The Toronto Blue Jays will look to push the American League Divisional Series back home for a decisive Game 5 with a second consecutive win Monday afternoon against the Texas Rangers in Game 4.
As R.A. Dickey and Derek Holland prepare to take the ball in such a pivotal game, both the Blue Jays and Rangers will feel good about their chances of scoring runs. There’s also the potential of a David Price bullpen sighting that could alter the landscape of the series.
There are plenty of keys to discuss before the first pitch, so let’s identify a handful of factors that could directly affect Game 4.
Playoff Knuckleball
With the season hanging in the balance, Toronto has chosen to go with knuckleball specialist R.A. Dickey in Game 4. The right-hander posted a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts this season.
Dickey will bring his knuckleball into October for the first time. In 2015, that pitch ranged from 66-82 mph and resulted in pretty even batted-ball data across the board. Dickey did lower his walk rate to right around 6 percent when using it, which proves that while unpredictable, he has elite command of the pitch.
In the video below, the elusiveness of Dickey's knuckleball is on full display. Baltimore Orioles hitters had no idea where it was going throughout the game, leading to a frustrating night at the dish.
As always, hitters must be patient when facing Dickey. The Rangers were exactly that during the regular season, ranking 24th in baseball with a 30.2 percent chase rate. It’s understandable for players like Prince Fielder to be a bit more aggressive, but Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus and Delino Deshields Jr. won’t be bothered with pitches dancing out of the strike zone.
If Dickey is on, he’ll test even the most patient of hitters. But Texas has the disciplined lineup to counter what can be a frustrating pitch.
The Price Effect
David Price didn’t have the finest of starts in Game 1, but the southpaw remains one of the best pitchers in baseball.
A best-case scenario for the Blue Jays is to get plenty of runs early in Game 4 and coast to a comfortable victory. That way, Price can be used as the starter in a decisive Game 5.
But if Dickey gets into trouble, don’t be surprised to see Price enter Game 4 out of the bullpen.
Price hasn’t been much different as a reliever in a small sample size during his major league career. The 30-year-old has a 1.86 ERA in 9.2 innings and has held opponents to a .147 average.
With Brett Cecil out of action after tearing his calf earlier in the series, Price gives Toronto a short-term option to combat left-handed hitters in the late innings. A competent Marcus Stroman waits in the wings for a potential Game 5, so a lengthy relief stint from Price out of the bullpen might be the way to go.
Holland vs. Toronto Lineup
It’s been a long road, but Derek Holland will return to the place where he made a name for himself earlier in his career: October.
Holland has missed the majority of the last two seasons with injuries, but he came back at the end of 2015 to earn a spot on the postseason roster. Those 10 starts were a mixed bag, as the left-hander posted a 4.91 ERA and allowed 11 homers.
But Holland has enjoyed success in the postseason. He boasts a 3.79 ERA in 35.2 October innings. In 2011, Holland made six appearances in the playoffs and recorded a 3.38 ERA in those outings.
Unfortunately for Holland, he’ll take on a Toronto lineup that crushes left-handed pitching. The Blue Jays ranked first in MLB in slugging percentage, OPS, isolated power and weighted runs created plus and second in batting average and on-base percentage against southpaws this season.
Holland has positive playoff experience to draw from, and he’ll need to do so against Toronto. On paper, there’s not a more unappealing matchup for the left-hander.
Defense Matters
Shaky defensive work already cost Toronto dearly in Game 2, but there will be even more chances for defensive miscues with Dickey and Holland pitching.
Dickey posted one of the lowest strikeout-per-nine-inning totals of his career in 2015 while allowing an 81.5 percent contact rate. Holland had similar numbers, striking out less than 17 percent of the batters he faced and allowing an 83.9 percent contact rate.
The Blue Jays were the better defensive team during the regular season, but both clubs have liabilities. When the lineups are released, don't be surprised to see both managers think defense first with two contact-heavy pitchers on the mound.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 12.
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