It’s not a coincidence that many of the biggest trades in recent years have involved blue-chip prospects. With the market rate for impact players on the rise and teams trying to manage their payrolls more economically, prospects, though unproven in nature, have come to represent a form of currency.
Prior to the 2013 season, the Kansas City Royals dealt Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and two additional prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis. That was the same offseason the Toronto Blue Jays sent a prospect package containing Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud to the Mets for R.A Dickey, and the Braves acquired Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, Nick Ahmed and two young pitchers.
This offseason already feels like it’s going to feature blockbuster trades involving prospects, as several big-name free agents have already come off the board in an overall thin class. And with the annual winter meetings on the horizon, it shouldn’t be long until we get a better idea of which top prospects might be traded.
Here’s an in-depth look at two blue-chip prospects who, if made available, could be linchpins in an offseason blockbuster trade.
Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
Noah Syndergaard had a rough season at Triple-A Las Vegas on paper, posting a 4.60 ERA in 133 innings while opposing hitters raked against him at a .293 clip (10.4 hits per nine innings).
However, the 22-year-old right-hander’s 3.70 FIP highlights that his numbers were inflated by the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Specifically, opposing hitters batted .378 on balls in play against Syndergaard, yet he kept the ball in the park at an impressive rate of 0.74 home runs per nine innings. On top of that, he once again held his own against older hitters while maintaining strong strikeout (9.81 strikeouts per nine innings) and walk (2.91 walks per nine innings) rates.
Syndergaard’s control and ability to throw strikes always has been one of his strengths, highlighted by his sub-seven percent walk rate over the last two years. The right-hander managed to limit the free passes even in his rougher outings this year, and his command should only improve with experience.
With a 6’6”, 240-pound frame, few pitchers in the minors have Syndergaard’s combination of front-of-the-rotation upside and physical durability. Meanwhile, the 22-year-old’s power arsenal of three potential plus pitches (four pitches overall), highlighted by a high-90s fastball and devastating curveball, will always help him miss bats. And after striking out 10 batters per nine innings over his five-year career in the minors, it wouldn’t be surprising if Syndergaard maintained a favorable strikeout rate in the major leagues.
A look at Syndergaard’s future teammates’ minor versus major league strikeout rates also suggests he’ll continue to pile up strikeouts moving forward.
Syndergaard learned this year that he can’t succeed with pure stuff alone despite consistently working within the zone and will need to execute his full arsenal more efficiently. Triple-A Las Vegas pitching coach Frank Viola played a major role in Syndergaard’s development, as he instructed the right-hander to shake off his catcher more, learn how to pitch without his best stuff and develop his secondary pitches, especially his changeup, according to Tim Rohan of The New York Times.
It’s worth noting that Syndergaard gave everyone a scare with a minor elbow injury in late May, though it was a non-issue over the rest of the season and didn’t play a role in the Mets' decision not to call him up for the final month of the season.
"You always want to see the prospects," said Mets manager Terry Collins, via Marc Carig of Newsday. "I know one thing I don't want to have happen is have him be called up and have five innings to work with. Start him in a game, have him go five and shut him down for the rest of the year, I'm not sure that's a fair assessment of what he can do."
The Mets have a wealth of talent on the farm, both position players and pitchers, but most teams will target Syndergaard in any sort of blockbuster deal. The Mets aren’t in any hurry to deal major league assets such as Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom, especially when the trio are yet to pitch in the same starting rotation, suggesting they’re more likely to deal from their surplus of pitching prospects.
The Mets are focused on adding a shortstop this offseason, and they’re still in the market for power even after signing free agent Michael Cuddyer to a two-year deal.
One potential trade target is Justin Upton of the Atlanta Braves, suggests John Harper of the New York Daily News. However, he notes the Mets would likely have to part with Syndergaard in exchange for the left fielder’s consistent power:
As for trading Syndergaard, the Mets could try to sell the Braves on a package involving some combination of Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Rafael Montero and Jenrry Mejia, but the scarcity of right-handed power in the game is likely to demand the inclusion of Syndergaard.
