Anthony Rendon's knee injury isn't serious, they said. He's only being held out of spring training action as a precaution, they said.
Well, now they're singing a different tune. And for a Washington Nationals club that has eyes on being perhaps the elite team in Major League Baseball in 2015, that's a bummer.
Let's go back to Wednesday, March 11. That was the day that Rendon, Washington's 24-year-old star third baseman, was scratched from the day's exhibition with a left knee injury. It was only described as swelling, though, and Nats manager Matt Williams told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that holding Rendon out was "purely precautionary."
Nearly two weeks later, however, Rendon has not only yet to return to Grapefruit League action, but now may be unable to return to before spring training is over.
Though ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reported over the weekend that Rendon had been cleared to resume baseball activities, James Wagner of The Washington Post threw some water on that Monday:
This is quite the turn of events in light of how Rendon's bum knee was only supposed to sideline him for a couple of days. But given that the diagnosis has gone from mere swelling to, according to Stark, a sprained medial collateral ligament, it's not overly surprising, either.
Fortunately, there are two bright sides here.
One is that nobody's suggesting that Rendon's knee injury will knock him out for a prolonged period. The other is that this is happening now rather than later, especially knowing that Washington has an early-season schedule that ESPN.com's Buster Olney thinks is the easiest in the National League.
The not-so-bright side is the possibility that a season-opening stay on the disabled list may not cure Rendon's knee. Williams expressed concern to Stark about Rendon's injury being of the nagging variety, and that it might "stay around awhile."
That makes it worth getting into what Rendon playing on a lingering left knee injury this season could cost the Nationals, which will not be a happy-go-lucky discussion.
Here's the simplest way to put it: If Rendon is compromised, a guy who was easily Washington's best player in 2014 is compromised.
It's not just that Rendon slashed a solid .287/.351/.473 with 21 home runs. He also excelled at two positions on defense, most notably in posting easily above-average metrics (see FanGraphs) at third base. And as his 17 stolen bases reflect, he was an asset on the basepaths as well.
These are the ingredients of Wins Above Replacement we're talking about, and WAR definitely liked Rendon. Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs both pegged him as a 6.5 WAR player, which easily put him ahead of all his Washington comrades.
The question the Nationals are looking at now is how much of that value could be lost to a nagging knee injury. And sadly, the answer could very well be "quite a bit."
At the least, you naturally fear that a bum knee would force Rendon to cut down his aggressiveness on the basepaths. That's a concern not just in light of how it would mean fewer stolen bases, but in light of how FanGraphs pegged him as one of 2014's 10 most valuable baserunners.
As such, a nagging knee injury could render Rendon's most underappreciated skill into just an ordinary skill. The result would be a good chunk of lost value.
From there, let's consider Rendon's defense.
What makes him a quality defensive third baseman is his range. FanGraphs says he saved more runs with his range in 2014 than all but six other third baseman, and that's easy to believe if you take a minute to peruse his defensive highlights.
When it comes to range, first-step quickness is crucial. To this end, a nagging left knee injury could cost Rendon on balls to his right due to a diminished ability to push off with his left leg.
Hypothetically, we're talking fewer plays like this one:
Given that Rendon figures to be playing more balls to his left than to his right, fewer plays like that may not sound like a big deal.
But in this case, context is important. For a third baseman, missed plays to his left means more singles. Missed plays to his right, however, potentially means more doubles and triples. So we're not just talking about him taking a beating in the defensive value department. We're talking about the practical cost of him taking a beating in that department creating more danger situations for the Nationals.
Lastly, there's Rendon's hitting to talk about.
On this front, that Rendon's knee supposedly hurts the most when swinging is obviously disconcerting. What gives yours truly some comfort, however, is the knowledge that Rendon is probably more capable of getting away with a weakened hitting base than most. Look at him swing the bat, and it's his hip rotation and quick wrists that stand out more than how sturdy his lower half is.
But with any kind of knee injury, the one thing you fear the most is a loss of power. And in Rendon's case, even a minor loss of power could be significant.
Though Rendon hit 21 home runs last year, Mike Podhorzer noted at Rotographs that over half of them qualified as "Just Enough" homers in the eyes of ESPN Stats and Information's home run tracker. Dig a little deeper, and you find that Rendon didn't even average 395 feet on his dingers.
So, it's very possible that a nagging knee injury could turn Rendon's home run power into mere doubles power. Given how valuable home runs are, there's another decent-sized chunk of last value.
Mind you, it's hard to say what all this could mean in a bigger-picture sense. But if we were to assume that a lingering knee injury could limit Rendon in three key phases of the game without taking him off the field altogether, it's possible he'll go from being a 6-7 WAR player to being more of a 3-4 WAR player.
That would cost the Nationals a handful of wins in the long run, and you can reach the same conclusion from looking at the situation from a more practical perspective.
Rendon losing something on defense wouldn't be the best thing for Washington's infield, which features a merely adequate shortstop in Ian Desmond and two players getting used to new positions in shortstop-turned-second-baseman Yunel Escobar and third-baseman-turned-first-baseman Ryan Zimmerman.
Further, diminished power and speed would hurt a lineup that figures to already figured to have less of both with speedy leadoff man Denard Span now coming back from core muscle surgery and powerful first baseman Adam LaRoche having bolted for Chicago in free agency.
As far was what this could mean for the Nationals' 2015 season, the good news is that there's a limit to how much one can be concerned.
No matter what, it's hard to imagine the Nats not being a good team. Presently, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have them running away with the National League East with projections of 92 and 94 wins, respectively.
Certainly, you'd expect at least that many wins from a team that has a potentially historic starting rotation and a lineup projected to feature Rendon, Desmond, Span, Zimmermann, Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos. And though the Nationals have more than their fair share of injury concerns these days, Stark correctly noted in his piece that for now they're all short-term concerns.
But that's where Rendon's injury could break from the pack. If his bum knee does indeed linger, it could be an issue for the Nationals all season long. And if it is, the handful of wins that could be lost as a result of his diminished defense, speed and power could make it tough for the Nationals to achieve super-team status and, in turn, run away with the NL East like they're expected to do.
That's another way of saying that while it's unlikely to derail the Nationals, Rendon's knee could at least make things interesting. And while that's not a proclamation of outright doom, it's certainly a scenario the Nationals would rather not have to experience.
So, fingers crossed, guys.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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