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A fearless forecast? There’s no such thing; everyone fears injuries.
This forecast is based on teams' abilities to play old school baseball, which should be new school baseball in these post-steroid days.
AL EAST
First, Tampa Bay and Boston are neck and neck. You could give it to the Sawx on the basis of their bullpen or you can give it to the Rays on the basis or their speed and depth.
I give a razor’s edge to the Rays.
Most important players in that decision: Catcher Dioner Navarro and Utility Man Ben Zobrist.
Key Players: Zobrist, Upton, the Bullpen, all these guys could scrap the season in Tampa.
Second Place – Boston
Solid all around but the Sox need to stay healthy and get a solid year from Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek and whoever ends up at SS.
Key Players: Lowell. He goes down with Lugo, and the left side is shot.
Third Place – New York Yankees
You could argue the Yankees are the last team to get back to basics. Because they can spend for every bopper they want. Even they have started a transition with Gardner in CF and Angel Berroa as a utility player. Expect the Cabrera and Cano trades soon.
The Yanks are so close to the top two that an injury here or there for either puts them in the playoffs. An injury or two to both puts them in champs seat.
Key Players – Brett Gardner and Jorge Posada – the up the middle defense could be very solid with Berroa pushing Cano, Jeter and these two playing well.
Fourth Place – Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are pretty solid throughout. That should be enough to hold off the Orioles.
Key Players – David Purcey and Rickey Romero. These young lefties decide if the Jays avoid the cellar.
Fifth Place – Baltimore Orioles
The O’s are building the right way. Jones in CF, Roberts at 2B, Markakis in RF, Izturis at SS, Weiters at C. They could be good soon. They just don’t have the starting pitching to break out of the cellar yet.
Key Players- The starting rotation – the defense, the bullpen and the bats are all good enough. The rotation is a question mark for two more years. That’s when Tillman and Matusz could arrive.
AL CENTRAL
First – Minnesota
The Twins have too much starting pitching for the division to handle. Punto and Casilla are solid in the middle.
Key Players – Denard Span and Carlos Gomez – the one question in Minnesota is Centerfield. I’d put my money on Span.
Second – Chicago White Sox
The Sox are a centerfielder and a starter away from the Twins.
Key Players – Bartolo Colon and whoever ends up in centerfield.
Third- Detroit Tigers
Detroit may be closer to the Twins than the White Sox. They have the bats to cover for Adam Everett at shortstop. But I gave the White Sox the edge based on the intangibles of AJ Pierzynski over Gerald Laird.
Key Players – Laird and Everett - All the other pieces are there. If these two shore up the defense, the Tigers have enough to take the division.
Fourth – Cleveland Indians
The Indians are a team still playing steroid-era ball. I like what they’re doing with the pitching staff. I like Grady Sizemore in CF. I don’t like the gloves of Peralta at shortstop or Martinez behind the plate.
If Hafner gets back to 30 home run form they could make a run. I don’t see it. Ignore the glove issues and the Indians are a contender.
Key Players – Wood, Pavano and Hafner, if Wood closes and Pavano eats innings, the bats could surprise a lot of folks, but only if Hafner is the old Hafner.
Fifth - Kansas City Royals
Kansas City seems to have settled on big Mark Teahen at 2B. This team isn’t that bad. The bullpen is improved but the starting pitching still comes up short.
I’d move Juan Cruz into the rotation; the guy has the stuff of a young Pedro Martinez, and there aren’t a lot of pitchers in KC with stuff.
Key Players- Teahen and Cruz - How these guys adapt determines if the Royals start looking like a team with a future.
AL WEST
First – Texas Rangers
The Rangers could catch the Angels this year. They have the bats. The team is pretty solid up the middle but the pitching is just a hair short.
If the Angels stumble a little bit and the Rangers get a big year for Brandon McCarthy they could surprise. Three starters (Millwood, Padilla, and Benson) are gamers. The fifth Harrison could be. The bullpen looks shaky, but led by CJ Wilson, it could surprise.
Key Players – Brandon McCarthy and Omar Vizquel. McCarthy is a potential No. 1 starter in a rotation full of No. 3s. Vizquel’s work with Elvis Andrus and as a utility player is paramount.
Second - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
They have a nice middle defense and enough hitting and speed. Pitching could be an issue but fortunately for them that could be said for any team in the AL WEST. This looks like the year they come up just short.
Key Players- Escobar, Santana, Lackey all are hurting the defense and the bats look competitive.
Third - Seattle Mariners
A lot depends on Russell Branyan and the health of Ichiro. The Mariners aren’t really that bad. They have a solid duo at SS and 2B.
If the starting pitching gets healthy and tougher, they could surprise. The opposite of Texas, the Mariners pitchers just aren’t gamers. They have all the stuff in the world but seem to be hit hardest when the team needs an out the most.
Don’t be surprised by Ken Griffey Jr. He’s no kid anymore but the greatest ball player of his generation will do surprisingly well in his old stomping grounds.
Key Players – Russell Branyan and Eric Bedard. Any of the starters really, Silva, Bedard, Washburn, Rowland-Smith, Hernandez. If one gets it going, the rest could follow.
Fourth – Oakland A’s
Oakland has some nice pieces, most of them with injury histories. Rajai Davis should be starting in CF. Ryan Sweeney in RF and Jack Cust at 1B or DH.
Pitching has some nice starters and in this division that could be enough to challenge. If those old pieces stay healthy, the A’s could make a run.
Key Players – Sean Gallagher and Dana Eveland. Gallagher dropped from No. 2 starter to competing for a bullpen role. Not a good sign.
AL West: Texas
AL Central: Minnesota
AL East: Tampa Bay
AL Wild Card: LA Angels
The east is just too tough to put multiple teams in, all those games against good teams take their toll.
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