Thankfully, for the Braves, the first half is over. Well technically, the first 54 percent of the season is over, but I digress.
Due to the up-and-down nature of Braves baseball in '09, I have decided to split this article up. The past will refer to the time period between April to late June. The present will cover late June to now. And, as day follows the night, the future will refer to the second half of the season.
Now that I've dedicated an entire paragraph to setting the article up, it's time to get to it!
The Past
What started with an up-and-down off-season quickly translated on the field of play for Atlanta. There was the PR hit of John Smoltz's unceremonious exit, A.J. Burnett's "show me the money" negotiations, the Furcal debacle and the almost completed trade for Jake Peavy. These non-moves seemingly sunk the Braves in December.
But in between all of that the Braves traded for Javier Vazquez, and signed Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe. It was those moves that have kept the Braves afloat this season.
Considering all of that, is there any reason to be baffled at the inconsistency that carried over into the season? In my mind, no.
What started as a promising season quickly became a struggle to get to and stay at the .500 mark. You can blame it on a number of things.
From Jeff Francoeur's continued struggles to the lack of a bona fide run producer to protect Chipper and McCann to the seventh-, eighth-, and ninth-inning pitchers all coming off season-ending surgery...the blame is easily spread around.
Sure there were some exciting moments and even some glimpses of what this team could become. There was the 5-1 start to the season, followed by a five-game losing streak.
Then came the road trip that took Atlanta to division rivals Philly, Florida, and New York when the Braves went 6-2. Immediately after that rough stretch, Atlanta went 8-8 to end the month of May.
In early June, Frank Wren pulled off the deal that brought Nate McLouth to Atlanta, and the Braves seemed well on their way to putting together a nice run. But after winning three games in a row over the Brewers and Pirates, they dropped 12 of 17.
Which brings me to the present...
<!-- my page break -->
The Present
Following the win over the Red Sox in Atlanta on June 28, I wrote that the Braves need to win nine of their final 13 games and get to 44-44 at the break.
Someone important must have read that, or maybe it was just that obvious because the Braves came very close to doing just that.
Atlanta finally started putting some good games together. The Braves swept the struggling Phillies in Atlanta and took the first game of the Washington series to complete their season high five-game winning streak.
It seemed the inconsistency had returned with two straight losses to perhaps the worst team in history of MLB. The Nationals had only won 22 games all season when they took two of three from Atlanta.
That proved to be untrue, however, when the Braves went to Wrigley and took two of three from the hot Cubs. Now, after splitting four with the Rockies, who were 27-5 since June 4th, this team could very well be on the verge of a spectacular second half.
So, what has happened recently to make this stretch possible? First of all, the Braves finally started hitting.
Bobby Cox finally heard me and a few thousand other fans yell, "Bench Kelly, start Prado!"
All Martin Prado has done in his 56 AB's since June 30 is hit .464 with eight doubles, one HR, and nine RBI's while striking out only five times!
Atlanta also welcomed an unknown career minor leaguer, Brooks Conrad, to replace the injured Kelly Johnson. Conrad has played in 10 games. In his 29 ABs, he has hit .379 with two HR's, eight RBI's, two triples, and two doubles. By the way, he was a double shy of the cycle on Sunday.
Three days after my article calling for the Braves to rid themselves of Jeff Francoeur, he was traded to the Mets for the solid Ryan Church. I guess I have a penchant for stating the obvious.
During this time, Rafael Soriano also solidified his spot as this team's full-time closer. Javier Vazquez made himself virtually untradable. Jair Jurrjens became the de facto ace of the staff. And Derek Lowe bolted out of his mini-slump.
Now onto the future...
The Future
Despite the utterly disappointing final game of the first half, this Braves team is actually in a good spot. Sure, I'd rather see the Braves at .500 and five games back of the Phillies, but two under and six back is not that big a deal when compared to what it could have been.
This Braves lineup is capable of putting out decent offense, but the Braves are still one bona fide bat short of becoming a force in the NL East.
Still, even as currently constructed this team could give the Phillies all they've got in the second half. The Phillies are clearly sub-par when it comes to pitching.
Team ace Cole Hamels has struggled mightily this season, and J.A. Happ has been their most consistent starter by far. Pedro Martinez will not be the difference maker in that rotation.
Roy Halladay would be, but late indications are that Halladay will not be moved. So as long as that Phillies staff is as shaky as it is the Braves have a chance.
The Marlins are another team to watch out for, but they are just as inconsistent as Atlanta. Florida does not have the staff that Atlanta has either. Their young core is talented, but no where near as solid one through five as Atlanta.
The Mets are finished. The Braves will most likely nail their coffin shut during the first series after the All-Star break.
So these '09 Braves, for all their problems, frustrations, and inconsistency, still have a chance to make some noise and possibly win this division.
Especially if they pick up a power bat, and a decent bullpen arm before the trade deadline.
<!-- my page break -->
10 Second-Half Projections
- The Braves finally get over .500 after sweeping the Mets in the first series of the second half.
- The Braves deal for either a power-hitting first baseman or outfielder before the July 31 trade deadline.
- Atlanta gets to first place in the NL East by Sept. 10.
- Javier Vazquez ends up with 15 wins.
- Jair Jurrjens finishes with 16 wins.
- Tommy Hanson wins the Rookie of the Year (Went out on a limb there).
- Chipper Jones hits 15 second-half HR's.
- Mike Gonzalez gets traded, possibly in the deal for a hitter.
- Tim Hudson pitches wonderfully out of the bullpen down the stretch and is signed to a new deal after the season.
- The Braves win the NL East for the first time since 2005.
Final NL East Standings
- Braves: 88-74
- Phillies: 86-76
- Marlins: 82-80
- Mets: 78-84
- Nats: 51-111
Braves Mid-Season Awards
Chipper Jones Award (Team MVP): Martin Prado - The Braves would not have went on this recent tear without him.
Jeff Blauser Award (Biggest Surprise): Brooks Conrad - He's earned a spot on this roster with his recent play.
Greg Maddux Award (Best Pitcher): Jair Jurrjens - As awesome as Javy Vazquez has been, Jurrjens is flat unhittable at times. Hopefully the won/loss record will portray that better in the second half.
Tommy Hanson Award (Best Rookie): Tommy Hanson - Duh!
How in the World is this Guy Still a Major Leaguer Award: Kelly Johnson - He may not be one for much longer.
Please Calm Down So You Can Realize your Enormous Potential Award: Yunel Escobar - It's time to put the big-boy pants on and realize you are in the Major Leagues, not the Cuban national team.
Fred McGriff Award (Biggest mid-season addition): Nate McLouth - The Braves stole this guy from the Pirates. He's increased his average nearly 20 percentage points since joining the team in late-May.
Hopefully you have enjoyed my novellette/review/preview of the Atlanta Braves first and second halves. Enjoy the break, and get ready for a great second half, Braves fans!
- Login to post comments