The Chicago Cubs are the best team in baseball.
At roughly the one-quarter mark of the 2016 season, that should be a fairly uncontroversial statement.
You can point to the numbers—specifically the Cubs' 27-9 record and absurd plus-109 run differential, both tops in MLB.
Or you can just watch them play.
These Cubs can hit. They can pitch. They're young, deep and flush with confidence after last season's National League Championship Series appearance and a splashy spate of roster-strengthening winter additions.
Recently, Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight went as far as to wonder if Chicago "can become one of the best teams in baseball history."
Yet, as any long-suffering North Side fan will tell you over a pint and a tear-soaked Chicago dog, being the best team on paper and on the field in May doesn't guarantee anything.
And there are worthy challengers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are playoff-quality teams that will at least keep the Cubs honest in the NL Central. Out west, the big-spending Los Angeles Dodgers and even-year San Francisco Giants lurk.
The wide-open American League is filled with flawed yet dangerous contenders who could provide stiff competition in a theoretical World Series scrum. And of course, injuries and midseason trades will inevitably shift the balance of power everywhere.
However, we're going to focus on two threats to the Cubs' supremacy, both from the NL East: the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals.
At 23-15, the Nats own the second-best record in the NL and lead the division entering play Monday, with the 21-16 Mets nipping at their heels. (Shoutout to the surprising Philadelphia Phillies, who are off to a great start at 22-16 but, as Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer outlined, are unlikely to sustain that pace.)
The East race may well go down to the wire, though both New York and Washington could easily make the playoffs in this two-wild-card era.
With the obligatory caveat that it's early and nothing is assured, which team matches up better with Chicago? More to the point, which one stands a better chance of besting the Cubs in a hypothetical postseason series?
Let's take a look.
Cubs vs. Nationals
The first and most obvious thing to observe about a Cubs-Nationals clash: Look what just happened.
The two teams met for a four-game set at Wrigley Field May 5-8, and the Cubs swept the series. End of story, right?
Well, not really.
None of the Cubs' wins against Washington were blowouts. Their largest margin of victory was three runs, and that was with the Nationals going 9-for-42 with runners in scoring position (RISP) and stranding 37 runners on base for the series (1-for-19, 21 left on base in the 13-inning series finale).
Tip your hat to the Cubs pitchers, but that level of futility is an anomaly. Indeed, the Nationals haven't been nearly that bad in RISP situations on the year.
After the Nats' 8-5 loss May 7, former Cubs manager and current Nats skipper Dusty Baker implied there was an element of bad fortune involved for his side.
"Everything was just out of our reach," Baker said, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. "... Whatever happened, like I said, the ball just wasn't bouncing our way today."
Forget Lady Luck, though, whichever direction she smiles. You can't control that.
The true crux of a Cubs-Nationals tussle is Chicago's patient hitters versus the Nationals' strike-throwing pitchers.
The Cubs rank fourth in the NL in pitches per plate appearance and lead all of baseball in walks. They work counts.
Nationals pitchers, meanwhile, rank near the bottom third in MLB in walks issued and throw the sixth-fewest pitches per plate appearance. Oh, and they lead the game in strikeouts.
That would have been kryptonite against the 2015 Cubs, who whiffed more than any team in the regular season. This year's Cubbies, however, have cut back on the K's. In fact, they rank No. 23 in strikeout percentage.
That neutralizes a potential advantage for Washington, one the Mets exploited in last year's NLCS. And it means the Nats offense will need to pull its weight.
The Cubs employed a drastic strategy against Bryce Harper in their last meeting with Washington, walking the reigning NL MVP 13 times in the series and a record-tying six times in a single game.
Basically, they dared the Nats' others hitters to beat them and won the dare, as we demonstrated with those woeful RISP numbers. That will have to change for the Nationals to stand a chance.
A couple other interesting notes: Nationals hitters have fared well as a group against Cubs ace Jake Arrieta, tagging the NL Cy Young Award winner for a .294 average in 102 collective at-bats, per ESPN.com.
Meanwhile, Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward, one of the team's big offseason additions, has gone 14-for-34 with three doubles and a home run in his career against Nats stud Stephen Strasburg, good for a .412 average and 1.062 OPS.
Cubs vs. Mets
The Cubs and Mets haven't played yet in 2016, but we all remember their last meeting vividly—even though Chicago might prefer to forget.
New York, of course, swept away the Cubbies in the NLCS before losing to the Kansas City Royals in the Fall Classic.
There were multiple catalysts for the Mets, including the historic power binge by second baseman Daniel Murphy (now a member of the Nationals).
The biggest factor, though, was New York's stable of power arms, which overwhelmed the Cubs' bats.
After leading baseball in strikeouts during the regular season, Chicago hitters struck out 37 times in the four games while plating just eight runs.
Then again, as stated, the 2016 Cubs have been far less strikeout-prone as they adopt the approach manager Joe Maddon outlined last May, per Mike Bauman of MLB.com:
If you know you're facing somebody who is really difficult, why do you want to go up there and just go all out early in the count when you don't have much of a chance? You're not seeing the ball well, the guy's really good, he doesn't match up well for you, so why wouldn't you not make an adaptation from pitch one, even before two strikes?
The Cubs lineup, augmented by veteran additions such as Heyward and Ben Zobrist, appears to be taking that to heart.
It ought to serve Chicago well against the Mets rotation, fronted by bolt-hurling Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and lefty Steven Matz.
Matt Harvey has struggled through an up-and-down campaign. But with Zack Wheeler due back from Tommy John surgery, there's talent aplenty.
In fact, harkening back to the dichotomy we highlighted earlier, Mets starters have issued the fewest walks in baseball. A rematch with Chicago's disciplined hitters could be the ultimate unstoppable force/immovable object struggle.
Offensively, the Mets have hit the second-most home runs in the National League after the Cardinals thanks to early power barrages from outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and second baseman Neil Walker, who New York signed as a fallback after missing on Zobrist.
Overall, however, New York ranks 20th in runs scored.
The two teams will meet for the first time since the NLCS on June 30, when they open a four-game set in Queens. That won't decide anything, but like the recent Nats-Cubs series, it'll provide an instructive bellwether.
The Verdict
Again, the Cubs are the best team in baseball, so they'd be favored against either the Mets or the Nationals.
Chicago's pitching can stand toe-to-toe with both clubs', and its lineup is head and shoulders above, just as potent as last year's edition but with the strikeout Achilles' heel seemingly shored up.
The Nationals have Harper, and if the Cubs keep walking him every time he steps into the box, eventually Washington will drive him in. That RISP futility won't last forever.
If we're picking a team to take on the Cubs in a playoff series, though, we'll go with the Mets for their strength of arms.
No, they won't be able to exploit Cubs hitters like they did last November. But with their MLB-low walk total, they've got the best chance of neutralizing Chicago's balanced attack.
And don't underestimate the intimidation factor. These Cubbies are high on swagger, but the Mets hold the humbling high ground until further notice. A playoff sweep is a playoff sweep.
That's what makes the late June series so important. If Chicago rolls into Citi Field and has its way, whatever air of invincibility the Mets built in the NLCS will evaporate.
If, on the other hand, New York tames the Cubs yet again, suddenly the doubts will grow. Not to get too deep into dime-store psychoanalysis, but a 107-year championship drought can do funny things to your head.
No matter who they face, the Cubs will be battling history assuming they make it to October. And if they end up facing either the Mets or the Nats, they'll be battling a worthy opponent as well.
At the risk of unfairly favoring the rematch, the Mets might be slightly more worthy.
All statistics current as of May 15 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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