Sure, the Minnesota Twins confounded the baseball pundits by nearly capturing the American League Central Division crown in 2008. Off the strength of that performance, which surprised the hardiest of Twins' fans, even Vegas is hopping on Minnesota's bandwagon in 2009.
Is this optimism justified?
There are several troubling signs that 2009 could be a very bumpy ride.
Joe Mauer's health.
In 2008, Mauer became only the ninth Major League ballplayer to win a second batting title by the age of 24. He'll never be a contender for the Triple Crown, but his ability to get on base and deliver clutch hits is a linchpin in the Twins' offense.
Acknowledged as one of the best relievers in the game, Mauer hasn't received enough credit for helping a young pitching staff develop into potentially one of the most dynamic rotations in the American League.
The Twins can survive a few games with Mauer on the shelf, but an extended absence would certainly dim their hopes of matching last season's success.
The bullpen is no place for old men.
Joe Nathan has arguably been the best reliever in the Major Leagues for some time. Over the past five years, he has saved no fewer than 36 games in a season. This is a record that only one (Trevor Hoffman) of the top 10 career saves' leaders can match.
And Nathan is 34—the age at which most relievers begin to flat-line. This at least gives one pause to reflect whether he has reached the end of the road.
No relief in sight.
Matt Guerrier (6-9, 5.19), Luis Ayala (2-10, 5.71), and the untested Jose Mijares.
Are you quaking in your shoes yet?
They are waiting in the wings if Jesse Crain (5-4, 3.59) or Craig Breslow (0-2, 1.91), aren't able to duplicate their mound performances of a year ago.
It's hard to rationalize the free agent signing of a fragile Joe Crede, as Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris combined for 96 runs batted in last year at third base, when there is such a dearth of talent in the Twins' middle relief corps.
Will the real Nick Punto stand up?
Punto revived his career with a fine offensive showing in 2008—batting .284. The year before, Punto batted a miserable .210. In 2006, he had a career year at .290 and 45 runs batted in. In 2005, Punto suffered through another sub-par year at the plate, rocking the cowhide at a .239 clip.
Punto is the glue that holds the Twins' defense together, but wouldn't it be nice if he could be more consistent at the plate?
If his past history is any indication, Punto will be swatting a lot of thin air in 2009, creating another offensive liability that the Twins can ill-afford.
The curious case of Delmon Young.
With a surfeit of outfielders, Manager Ron Gardenhire is having trouble making up his mind which players will gain the starting nod.
Young should be a no-brainer for a front-line berth.
He's put together two solid offensive seasons, although they've fallen short of the enormous expectations that baseball insiders have for him. But to use Young as a backup, or even worse, employ him as a designated hitter, is marginalizing a budding talent.
Will youth be served?
Scott Baker is the winningest pitcher on a young staff with 28 victories. He, along with Kevin Slowey, Ron Blackburn, and Glen Perkins received their first extended Major League exposure in 2008. Nobody really knows how good they are.
Can Twins' fans expect that they will continue to grow and mature or will they endure some growing pains in 2009?
The same question revolves around outfielders Carlos Gomez and Denard Span, and second baseman Alexi Casilla. They have all flashed potential, but only Span can lay claim to a modicum of consistency.
If you're looking for a surprise team in the American League Central Division, the Minnesota Twins could be it—and not in a good way.
- Login to post comments