For a few minutes, it looked like the Houston Astros were going to win Game 4 of the American League Division Series in a romp, which would've pushed them one step closer to the World Series.
But it really was only for a few minutes. The situation took a hard left turn, and now the Astros find themselves in the same place they were a week ago: Reeling from a missed opportunity and needing to win a do-or-die game to extend their season.
The Astros entered the eighth inning Monday with a 6-2 lead over the Kansas City Royals. They had scored three runs in the bottom of the seventh on a two-run homer by rookie sensation Carlos Correa, his second long ball of the day, and a solo shot by red-hot left fielder Colby Rasmus.
With the Astros holding a 2-1 series lead, it looked like it was going to be curtains for the Royals, much to the delight of the 40,000 fans packed into Minute Maid Park. When the top of the eighth inning ended, however, the Astros were down 7-6. A short while later, they had lost 9-6.
And, just like that, a Game 5 back at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday went from unnecessary to very necessary.
What happened, exactly? As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports recounted, the top of the seventh was basically a dream for the visitors and a nightmare for the home team:
Of the events listed above, the most damaging was the E-6.
That happened on a funky ground ball that deflected off Tony Sipp's glove and the mound before clanking off Correa's glove and into center field. What might have been a crucial double play instead tied the game, punched the crowd in the gut and seemed to take the wind out of the Astros' sails. And when Eric Hosmer scored the go-ahead run on a fielder's choice, the game was all but over. That was doubly true when Hosmer padded Kansas City's lead with a two-run homer in the top of the ninth.
So, the Astros' four-run lead in Game 4 went the way of their two-run lead in Game 2. Cue Houston manager A.J. Hinch, who summed things up after the game, via Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle:
To be sure, the reality that a tough loss for Houston was also a brilliant win for Kansas City should not be lost on anyone.
The Royals may have put themselves in a 6-2 hole, but they deserved to climb out of it. Correa's error helped, but Kansas City kept the line moving by putting together beautiful at-bats. The inning showed off the team's gritty, contact-happy offense.
So, never mind either/or. Game 4 of the ALDS was both a choke job on the part of the Astros and a well-won comeback on the part of the Royals. In time, maybe we'll look back and view it as a classic.
For now, though, what matters is that the events of Game 4 set up a question that only one team can answer in the affirmative: Who gets the last laugh?
If the Astros want to take heart in something, they can remember this is a road they've been down before.
They went from leading the AL West to barely making the playoffs in a matter of weeks and didn't even get to host the Wild Card Game. Rather than a team that deserved to be there, you could mosey out into the Twittersphere and get a sense that the Astros were lucky to be there.
But things ended up working out. Behind an excellent performance on short rest by Dallas Keuchel and a couple pinches of their offense's special ingredient—dingers, of course—the Astros blanked the New York Yankees in the one-gamer. They didn't even look like they were facing elimination.
Pulling that off again, however, won't be so easy.
In Game 5, the Astros won't be taking on an older team with a broken offense at a bandbox venue like they did in the Wild Card Game. They'll be taking on a 95-win team at a venue that, per ESPN.com, suppresses power like few others. Make no mistake: This could be when the Astros' habit of making things interesting finally does them in.
Where the Royals are concerned, finishing this series could be as simple as using their home-field advantage against the Astros and continuing to grind out at-bats and punish mistakes like they did in the later innings of Game 4. The series may be tied, but they have the Astros right where they want them.
There is one potential roadblock for the Royals, though. As much as it seems like they have all the momentum, it's true what they say about momentum only being as good as the next day's starting pitcher. And these days, the goodness of Kansas City's Game 5 starter is very much in question.
It's hard to believe we can say as much about Johnny Cueto, given that his ERA was only 2.62 at the time the Royals acquired him from the Cincinnati Reds in late July. But he proceeded to post a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts down the stretch for Kansas City, and he wasn't very good in allowing four runs in six innings in Game 2 of this series.
What's wrong with Cueto is as good a question as any. It's possible to blame bad luck for his struggles, as his opponents' BABIP was .234 in Cincinnati but .343 in Kansas City. But he's also been striking out two fewer batters per nine innings, even though his velocity has barely changed. Heck, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs even looked into Cueto's critiques of Salvador Perez's target-setting and didn't find much to speak of.
Which is to say: Who really knows what the Royals are going to get out of Cueto in Game 5? His recent struggles say it could be another poor performance. His talent says it might actually be a good performance.
If the bad Cueto shows up, it will be Kansas City's turn to have the wind taken out of its sails, and the Astros could yet again emerge victorious after missing a major opportunity.
If the good Cueto shows up, the Astros will have to take care of business the hard way. They'll need a clutch performance from the underrated Collin McHugh and will have to hope their bats have enough thunder in them to overcome Kauffman Stadium's daunting dimensions.
This series is going to end one of two ways. Either the Royals will retain their status as the alpha dogs of the American League by putting the Astros out of their misery following their Game 4 collapse, or the Astros are going to show once again they're not the same team that lost 100-plus games in three straight seasons from 2011 to 2013.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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