Hey, you. Did you know pitchers and catchers report for spring training next week? Cue the Monty Python, for that's worthy of much rejoicing!
...Unless, of course, I've already lost you. Maybe you know nothing of this "training" that is done in "spring" and are in need of a crash course.
Well, the first thing you need to know is that spring training is when Major League Baseball's 30 teams gather in Arizona and Florida to prepare for the coming season. It consists mainly of drills and exhibition games, as well as side activities like documentary filmmaking and alligator hunting.
Beyond that, it's all about what's worth your attention. To the former, don't pay attention to numbers. To the latter, do pay attention to exciting new contenders, position battles, prospects, comebacks and, for kicks and giggles, unusually fit players and weird injuries.
Let's break it down.
Whatever You Do, Don't Trust the Numbers
As mentioned above, yes, there are actual games in spring training. And just like in the regular season, records are kept of what happens. That means numbers, which are like bakery-fresh cookies for baseball fans.
But here's the thing: If we were to write a Don't Do What Donny Don't Does book on spring training, not trusting spring training numbers would be on page one.
For starters, how teams perform in spring training generally isn't indicative of how they'll play in real games. There's research to support that conclusion, including a study by Lewie Pollis of Beyond the Box Score that found "about 11 percent of a team's talent level is reflected in its spring training record."
Even a really good or really bad spring isn't especially predictive. I used MLB.com's records to look at how many clubs since 2006 went from being either top-10 or bottom-10 teams in spring training to top-10 or bottom-10 teams in the regular season.
Fewer than half of the really good or really bad performances of the spring have carried over.
Sure, some springs have predicted the majority of the top 10 or bottom 10 teams. But overall? No, not really.
One of the biggest reasons for this has to do with individual performances during the spring. It turns out the carry-over effect is pretty weak there too.
Writing at FiveThirtyEight.com last spring, Neil Paine found that offensive performances are predictive only when they're particularly good or bad. And even then, they're "only slightly" predictive.
As for pitchers, Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs found that spring strikeout and walk rates can be predictive. Spring earned run averages, however, are "completely useless."
You're welcome to look at spring training statistics, of course, because what the heck. But if you find yourself thinking they might mean something, check yourself. And yes, when yours truly inevitably does it, be sure to remind me we had this conversation.
Now then. Let's get to the good stuff.
The New Contenders on the Block
A lot happens between the end of the World Series and the start of spring training. Players come and go through trades and free agency, and teams are completely transformed in the process.
Spring training offers the first chance to see the teams with new looks, which is particularly exciting with clubs aiming to go from pretending to contending. Such as...
San Diego Padres
With new general manager A.J. Preller at the controls, the previously boring-as-all-get-out Padres traded for heaps of offensive firepower in Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Derek Norris and recently capped their frenzied offseason by adding James Shields to their rotation. The Padres now look pretty solid on paper and certainly worth watching for the first time in a long time.
Chicago White Sox
Because Jose Abreu and Chris Sale weren't enough in 2014, GM Rick Hahn bolstered the White Sox's star power by trading for Jeff Samardzija and signing Melky Cabrera, David Robertson and Adam LaRoche. It's debatable how good the White Sox are, but, like the Padres, at least they're interesting again.
Boston Red Sox
After following their championship run in 2013 with a "pluh" season in 2014, the Red Sox tore it all down and built it back up by bringing in Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson. Their roster now looks entirely different and entirely more dangerous.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins surprised a lot of people by being reasonably competent in 2014 and then did it again when they inked Giancarlo Stanton to the biggest contract in baseball history. They then acquired Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Martin Prado and Mike Morse, signaling they clearly mean business in 2015.
Chicago Cubs
Hey, the Cubs were actually halfway decent in the second half of 2014. And now they have Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler to go with their overflowing basket of gifted prospects. They're not quite an obvious contender, but them even being a "maybe" contender is a big step up.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays offense was good enough to push them to 83 wins in 2014. Now, that offense has Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Michael Saunders, and the team's pitching staff is ready to be influenced by a group of talented youngsters led by Marcus Stroman. Behold a team that could be tons of fun.
Watch These Position Battles
Spring training begins with a lot of players locked into given positions. But there are some positions with question marks looming over them that must be erased before Opening Day.
To do that, teams hold position battles. Every team has at least a couple of them outside of the No. 5 spots in their rotations, but there are always a few in particular that are worth monitoring. Such as...
Boston Red Sox Outfield
This, friends, is a good one. Though Ramirez is locked into left field, Cuban import Rusney Castillo and top prospect Mookie Betts aren't quite locked into center and right. They'll be challenged by Shane Victorino, Allen Craig and Daniel Nava, and any of the three could make a strong push for a job.
Arizona Diamondbacks Third Base
If the Diamondbacks have their wish, the hot corner will belong to high-priced Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas. But while manager Chip Hale told Steve Gilbert of MLB.com that Tomas has been "fantastic" with his work ethic, his inexperience at third may ultimately lead them to consider other positions for him.
Washington Nationals Rotation
When the Nationals signed Max Scherzer for $210 million, his addition seemed to mean Tanner Roark's ouster from a rotation that also included Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez. However, it appears the Nationals remembered Roark's 2.85 ERA from 2014 and decided to bring him to camp as a starter. Prepare for what should be a dandy of a rotation battle.
New York Yankees Closer
The Yankees closer job went from Mariano Rivera to David Robertson and will now go to either incumbent stud Dellin Betances or high-priced lefty Andrew Miller. Both throw hard with awesome breaking balls, and both had sick numbers in 2014. In Ken Watanabe's words, let them fight.
