Don’t believe what you have read about Bobby Jenks over the last couple of years—the former ChiSox closer has not lost his stuff. Jenks’ troubles in Chicago largely stemmed from a large dose of bad luck and an even larger menu of problems he had with his old boss, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen.
The righty still has pretty decent stuff, but it says here that his arrival does not necessarily signal an end to RHP Jonathan Papelbon’s tenure in Boston—as was conjectured by Peter Abraham in today’s Boston Globe.
My guess is that the Red Sox will go into arbitration with Pappy, then swallow hard and pay his salary—which will be in excess of eight figures after the arbitration award is made. But I don’t expect them to ship him elsewhere in the interim or to let him walk at the end of the 2011 season, at least not without making a concerted effort to get his name on a long-term deal.
The organization’s recent offer to Mariano Rivera doesn’t mean the team is ready to turn its back on Pappy. The bottom line is the Sox had a chance to add a Hall-of-Fame closer while simultaneously hurting the Yankees, and they would have been foolish not to do so, if at all possible.
But that kind of opportunity rarely presents itself and the team would have been foolish not to explore the possibility…and it doesn’t mean they have washed their hands of Papelbon all together.
Jenks will provide the club with insurance against injury (or continued decline) in the short-run and leverage (in negotiations) in the long-run, as well as a fall back position for 2012 if Papelbon should depart at the end of the 2011 season. Jenks has been promised the opportunity to compete for the closer’s role when and if Papelbon departs. But that doesn’t mean the club will usher Pappy out the door to make room for Jenks.
The front office was never enamored of Papelbon’s proclamations that he would eventually test free agency and seek to establish a record for the highest salary ever paid to a closer, nor were they pleased that he has thwarted their efforts to get his John Hancock on a long-term contract, a la Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.
But Pappy softened his stance last offseason after a rough ’09 and his historic playoff implosion, and it seems likely that he now understands he will never land a record-setting deal in free agency.
While Papelbon’s 2009 numbers appear pretty good (1-1, 1.85), a closer look reveals he struggled throughout the campaign:
His WHIP topped 1.00 (1.147) for the first time since his rookie season.
His OPS-against reached .600 (.600) for the first time since his rookie season.
His overall strike-percentage dipped to a career-low of 65 percent as his walks-per-9-innings-pitched surmounted 3.0 (3.2) for the first time since his rookie season.
His strikeout-to-walk ratio, which had ranged between 5.6 and 9.6 over the previous three years, slipped to a pedestrian 3.17—not exactly the stuff of an elite closer.
And then nearly every one of those numbers got worse in 2010 (with the exception of strike-percentage, which increased just one point, to 66 percent). He finished the year at 5-7, 3.90, with 37 saves (but had eight blown saves). So, does that mean the Red Sox are ready to turn things over to Jenks? Hardly!
Whether the club decides to make a long-term, big-money commitment to Papelbon will largely depend on how he performs in 2011. If he returns to the form he had in 2006-08, then it seems likely the Sox will attempt to get his name on a two- or three-year deal (with the club’s preference for a two-year deal).
As I stated earlier, Jenks numbers from 2010 look pretty bleak on their face: he finished 1-3, with a career-low 27 saves and a 4.44 ERA. He also posted a whopping 1.367 WHIP. The bloated ERA can be explained (in large part) by a .354 BABIP… otherwise, none of his numbers are dramatically different from his career numbers.
He has had a career-long battle with bases on balls (2.9/9 IP), and his career OPS is .642. His strike-percentage has declined each of the last four seasons (68-67-66-65%), but he has never posted a mark of 70 percent or above (which Pappy did in both 2007 and 2008). Jenks’ career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.04.
By comparison, Papelbon has better career numbers across the board and, in fact, many of his worst-year numbers are comparable to Jenks’s career AVERAGES—which means that even at his worst Papelbon offers what Jenks has done, on average—throughout his entire career.
THAT is the guy you think Theo and Company want to transition to? It says here the answer to that question is “no," and that if the answer is “yes” then the Sox front office is operating with flawed logic.
It is my theory that the Red Sox would have moved on to Rivera, for obvious reasons. But lacking that, GM Theo Epstein reverted back into chess-mode—strategizing five moves ahead of everyone else. As a keen strategist, Theo has provided his ballclub with insurance and leverage.
Jenks provides the team with both, and lengthens the bullpen nicely—but he does not provide them with a replacement for Papelbon (at least not if they want to win the World Series in 2011).
I believe the Red Sox will wait to see how Papelbon performs in his contract year. And, as has been the organizational norm under this ownership and management, if he re-gains his form of a few years ago the club will approach him with a multi-year deal at the end of the season—on THEIR terms.
Then it will be up to Pappy whether he wants to stay and compete for a world championship each year, or whether he wants to move on for a bigger contract.
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