Aramis Ramirez has played 150 or more games only once as a Cub. If his shoulder is not 100 percent this season, this statistic will be repeated, and the Cubs offense will struggle.
While that may seem like an all too obvious conclusion, it is the truth. I keep hearing about how "as Soriano goes, so go the Cubs". And while a return to respectability for the Fonz would certainly go a long way to improving the Cubs offense in 2010, I say Rami's contributions will matter even more.
There has been no doubt about what Rami produces while in the lineup, unlike Sori who struggles even when healthy.
Sure, he's not the best defensive third baseman around, with a UZR of -4.0 in 2009. Except for 2007, Rami has always been in the red in UZR.
But the man has offensive value. Bill James projects Rami at 26-76-.292/.364/.514/.878 in 2010.
Of course, he always seems to have some nagging injury. Meanwhile, he has this "clutch" label associated with him. But exactly what does that mean?
Well, in high leverage situations over the past three seasons, Ramirez has had an OBP above .400 and a medium leverage OBP of over .360.
So he is considered a person of interest for the Cubs offense this year.
Meanwhile, don't look for much help from new Cubs owner Tom Ricketts.
"The dollars leaving the door is not the issue," Chairman Tom Ricketts said. "It's the third-highest payroll (in baseball). The issue is getting the right performance for the number of dollars you spend."
So how healthy is Ramirez? Well, he is expected to be ready for spring training, that much we know. We also know that he will be 32 during the summer, so he should be able to contribute at a high level.
Other than that, all we have heard is that the Cubs will be monitoring how his shoulder has healed over the winter.
No matter how much Soriano improves, or whether D-Lee can maintain his improbable improvement from last year, the Cubs offense seems to rest on the repaired shoulder of Ramirez.
And that is a heavy burden to shoulder, come to think of it.
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