which is a luxury in this era of pitching and small ball.
Ultimately, the Rays decided to bet on potential and move forward with several other starting options for next season, including Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi. Matt Moore will also be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April.
Hellickson is an interesting gamble for the Diamondbacks. The right-hander was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2011 and had a cumulative ERA of 3.06 through his first three seasons in the league. The question is whether he can rediscover that form after two straight down campaigns.
His ERA is only a shade under 5.00 since the start of the 2013 season. He also dealt with an elbow injury that cost him a sizable portion of last year. When healthy, he posted a 4.52 ERA and career-worst 1.45 WHIP in 13 starts.
The risk doesn't just come from those fading numbers, though. The fact is the peripheral numbers suggest Hellickson was never as good as his initial success indicated. His FIP during the first two complete seasons was 4.44 and 4.60 (via Fangraphs).
Beyond the Box Score provides further context to those numbers:
In an era where the strikeout is king for starting pitchers, Hellickson doesn't punch out nearly enough to offset a marginal walk rate. The advanced stats indicated a drop off was coming after his early success and it has.
The Rays need to get back to building through the farm system, something that has been a problem in recent years. Velasquez and Williams aren't the kind of prospects who will dramatically alter a system, but they do give the team more depth to work with heading into 2015.
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