Pittsburgh Pirates Shortstop
Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang thinks he can take Jordy Mercer's job, which is fascinating on a couple of levels. No hitter has ever made the jump from the Korean Baseball Organization to MLB, and Kang might be the guy to do so after hitting 40 homers with a 1.198 OPS last year.
Watch These Prospects
There are going to be a lot of prospects running around doing prospect things this spring. But if you want to focus on only the best of the best who actually have something to play for, there's...
Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Bryant is a beast of a prospect who destroyed the competition in the minors last year, hitting .325 with a 1.098 OPS and 43 dingers. And though the Cubs are being coy about his chances of breaking camp with the club, the recent trade of Luis Valbuena pushed the door wide open for Bryant.
Joc Pederson, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' decision to trade Kemp seemed designed to open up center field for Pederson, who had a 30-30 season complete with a 1.017 OPS in the minors last year. But while it looks like center field is all his, club boss Andrew Friedman has refused to hand it to him on a silver platter. Heat's on, kid.
Dalton Pompey, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
Pompey is one of MLB.com's top 10 outfield prospects, and he's essentially in the same boat as Pederson in that he's poised to become a regular in center field after a season that included 43 steals and an .861 OPS in the minors. If he looks the part, Toronto's lineup will be even more dangerous.
Aaron Sanchez, RP/SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Speaking of talented Blue Jays prospects, both Sanchez and fellow top prospect Daniel Norris will be in camp. But Sanchez carries extra intrigue because he could break camp as a starter or as Toronto's closer. Either way, his stuff will make your eyes literally (read: figuratively) pop out of your skull.
Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Heaney is regarded as one of baseball's best left-handed prospects, but you might say he has big shoes to fill. The Angels traded Howie Kendrick's dependable bat to get him, and they appear to be relying on him to complete their rotation behind Garrett Richards, Jered Weaver, Matt Shoemaker and C.J. Wilson.
Yoan Moncada, Something, Somewhere
We don't know which position Moncada is going to play or for which team. But as soon as we know, you'll want to have the 19-year-old Cuban super-prospect on your radar. Word is he's pretty good.
"He could be the next Robinson Cano [or] Chase Utley, but more Cano," one evaluator told Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. "That's the kind of potential bat we're talking about."
Yeah, that good.
Watch These Comeback Storylines
You can keep your eyes on the Mike Trouts, Clayton Kershaws and Andrew McCutchens if you want, but we know what they can do. They're stars in their prime who are going to do stars-in-their-prime things.
More interesting, however, are the players who are looking to make a comeback to star status. And while honorable mentions are owed to injury storylines like Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Masahiro Tanaka, Ryan Braun, Garrett Richards, Manny Machado, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, you really need to pay attention to...
Alex Rodriguez, DH, New York Yankees
Yes, he's back. Rodriguez is returning from a season-long suspension stemming from MLB's investigation into Biogenesis, and he's looking for his first healthy and productive season since 2010. Whether he can even look the part of a viable major leaguer, however, is something we're going to find out.
Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets
Harvey missed all of 2014 thanks to Tommy John surgery, but he's going to be at full strength this spring. Hopefully, that will mean a quick return to the otherworldly mix of sizzling stuff and pinpoint command that made him arguably baseball's best pitcher when he was healthy in 2013.
Prince Fielder, 1B, Texas Rangers
Fielder wasn't his usual self with the Detroit Tigers in 2013, and he was even worse with the Rangers in 2014 before he went in for season-ending neck surgery. Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News has a story up about how Fielder feels like he has a new lease on life and baseball, but we'll see about that.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
Wieters hasn't quite recovered from the Tommy John operation that ended his 2014 season after only 26 games, but he told Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun that he should be "good to go" for Opening Day. The Orioles hope so, as they need Wieters to be a big bat after losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.
Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
Cain is coming off two straight lousy years, the most recent of which was limited to 15 starts before elbow surgery shut him down. If he can respond to that by getting back to being the All-Star pitcher he was between 2009 and 2012, the Giants rotation suddenly won't look so bad after Madison Bumgarner.
Keep an Eye on the BSOHL Club
Yes, the "Best Shape of His Life Club" is a real spring training tradition. Real enough to inspire a Baseball Prospectus investigation and real enough for Hardball Talk to keep track of the new members.
For 2015, it's not a big list just yet. But so far, the 2015 BSOHL Club includes:
- Mets reliever Bobby Parnell
- Mariners catcher/failed prospect Jesus Montero
- Free-agent lefty Phil Coke
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia (sort of)
- White Sox right fielder Avisail Garcia
- Blue Jays utility man Maicer Izturis
Everyone and anyone is a candidate to join the 2015 BSOHL Club. Except for maybe Bartolo Colon, but that's OK. That would mean so many lost GIFs, and we can't have that.
Lastly, Let's Predict the Inevitable Weird Injuries
To be sure, plenty of legitimate injuries happen every spring. But so do many weird ones.
In 2013 alone, we got a scorpion sting, a painful tattoo, a sandwich-related neck injury and canine-related face rugburn. We've also had Hunter Pence fall through a glass door and Richie Sexson hurt his neck trying to wear a tiny cap.
Based on these injuries, I think we can fairly predict the following for 2015:
- Chupacabra bite
- Fungo bat in ear
- Baseball in nose
- Scorched heel from hot foot prank
- Fell asleep on cactus
- Toe run over by a Segway
- Cat-scratch fever (seriously)
- Hydrogen psychosis
- Stickittodamaneosis
- Trying to be like Channing Tatum
To the players: Be careful out there, guys. Spring training is when the injury bug is possessed by Loki.
To everyone else: That's pretty much it. You are now ready for spring training. Don't take it too seriously, but do enjoy what's there to be enjoyed.
Especially the baseball. Especially the baseball.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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