Major League Baseball announced the 2014 Comeback Players of the Year in the American and National Leagues on Friday, and they got both of them right.
Seattle Mariners right-hander Chris Young was bestowed with the honor in the AL, after the 35-year-old pitched to a 3.65 ERA over 165 innings and cemented the back end of the team’s starting rotation with 12 wins in 29 starts.
Young spent the 2013 season with the Nationals, but injuries prevented him from reaching the major leagues. He managed to log just 32 innings at Triple-A Syracuse, where he registered an ugly 7.88 ERA and made only seven starts.
A clause in Young’s contract allowed him to opt out of his deal at the end of spring training, and soon thereafter he caught on with the Mariners. The veteran turned out to be a bargain for the M’s, costing them only $1.25 million on the year.
In the NL, the award went to Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee, who batted .287/.355/.357 with 76 RBI in 160 games. McGehee’s season was made all the more impressive by the fact he spent 2013 playing for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. The Marlins signed him last December to a one-year, $1.1 million contract.
But what should we make of McGehee and Young’s newfound success, and, more importantly, what should we expect from them moving forward?
Casey McGehee: Secret to His Success
A year removed from playing overseas, McGehee enjoyed his best season since 2010, batting .287 with a .712 OPS. The 32-year-old's success at the plate was a product of an 18.2 percent line-drive rate, his highest since 2009, per FanGraphs, when he broke through as the Brewers’ everyday third baseman.
McGehee also made contact at a career-high 84.7 percent clip this season and did so 90.4 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone, per FanGraphs. The right-handed hitter’s knack for making consistent contact resulted in the lowest whiffs-per-swing rate of his career, according to BrooksBaseball.net.
Finally, McGehee used the opposite field more often this season, seemingly scrapping the pull-side tendency he showed in previous seasons in favor of a more contact-oriented approach in which he drove the ball from line to line, per BrooksBaseball.net.
Sustainable?
Though he batted .287 and drove in 76 runs in 691 plate appearances, McGehee’s 102 wRC+ (adjusted runs created) was only a tick above league-average. His 2.0 fWAR tells a similar story, and that includes his modest defensive contributions.
In general, the 32-year-old’s overall production was inflated by career-best strikeout (14.8 percent) and walk (9.7 percent) rates, as well as a batting average on balls in play of .335, well above his .297 career average.
And while he put the ball in play often, McGehee’s high contact rate also produced the most double-play ground balls in all of baseball (31), per Baseball-Reference.com.
We shouldn’t discount McGehee’s improvements from this past season, but a healthy chunk of his success was clearly rooted in luck and above his career norms, thus making it difficult to imagine him putting up similar numbers in 2015.
Chris Young: Secret to His Success
First and foremost, Young, an All-Star back in 2007, managed to stay healthy for the entire season, posting his highest innings-pitched total (165) since 2007, when he was still a member of the San Diego Padres.
He told The Washington Post in the spring, via Paul Hagen of MLB.com:
I've battled shoulder stuff, really, for the last five years. And last year, when they finally said this is a nerve issue ... my shoulder feels like it did five, six years ago. I'm really excited about it. I expect it to stay that way. It's the best it's felt in a long time. I want to get back to being the pitcher I can be.
In terms of performance, according BrooksBaseball.net, the 6’10” right-hander thrived at the top of the strike zone this season, likely a result of the deception he created by working from a lower release point. This was especially true against right-handed batters.
Young’s velocity also was up across his entire arsenal this season, per BrooksBaseball.net, as his fastball sat above 86 mph (86.2 mph, to be exact) for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, Young threw both of his breaking balls (curveball and slider) nearly two miles per hour harder this year than he did in 2012, marking the first time in his career he’s posted positive pitch values with both offerings, per FanGraphs.
Sustainable?
Unfortunately, a majority of Young’s statistics from 2014 suggests that he was the beneficiary of luck.
Though he finished the season with an attractive 3.65 ERA, Young’s FIP sat at significantly less attractive 5.02 due to career-worst nine-inning rates in strikeouts (5.89 K/9) and home runs (1.42 HR/9), per FanGraphs, the latter of which coming despite pitching in a pitcher-friendly park.
On top of that, Young stranded baserunners at a 75.1 percent clip this season, well above his career rate of 72.8 percent, and posted the lowest ground-ball rate (22.3 percent) among all qualified starters, according to FanGraphs. Meanwhile, opposing hitters’ .238 batting average on balls in play against Young was the lowest since 2006 (.226), his first year in San Diego.
And then there’s Young’s alarming injury history, which can be found over at Baseball Prospectus, which features two separate shoulder surgeries, four stints on the 60-day disabled list and a host of other arm ailments, highlighting why he’s never logged more than 179.1 innings in a season since breaking into the league back in 2004.
It is worth noting that he struggled down the stretch during the regular season, going 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA over his final five starts, and he even had manager Lloyd McClendon skip one of his turns during that time frame.
Lastly, the 6’10” right-hander’s vertical release point has dropped every season since 2008, according to BrooksBaseball.net, and it’s safe to assume that his litany of injuries has played a role in that trend.
Generally speaking, a perennially lower release point puts extra stress on the shoulder and therefore increases a pitcher’s chances of suffering an arm injury—which might explain Young’s track record of such injuries throughout his career. It certainly raises doubt about his durability moving forward.
Arbitration and Free Agency
McGehee, after a full season back in the major leagues, is eligible for arbitration for a second time and expected to earn $3.5 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Swartz. He’s set to become a free agent after the 2015 season.
Young, on the other hand, is now a free agent after completing his one-year contract with the Mariners. The 35-year-old veteran is sure to catch on with a new team given his success this past season, but it’ll likely be another one- or two-year deal due to his extensive injury history and obvious overachievement.
Following the season, Young expressed a desire to return to the Mariners next season, via Greg Johns of MLB.com:
"I absolutely love it here," Young said. "This has been one of my most favorite baseball experiences. I love the team, love the staff, love the organization, love the city and my favorite Major League ballpark. There's not a negative here. This place is unbelievable."
FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron also sees Young pitching in Seattle next year, predicting that the right-hander could receive a one-year, $6 million contract.
However, there should be other teams willing gamble on Young at that price, especially ones in need of a veteran presence at the back end of the starting rotation.
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