The Houston Astros continued to prove they belong in October by taking Game 1 of the American League Division Series from the defending AL champion Kansas City Royals 5-2 on Thursday night. The Astros hit two homers in the victory, while Collin McHugh allowed just two earned runs in six innings of work.
After finishing up Game 1 late, both teams will have a quick turnaround for Game 2 on Friday afternoon. With Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir set to take the mound, let's look at a few keys that could decide the outcome.
Patience Against Kazmir
With the crafty Kazmir on the mound, K.C. must stay patient in order to have success.
Kansas City hitters ranked sixth in MLB with a 33.3 percent chase rate in 2015. Salvador Perez (43.3 percent), Alcides Escobar (36.2 percent), Lorenzo Cain (36.1 percent), Mike Moustakas (34 percent), Kendrys Morales (32.7 percent) and Eric Hosmer (32.7 percent) all finished in the top 70 in baseball in that category.
If a starter attacks the Royals with a focused approach, Kansas City hitters can beat themselves. Lee Judge of the Kansas City Star touched on this weakness in a recent article:
Royals hitters are not patient. If a pitcher gets strike one on a KC hitter, that hitter isn’t likely to take a called strike two. So if an Astros pitcher can locate a first-pitch borderline fastball or throw a get me-over-curve for a strike, after that Royals hitters will go into swing mode. Once the hitters are in swing mode, throw pitches just off the plate and Royals hitters will tend to chase those pitches.
Kazmir is the type of pitcher who can frustrate the aggressive Kansas City lineup. The southpaw teases hitters with an assortment of offerings, throwing pitches that look like strikes but wind up being balls. Kazmir has caused hitters to chase outside the zone 30 percent of the time in three straight seasons.
The Royals are aggressive in nature, and that style of play has yielded success over the last two seasons. But if Kazmir can get ahead with his fastball, he can take advantage of Kansas City's desire to come up with that big hit.
Keeping the Astros in the Yard
So far in these playoffs, Houston has done what it does best: hit the long ball.
Over the course of the season, Astros hitters ranked second in homers with 230. A whopping 11 players reached double figures, including Evan Gattis (27), Colby Rasmus (25), Luis Valbuena (25), Chris Carter (24) and Carlos Correa (22).
With Cueto on the mound, Houston will have opportunities to drive the baseball. After posting a 2.62 ERA with the Cincinnati Reds, the right-hander's ERA has ballooned to a 4.76 mark. Cueto allowed 10 homers in just 81.1 innings for the Royals.
Houston is capable of going deep at any spot in the lineup, but home runs seem to mean more to the young roster. For momentum's sake, Cueto must make the strikeout-prone Astros play station-to-station baseball in order to score runs.
If he can keep Houston in the ballpark, there are strikeouts to be had throughout the lineup that can stifle potential rallies.
Stay out of the Kansas City Bullpen
The Royals have one of the deepest rosters in MLB, but their bullpen is undoubtedly their biggest weapon.
Last October, K.C. stormed to the postseason in large part because nobody could hit its late-inning options. That bullpen excelled again during the regular season, as Kansas City ranked second in MLB with a 2.72 ERA.
Even without closer Greg Holland, Houston doesn't want to have to come back against Kansas City's bullpen. Wade Davis (0.94 ERA, 10.43 K/9) and Kelvin Herrera (2.71 ERA) are just as nasty as they were a season ago, while Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA) has finally returned to his previous best after multiple injuries.
Kansas City's one glaring weakness is its starting pitching. Royals starters posted a 4.34 ERA in 2015, which was the worst total among playoff teams. If Houston can get on the board early once again in Game 2, it'll go a long way toward cementing a 2-0 lead.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 9.
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