After missing their chance to clinch a World Series berth on Wednesday, the Kansas City Royals return to Kauffman Stadium, where they have won their last three postseason games, with a chance to eliminate the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series on Friday.
The Blue Jays have been at their best in the playoffs when facing elimination, winning four consecutive games in those situations and averaging 6.5 runs per game.
Something has to give on Friday with the Royals looking to set up a showdown with the New York Mets in the Fall Classic and the Blue Jays hoping to force a winner-take-all seventh game on Saturday.
What They Are Saying
Even though the Blue Jays kept themselves in the playoffs, Royals manager Ned Yost said after Game 5 that there's no reason for his team to be lacking in confidence right now, per Gregor Chisholm and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.
Now we're going back to a place where we're completely comfortable. That's why home-field was so important to us. We really wanted to play four games in our park. And we're taking a 3-2 lead back to where we are comfortable and back to our home fans that support us and are fantastic.
While that can be passed off as manager speak, Yost isn't wrong to be feeling good. His team's success at home in these playoffs has already been mentioned, but the Royals also had a 51-30 mark in front of their home fans this year.
That is the third-best home record in the American League this season, behind the two teams Kansas City has played in the postseason—the Houston Astros and Toronto tied for the best home record at 53-28.
Waiting for the Royals in Game 6 is David Price, who was virtually unhittable for six innings in Game 2 until Ryan Goins and Jose Bautista botched a routine pop-up off the bat of Ben Zobrist in the bottom of the seventh inning that led to a five-run inning and a 6-3 win for Kansas City.
All eyes will be on Price. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball for years, winning a Cy Young Award in 2012 and leading all American League pitchers with a 6.4 FanGraphs' WAR this season.
Yet for all of the accolades Price has already won and could win this offseason, his playoff results have left a lot to be desired, per High Heat Stats on Twitter:
There's no logical reason why a pitcher as consistently good, dominant and talented as Price, who is still very much in the prime of his career at the age of 30, has struggled in the postseason.
It's a small sample size relative to a 162-game regular season, but these are the moments by which pitchers are judged. Position players can flip their narrative in a heartbeat because they get at least four at-bats every game. Playing once every fifth day doesn't afford starting pitchers that same luxury.
The Royals are turning to Yordano Ventura, who has had his own problems this postseason. The 24-year-old has allowed nine runs on 16 hits in 12.1 innings over three starts, so the Blue Jays should be able to keep their offensive momentum going.
However, Yost has the luxury Toronto manager John Gibbons doesn't when going to the bullpen. Lee Judge of the Kansas City Star wrote after Game 4 that the Royals are an unusually structured team:
The Royals are one win away from going to their second World Series in a row, and two of their starting pitchers in the playoffs finished the regular season with ERAs over 4.00. The starting pitchers do not have to be great; they just need to avoid disaster and give the Royals’ offense and bullpen a chance.
The Royals lost Greg Holland to Tommy John surgery late in the season but don't worry because Wade Davis remains an unhittable monster with his 0.94 regular season ERA and no runs allowed in the playoffs since Game 5 of last year's World Series.
Before Yost turns things over to Davis, he brings in Kelvin Herrera, who throws 100 mph fastballs, or starter-turned-playoff-reliever Danny Duffy to do his thing, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports:
All the Royals need Ventura to do is throw five innings of decent baseball—which could amount to three runs allowed—before turning things over to the slew of talented relievers who can shut down a lineup as good as Toronto's.
Prediction
The postseason went from being drama-filled in the division series, with three out of four matchups going all five games. The National League Championship Series was disappointing unless you are a New York Mets fan because it ended in four games.
The Blue Jays kept hope alive for a decisive seventh game on Wednesday, needing one more win to put pressure on Kansas City.
Kauffman Stadium does not line up for Toronto's offensive strength, which is power. It's a big ballpark that takes a lot of power to drive the ball out. One reason the Royals are so great at home is because their hitters make contact and have the speed to take an extra base.
Eventually, Price will put everything together in the playoffs. He's too good not to, as the Royals saw for six innings in Game 2.
The Blue Jays have to come out of the gate strong, force Yost to go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning rather than fifth or sixth and get Price to throw seven strong innings.
If for no other reason than hoping to see a Game 7, the Blue Jays get the slight edge in Friday's matchup.
Blue Jays 5, Royals 2
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