As it is, the Mets might have to sell the Braves on someone other than Zack Wheeler. And the fact is that Syndergaard, after a rocky year in Triple-A, isn’t quite the untouchable he was at this time last year, especially with lefty Steven Matz emerging as the new darling of the organization.
But even if the Mets make Syndergaard available this offseason, they’re unlikely to trade him unless presented with an ideal deal, one that directly addresses their needs for the 2015 season (and beyond) while offering something more than a marginal upgrade.
Joey Gallo, 3B/OF, Texas Rangers
Joey Gallo is a physical specimen at 6’5”, 205 pounds with enormous, 80-grade raw power. The combination of his quick wrists, explosive bat speed and lofty swing give him effortless in-game power to all fields, and it’s easy to envision the 20-year-old being a true 35-home run threat at the highest level.
“He’s got power. He’s got the ability to even mis-hit a ball and be able to hit the ball to both sides of the ballpark. He doesn’t have to be strictly a pull hitter to show power,” said Rangers’ short-season coach Rick Down, via Josh Norris of Baseball America.
“That gives him the luxury of being able to hit the ball where it’s pitched. He needs to play and just be able to trust what he’s got. He separates himself from the masses of the pack with his swing and his ability to hit the ball for distance and power.”
Beyond the power, Gallo, a left-handed hitter, demonstrated better plate discipline and pitch recognition this past season after adjusting his swing mechanics (subscription required), as he improved both his strikeout (33.3 percent) and walk (16.2 percent) rates and hit for a solid average (.271) without sacrificing any power (42 HR, .344 ISO). Gallo will always be a streaky hitter and have a considerable amount of swing-and-misses to his game, but he’s also learning to work counts and take walks, therefore allowing him to see more hittable pitches.
So what does Gallo’s prodigious power say about his future?
The Marlins made Giancarlo Stanton the richest player in the history of everything Monday because he does one thing better than any other player in the game: hit home runs. And at 25, he projects to do it for a long time.
Stanton’s 154 homers over the last five seasons—the first five seasons of his career—ties him for third (with Albert Pujols) among all hitters during the time frame, as only Miguel Cabrera (187) and Jose Bautista (187) hit more, per FanGraphs.
Before that, though, Stanton was showcasing his obscene power in the minor leagues much like Gallo has over the last three years. Here’s a look at how the two sluggers’ respective minor league careers:
Stanton began full-season ball at 18 while Gallo spent his age-18 campaign between the rookie and short-season levels, but other than that, there’s a clear overlap between both players’ respective offensive development.
A strong argument can be made that Gallo’s first three professional seasons have been better than Stanton’s, as he’s hit for more power (in terms of extra-base hit percentage, home runs and ISO) while walking at a higher clip—hence the higher OPS.
The only thing Stanton has on Gallo is fewer whiffs, and his tolerable strikeout rate likely played a part in Miami’s decision to promote him directly from Double-A to the major leagues in 2010 in his age-20 season. However, Stanton spent the second half of the previous year at Double-A, which lines up perfectly with Gallo’s 2014 campaign. That means if Gallo continues down Stanton’s path next year, then he’s likely to spend a good chunk of season with the Rangers.
Gallo has worked to become a quality defender at third base, but his present average range is likely to worsen as he ages due to his 6’5” frame. He still boasts the plus-plus arm strength that produced mid-90s fastballs in high school, though, which will always be a clean fit at the position.
But with Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder blocking his path to the major leagues, it’s not surprising that the Rangers started giving Gallo reps at other positions this fall in instructional ball. Specifically, the Rangers had him working out at both corner outfield positions and even gave him some time at shortstop, per Jim Callis of MLB.com. However, he notes the time spent by Gallo at the latter position was intended to “enhance his first-step quickness.”
Stanton’s contract gives the Rangers 325 million reasons not to trade Gallo this offseason, or for that matter, anytime soon. With power coming at a premium these days and Gallo entering his first full season at the Double-A level, the organization would be crazy not to at least see what he can do in the coming years.
But if they were to make him available, it’s a safe bet that they could land almost any pitcher they want, save for possibly Cole Hamels, who might require a two-player return. Legitimate 80-grade power such as Gallo’s doesn’t grow on trees, and there are countless teams that would invest in his future given the opportunity.
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