For the Toronto Blue Jays, Game 6 of the American League Championship Series—set for Friday at 8:07 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1—is a must-win. For the Kansas City Royals, it's a you-really-should-win.
Either way, to paraphrase a certain presidential candidate, it's going to be huge.
The Royals, who hold a 3-2 series edge after dropping Game 5 in Toronto, will send hard-throwing, young right-hander Yordano Ventura to the hill. Toronto will counter with veteran lefty and trade-deadline pickup David Price.
Of course, this ALCS has been dominated by offense. The winning teams have plated 43 combined runs through the first five games, an average of 8.6 runs per contest.
As we wait to see if that scoreboard-straining trend continues—and, more essentially, whether we'll get a Game 7—let's examine a few keys that could tip the outcome one way or the other.
Mother Nature Steps to the Plate
There's rain in the forecast in Kansas City, and while it should taper off by game time, according to Weather.com, it could create less-than-ideal field conditions.
That might mean players slipping and sliding and possibly a few costly errors from the Royals and Jays, who ranked No. 2 and No. 9 in defensive runs saved during the regular season, respectively, per FanGraphs.
The storm rolling through K.C. is also bringing some wind. If it's blowing out on Friday evening, that figures to aid power hitters on both sides.
The powerful Jays paced all of baseball in home runs this year and have clubbed 12 in the playoffs. That's one fewer than the Royals, who have discovered their power stroke in October after finishing second-to-last in long balls among AL clubs in the regular season.
Of course, if the wind is blowing in, it may increase Kauffman Stadium's dinger-suppressing tendencies. The Royals' yard was the third-least conducive to big flies in the Junior Circuit, according to ESPN's Park Factors statistic.
A stiff breeze pushing balls back from whence they came could turn it into a genuine home run graveyard.
The Kauffman Effect
Speaking of Kauffman Stadium, the Royals have won four out of five games there in the ALDS and ALCS after posting an impressive 51-30 home record in the regular season.
And the fans are ravenous. Last season, recall, K.C. lost Game 7 of the World Series in front of the northwestern Missouri faithful, with the tying run standing on third base.
Now, with the Royals one win away from a return Fall Classic engagement, expect their boosters to be electric from the word "go."
"I can say without bias that Kauffman Stadium is the loudest place in baseball," reliever Danny Duffy said, per Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. "No disrespect to other fans, but Kauffman Stadium is the loudest. And that gets us fired up."
A Battle of Aces or a Duel of Duds?
When he came over in a late-July trade with the Detroit Tigers, Price was the cavalry that was supposed to carry the Blue Jays over the finish line. Instead, he's surrendered 17 hits and 13 runs in 16.2 innings this postseason and now owns a 5.24 career playoff ERA.
Ventura, meanwhile, has given up 16 hits and nine runs in 12.1 innings in three postseason starts.
Both pitchers are capable of greatness. Price is a former AL Cy Young winner, and the mercurial Ventura has teased ace-level stuff.
A few K.C. hitters have had career success against Price, including outfielders Alex Rios (12-for-30, four doubles, one triple, two home runs, 10 RBI) and Lorenzo Cain (4-for-11 with a home run). Toronto's hitters, meanwhile, have minimal experience against Ventura.
In the final analysis, the Jays need a big game from Price more than the Royals need one from Ventura.
Despite the loss of closer Greg Holland to Tommy John surgery, Kansas City's bullpen owns a 2.65 postseason ERA, the best mark among teams that advanced to the league championship round. Toronto's relief corps, by contrast, sports an unsightly 5.50 ERA.
So this is Price's moment. It's his opportunity to keep the Blue Jays breathing, shed whatever high-pressure stigma he's toting and maximize his stock heading into free agency. Here's how ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick put it:
Ultimately, the Blue Jays acquired Price from Detroit at the trade deadline in July for this very moment. If Price wants to make a statement that he's worth the $200 million-plus contract that he's angling for in free agency this winter, there's no more declarative way to do it than beating the Royals to extend a six-game series to seven.
"I guess this is the time that counts," said Price, who was cruising through six innings in Game 2 of the ALCS before coughing it up in the seventh. "What I did in the regular season doesn't matter. Everybody is going to say whatever they want to say and write what they want to write. And I completely get that, but I know good things are going to happen."
Prediction
The grounds crew will do its darndest, but the weather will play a role, leading to at least one significant defensive misplay. Kauffman Stadium plus the wind will suppress both teams' power, and we'll be treated to an old-fashioned pitchers' duel, or something close to it, with Price prevailing and the Jays forcing Game 7.
All statistics current as of Oct. 22 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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