Home runs are supposed to be left in September. Those things are not supposed to transition into the fall, when the weather gets crisp, the leaves get brown and the pitching depth gets dense.
Pitching and small ball win in the Major League Baseball playoffs, or so the saying goes. If you are a team reliant on home runs, that reliance will be the death of you. That is what the myth tells us.
That is not entirely true, though. While pitching wins no matter what month of the year the game is played in, teams that rely on home runs are actually less susceptible to their offense suffering than clubs that don't rely on the long ball.
The Houston Astros rely on the home run. They finished second in the majors with 230 during the regular season, and through their first two postseason games this year, the franchise's first since 2005 when it reached the World Series, they have used good pitching and multiple home runs to win.
The Kansas City Royals got Houston's latest dose in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Thursday, a 5-2 Astros win at Kauffman Stadium to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-five series. George Springer and Colby Rasmus both homered.
Underrated playoff tradition: Announcers saying "it's bad to be too reliant on homers" as game after game after game is decided by homers.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) October 9, 2015
The Astros were the second-most home run-reliant team in the majors during the regular season, using that weapon to score 47.6 percent of their 729 runs, according to Baseball Prospectus' Guillen Number, a stat that tracks the percentage of runs teams score via home runs.
In games when the Astros hit more than one home run, they were a major league-best 57-11. The usual narrative says that trend won't continue in the postseason, and while that is sometimes true, it is no more so than for teams that rely on other ways of scoring.
Grantland's Ben Lindbergh looked into those trends last year and found that between 1995 and 2013, teams that relied on the homer—ones that scored around 40 percent of their runs that way—saw their offensive production drop in the playoffs by 22.4 percent. Teams that did not rely on home runs—ones that scored around 33 percent of their runs through home runs—saw their offensive production drop by 26.5 percent.
Myth busted. The Astros, a team that wins with pitching, home runs and defense, might not see their offense suffer in October as much as people like to think.
While pitching should be credited first and foremost for Houston's wild-card and ALDS wins—Dallas Keuchel threw six shutout innings in the Wild Card Game, and Collin McHugh allowed two runs in six innings Thursday—the Astros have continued to hit for power. The team hit two home runs against the New York Yankees to help in that 3-0 victory, and it used two more against the Royals to keep its trends alive.
"They're having fun," Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters before Game 1. When you're having fun, even on this big stage, you're able to perform the way you do all summer. That's what they did in New York, and hopefully that's what they're going to keep doing."
There is another trend that has become part of the Astros' identity: This team strikes out with the best of them. Their 1,392 strikeouts were the second most in the majors and the most in the AL, and that total is also good for ninth highest in the game's history.
However, this is how the Astros have won all season. So too the Chicago Cubs. So too the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those teams finished in the top seven in the majors in total strikeouts, and they also made the playoffs.
For the Astros, on Thursday they became the sixth team in postseason history to win a nine-inning game despite striking out at least 14 times.
Astros strike out 14 times, win Game 1. Sounds about right.
— Jane Lee (@JaneMLB) October 9, 2015
Houston's first home run against the Royals came in the fifth inning, moments after Jose Altuve was thrown out trying to steal. George Springer, who had 16 regular-season homers despite missing about nine weeks with an injury, followed that downer by unloading on a mistake fastball from Chris Young, putting it over the wall in left-center field for a 4-2 lead.
"When he's healthy and he's right, he can be one of the best players in the game," former major leaguer Eric Byrnes said on MLB Network after the game. "Yeah, one of the best."
This postseason could be his coming-out party.
"He's obviously announcing his presence," Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters in his postgame press conference.
George Springer's HR projected to land 422 feet away and leave the bat at 109 mph, according to #Statcast. pic.twitter.com/1PELPEgv7y
— MLB (@MLB) October 9, 2015
Colby Rasmus provided more insurance in the eighth inning when he smoked his second postseason home run of the week. That shot made him the fifth player in major league history to have at least one extra-base hit in each of his first five postseason games.
"This is a [bleeping] blast, man," Rasmus told reporters after the game.
Colby Rasmus' 8th-inning HR was calculated at 439 feet (longest of 2015 postseason). pic.twitter.com/340TpnFTiw
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 9, 2015
Baseball is full of myths—things we believe to be true. But because of piles upon piles of data now available, they have proved to be false or at least not as true as we once thought. That home runs completely disappear in October is one of those.
The Astros, a team that swings for the fences and does not apologize when it misses, are already doing their best to discredit that belief. And they are certainly talented enough to keep that trend going.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter, @awitrado, and talk baseball here.
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