Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Jonathan Papelbon each face the daunting challenge of regaining the old velocity and movement on their fastballs. That's a hard thing for any pitcher to do when their fastball has begun to decline.
It may sound over-simplified, but, it's true: All three of these pitchers in 2010 could not throw their fastball as hard as they had in the past. All three were less successful because of this basic flaw. And, all three must either get back some zip on their heater, find a new pitch, or, they'll find it just as hard to pitch well in 2011.
On the plus side, all three guys are competitive, determined players who might be more likely to tap their guile on the mound to keep winning.
Let's look at each pitcher separately:
1. Josh Beckett
Beckett has not been the same "ace" pitcher he was in 2007 for a long time. Now, he's still been quite good at times, and usually that's when he's thrown his fastball at close to 96 mph for a chunk of a typical game.
In recent years, Beckett's fastball has often been clocked close to 93 mph or lower for a large portion of a game. When Beckett has good control, he's been able to keep the team in the game with that 93 mph heater, but he's had very little margin for error.
In 2010, Beckett often could not get his curveball working in games, leaving him with only his diminished fastball. Worsening matters, Beckett's command of his heater was often poor last year.
The result was that we saw Beckett get roughed up a lot, or, even if he got through the first six innings OK, as his arm became fatigued. He often gave up big hits in the sixth or seventh innings and lost games he used to win. Beckett finished 2010 with a 6-6 record and a 5.78 ERA.
For some pitchers, a 92 or 93 mph fastball is outstanding. For Beckett, it can be effective only some of the time. Why? He throws it straight. It has limited movement and if it catches the middle of the plate, good batters often hit line drives. It's no coincidence that Beckett has fared poorly versus the Yankees, who hit fastballs better than any team in baseball.
So, how can Beckett improve in 2011? It'll be a struggle unless he can regain the old velocity of 96 mph. Can he do that? He may be able to rear back and throw that particularly speedy heater in key moments with men on base. Beckett must find ways to add some heat when he needs to. If he keeps throwing at 93 mph or lower speeds, he is likely to remain an average pitcher at best.
2. John Lackey
I recall how impressive Lackey looked when I watched him pitch in 2009 for the LA Angels of Anaheim. He mixed his moving fastball with his outstanding curveball and kept fooling hitters.
I noticed that for much of 2010 with the Red Sox, Lackey did not have that same fastball—with zip on it—that had worked for him on the Angels. What happened? I'm not sure. Hopefully, Lackey can work on his mechanics and location and his fastball with regain some of its old movement.
I noticed that in 2010, Lackey's curveball was usually his best pitch in many games. If his curve was off, he'd be in big trouble. He just couldn't get his fastball by many hitters. This is a huge issue for Lackey, who earns a whopping $18.7 million a year. Last year, he gave up more hits than most starting pitchers in the American League. He finished 2010 at 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA.
3. Jonathan Papelbon
Anyone closely observing Papelbon in the past two years has noticed that he often does not have the same "late life" or "giddy-up" on his fastball that he did in his early days as the team's closer. Back then, Papelbon, often could blow his fastball by most hitters even if he threw it down the middle of the plate. Few hitters could respond to that "late life" that made Papelbon special.
In early 2009, Papelbon changed his motion a bit, reportedly to use his legs more and preserve his arm. The movement on his fastball was missing quite often that year, and he had to throw more pitches and work harder to save games. He was still damned good, but he was more vulnerable.
In 2010, his fastball lacked the "late life" for a larger part of the season. Also, Papelbon's fastball was clocked at a lower speed last year, often from 92 to 94 mph rather than the 95 to 97 mph range we'd seen in his earlier years. It was not a coincidence that he finished 2010 with a 5-7 record, eight blown saves and an ERA of 3.90 (his career ERA is 2.22).
Papelbon has become a more inconsistent closer. He's still good, but more shaky. He cannot make batters swing and miss as often as he used to. His strikeout totals have dropped. His control has declined. He walks batters more often. Hitters foul a lot of pitches off against Papelbon.
In 2010, Papelbon tried to use his split-fingered fastball more, with a bit of success, and he used his slider more. Yet, hitters sat on his fastball—the pitch they had dreaded seeing in the past.
I saw Papelbon quoted in a recent interview saying that he expected to throw his splitter (or slider) earlier in pitch counts in 2011 to mix things up more. I hope it works, but, let's face it: If Papelbon cannot get that old "giddy-up" back, he will never be the same closer.
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