Aroldis Chapman has created quite the market for himself.
Triple-digit fastballs on the regular, an ERA and FIP living below 2.00, nearly 16 strikeouts per nine innings and four consecutive All-Star appearances in four utterly dominant seasons have made the Cincinnati Reds lefty closer one of the best at his position in his era. And now he carries that title while the Reds embark on a rebuild that could bury them in the National League Central for the next few seasons, at least.
So, unsurprisingly, the team has put Chapman, their onetime Cuban prize, on the trade block for all to see, explore and bid upon. The asking price is high, even with other coveted back-end relievers floating around the free-agent and trade pools.
That pool previously included Craig Kimbrel, one of the sport’s most dominant closers. Chapman and Kimbrel were seen as the two biggest fish, but the Boston Red Sox angled Kimbrel two weeks ago for a haul of prospects in a deal that had mixed reviews for the Sox.
That deal slightly altered the market for Chapman in that the Red Sox are no longer players in the bidding, but in no way has it changed the way the Reds value their closer’s market value. They will still demand top-end talent in return, as they should.
"Kimbrel was a bit of a different animal than Chapman, in terms of club control," Reds general manager Dick Williams told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. "We didn't feel like we missed out on a deal with them. There will be other teams that are interested in Chapman.”
Several teams have interest in Chapman, but the asking price hurriedly puts an end to some of that. The Reds dangled him before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, though nothing came of it because teams like the Houston Astros, New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks felt the cost was too rich.
The potential suitors are deeper in the offseason—those three clubs and at least the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals can be added to the list—but the Reds are still asking a ton in return for a closer with a salary in the $13 million range for next season before he can become a free agent. For comparison, Kimbrel is owed $25 million through 2017 with a $13 million club option. He is not just a one-year rental like Chapman.
Despite the lack of club control with Chapman, he will still draw a significant return because he is the kind of arm that can change a team’s postseason outlook. He can turn a hopeful team into a contender and a good team into a legitimate World Series threat simply by locking down the eighth or ninth inning.
And he might do that as soon as a week from now, as the Cincinnati Enquirer's C. Trent Rosecrans noted:
#Reds Walt Jocketty said there's 'nothing close' with Aroldis Chapman. Hopes to get something done by the Winter Meetings
— C. Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent) November 19, 2015
Even teams with established closers, like the Dodgers and Nationals, are exploring Chapman’s market. The reason is the entire market is looked at differently now than it ever was in the past.
While it was universally accepted—and surely still is, but with this new twist—that bullpens can be remade and revamped at minimal cost, the elite, premium arms are being coveted more than ever because of what dominant bullpens have recently meant to teams like the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals. Those teams have won the last two World Series with massive contributions from their bullpens and in spite of just so-so starting pitching—Madison Bumgarner aside, of course.
That has put a new premium on top-flight relievers, even with high price tags. That is why the Reds will not, and should not, budge on their asking price. Not before the winter meetings, at least.
"I don't control who is out there or who will be interested,” Williams told Sheldon. “We feel that there are other offers. We feel that he's the best closer out there, so [we] hope good stuff can happen."
@jaysonst Other teams say Reds are targeting big-league ready young players in any package they get back for Frazier or Aroldis Chapman
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) November 16, 2015
The Red Sox are obviously out of the Chapman picture after acquiring Kimbrel, and so are the Detroit Tigers, most likely, after trading for Francisco Rodriguez. With those arms off the board, along with Joaquin Benoit after he was traded to the Seattle Mariners, the interest in Chapman could pick up in the next week or so.
Looking forward, if Chapman remains on the trading block beyond December, his price could drop. The Reds cannot afford to keep him through next season and gain nothing more than draft-pick compensation when he walks into free agency. He is too valuable an asset to get just one player in return.
The problem for the Reds is other teams also know this, and they could wait out the reliever market until names like Darren O’Day and potentially Andrew Miller are signed or traded. That would lower the number of teams with a desire for Chapman, and could cause the Reds to pull the trigger on a lesser deal than what they currently envision.
What is clear is that, as of now, the Kimbrel trade has not shifted the Reds’ belief that they should get a premium player package for Chapman this offseason. However, the sooner they can strike a deal and before the reliever market changes much more, the more likely they are to get something close to what they want. Chapman’s market has not played out much to this point, but that could change dramatically in the next week or two.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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