It seems like everyone is making their picks for who wins the AL East. I'm going to take it one step further and look at both the AL and NL East, arguably baseball's best divisions.
Lets start in the National League. The East is a powerful division. Will the defending World Champion Phillies again take the top spot? Will the Mets suffer another late-season collapse? Can the Marlins overtake them both? Will the Nats actually look good this year?
Barring major injuries and some fluky miracle season, here are my picks for the NL East.
1. New York Mets (2008: 89-73, 3 GB)
Here's why: K-Rod and J.J. Putz should ease the Mets' bullpen woes, somewhat. It will at least keep them from hemorrhaging so much at the end of games. They have a good offense anchored by David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran, so the Mets should be able to make the playoffs this year. If they don't, I give up—they must be cursed.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (2008: 92-10, WS Champs)
They kept most of their World Series-winning team together, backed by a great offense with players like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and Jimmy Rollins. However, the injury bug tends to bite hard the year after winning it all (look at the Red Sox from last year: same team, new injuries). Look for the wild card to come from the East this year.
3. Florida Marlins (2008: 84-77, 7 1/2 GB)
The Marlins are a good young team on a tight budget and could surprise everyone and take over the East this season. With Hanley Ramirez and excellent pitching, the Marlins are a force to be reckoned with. Look for them to hang around and make life miserable for the Mets and Phillies.
4. Atlanta Braves (2008: 72-90, 20 GB)
Atlanta made some good moves in the offseason with good pitching additions, but a weak offense will have them trailing the Mets, Phils, and Marlins this year. They are young, so look for the Braves to start contending more in a year or so.
5. Washington Nationals (2008: 59-102, 32 1/2 GB)
The Nats are young. I wouldn't look for them to be great this year, but I would expect a better season than 2008. They'll still come in at the bottom of the NL East, but with a much better record.
Now on to baseball's toughest division. The AL East has appeared in the World Series 54 times out of 104 series. Of those 54 appearances, they have won the World Series 38 times. That's a pretty impressive division, and it's only getting tougher.
Here are my (mostly) unbiased picks.
1. Boston Red Sox (2008: 95-67, 2 GB, wild card)
Boston made a few little moves in the offseason that will have a very big impact. "Bargain" additions of John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, and Junichi Tazawa make a decent bullpen and good pitching staff into a phenomenal pitching staff with a lights-out 'pen.
They have a few young guys to watch, both on the field and on the mound, and have several key players returning from injury in Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and Josh Beckett. This team came within one game of the World Series last year when they were hurt—now that everyone's back, look for them to retake the East.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (2008: 97-65, AL Champions)
Everyone is still waiting to see if the Rays are "for real." They are. The addition of Pat Burrell certainly helped the Rays, but they may have the same issue as the Phillies: health. In order for the Rays to compete, Troy Percival needs to stay healthy, and the pitching staff is a little lacking in depth.
The key cog in the Rays' wheel is David Price. He came in and pitched well late in the season, but once there's a legitimate scouting report out on him, major league hitters will figure him out. He has to stand up to the pressure and eat up good innings. If not, the Yankees may take back the second spot, and with it the AL wild card spot.
3. New York Yankees (2008: 89-73, 8 GB)
Why, if they spent $400 million on stellar players this offseason, are the Yankees in third? Because they spent millions of dollars on a very small number of players and neglected to give themselves some depth. CC Sabathia ate up a lot of innings last year, many times on short rest. It takes longer than a few months to recover from that and puts you at risk for injury.
A.J. Burnett should do okay, and the addition of Mark Teixeira will definitely help the Yanks, but without much of a bullpen and with starters who don't always eat up innings, the Yanks may find themselves losing games late. Mariano Rivera, great closer that he is, is also approaching 40 and will start to decline.
The Yanks will keep things interesting and be competitive, making things tough for the Rays and Red Sox.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (2008: 86-76, 11 GB)
The Jays, in any other division, would be a playoff team every year. The loss of Burnett could hurt them, but they still have Roy Halladay and a great pitching staff. They are looking for some players to return to form and some young guys to give them a lift, but probably not enough to compete for a playoff spot because their division is so tough.
5. Baltimore Orioles (2008: 68-93, 28 1/2 GB)
Though the Orioles have a young, good offense, their lack of pitching means they will again be in last place in the division. Look for them to do a little better than last year, but with a division this tough, where they have to face the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Jays in 72 games this season, it's going to be a difficult year.
News from the Weekend
The Red Sox locked up LHP Jon Lester for five years and ended talks (temporarily) with OF Jason Bay. Because of his free agent status at the end of the 2009 season and the down economy, Bay decided to wait and see what the market does. He would like to stay in Boston, but not at a cut rate when he could get more elsewhere.
Dustin Pedroia has a minor abdominal strain and will need a few days of rest before resuming baseball activities. The injury is minor and should not affect his opening day status.
The shortstop debate is over for the Red Sox, at least temporarily. Julio Lugo will have arthroscopic surgery on his knee tomorrow and will be out of opening day. Jed Lowrie will (most likely) start the season as the Red Sox shortstop.
Manny Ramirez started his spring training by being pulled from a game due to a hamstring injury. After trying to cut off a double in left field, he felt tightness in his hamstring and was pinch hit for in the bottom of the fourth inning.
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