Tampa Bay finished 13th in the majors in runs scored with 774 last year. They are looking to improve on those numbers with the additions of some hitters (Burrell and Joyce), the healing of some stars (Upton and Crawford), and the maturation of a stud (Longoria).
I’m going to take a look at the Rays lineup to see what each player is looking to contribute to this year’s offense.
Shortstop Jason Bartlett was rushed through the minors because he was a .300 hitter from day one. Last year, his batting average jumped to .286, up 21 points from his 2007 average. His spring training batting average of .357 suggests that this is the year that he hits .300 in the majors and steals the lead-off spot from Iwamura.
Tampa Bay’s left fielder, Carl Crawford, is looking to bounce back in 2009. His numbers were consistently amazing until he ran into hamstring issues last year.
’05: 101 R, 15 HR, .301 BA, .800 OPS, 46 SB
’06: 89 R, 16 HR, .305 BA, .830 OPS, 58 SB
’07: 93 R, 9 HR, .315 BA, .821 OPS, 50 SB
It makes sense that Crawford hits from the two-spot because he has decent power and he causes havoc on the base paths.
Third Baseman Evan Longoria was amazing in his rookie season and his baseball mashing will improve in 2009.
Minor league career (787 at-bats): .304 BA, .929 OPS
Major league career (448 at-bats): 67 R, .272 BA, 27 HR, 85 RBI
First Baseman Carlos Pena is looking to bounce back from hitting .247 in ’08 to something more like his ’07 average of .282. Granted ‘07 was a career year for Pena but he also had a healthy Crawford in the lineup.
07’: 99 R, 46 HR, 121 RBI, .282 BA, 1.038 OPS
08’: 76 R, 31 HR, 96 RBI, .247 BA, .871 OPS
Pena’s on-base-percentage has been trending upwards, which means that he is improving his pitch recognition.
Last four year’s on-base-percentage: .325, .351, .411, .377
Tampa Bay added another piece of puzzle with their smart acquisition of Pat Burrell this off-season. We’ll probably see more of the same this year from Pat the Bat, a sour average with some sweet power. You can probably expect about a .260 average and 30 bombs from the Rays DH.
The Rays must have been content with their pitching because they traded Edwin Jackson to Detroit for a young outfielder, Matt Joyce. I expect his batting average to rise from .252 last year to about .265 this year. He hit 12 homers in 242 at bats with Detroit but his minor league stats suggest that we won’t see a major improvement in his power.
The Rays catcher, Dioner Navarro, hit .300 against right-handed pitchers last year and is still only 25 years old. Navarro is hitting .321 this spring and the term underrated comes to mind when considering this solid contributor.
The Rays second baseman, Akinori Iwamura, doesn’t hit for much power but he can hit for average and get on base. His career .353 on-base-percentage and lack of power makes him ideal to bat ninth in a pseudo- lead-off role.
The biggest wild card on this team is center fielder B. J. Upton. He has tremendous speed (44 SB last year) and his power was hampered due to a shoulder injury last season.
Here’s what Rob Neyer has to say about Upton:
One thing I couldn't figure out: If Upton's shoulder killed his power during the season, why didn't it kill his power during the postseason? And if his shoulder was better during the postseason, why did he need offseason shoulder surgery?
Anyway, considering that Upton is still only 24, it seems unlikely that we've seen his best. And if his best season (yet) comes in 2009, you can probably tack another couple of wins atop the Rays' computer projections.
Stephania Bell compares this injury to what Hanley Ramirez went through before last season and expects Upton to recover.
I like Upton’s power to bounce back to around 20 home runs (he had 24 in ’07) to go along with all of his other incredible numbers.
Even utility player, Ben Zobrist, will contribute. He showed some pop with 12 HR in 198 at-bats last year.
So, here is my projected Rays lineup and projected stats:
1) Bartlett, SS: 95 R, 5 HR, 45 RBI, .300 BA, 25 SB
2) Crawford, LF: 110 R, 12 HR, 80 RBI, .305 BA, 50 SB
3) Upton, CF: 90 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, .290 BA, 40 SB
4) Longoria, 3B: 85 R, 35 HR, 115 RBI, .285 BA, 10 SB
5) Pena, 1B: 90 R, 35 HR, 125 RBI, .265 BA
6) Burrell, DH: 75 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, .255 BA
7) Navarro, C: 45 R, 10 HR, 60 RBI, .290 BA
8) Joyce, RF: 50 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, .265 BA
9) Iwamura, 2B: 70 R, 7 HR, 55 RBI, .280 BA, 7 SB
This lineup has everything you could ask for out of a young ball club: Speed and average near the top, power in the middle, and solid role players at the bottom.
If the Rays can stay healthy, 2009 will be another special season in Tampa.
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