Starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano endured the worst outing of his career Monday, surviving just 1 1/3 innings and surrendering eight runs, an inauspicious beginning to what became a downright ugly loss for the Chicago Cubs on Opening Day.
The Atlanta Braves got nine RBI combined from shortstop Yunel Escobar and rookie sensation Jason Heyward en route to a 16-5 win.
New center fielder Marlon Byrd hit a three-run home run in the top of the first inning for Chicago, but Atlanta got six in the bottom half. By the time Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez cracked a two-run homer in the third inning, Sean Marshall was pitching for Chicago and the Braves' lead stood at 8-5.
A barrage of singles and doubles helped Atlanta add six runs more in the bottom of the seventh to blow the game open for good.
Chicagoans may not yet have pressed the panic button, but they certainly have their hands posed. Zambrano's miserable showing, the ineffectual bullpen, and the disappointing defense all serve to set understandably anxious Cubs fans on edge.
But is their angst justified? Are the Cubs now doomed to a second consecutive disappointing season? Common sense, of course, says the game was an aberration, and has no predictive value. But just how much can we glean about the future of the 2010 Cubs from their Opening Day flop?
From 1962 (when the National League expanded its schedule to 162 games) to 2009, the Cubs went 21-26-1 on Opening Day. Yes, the tie (a 10-10 duel with St. Louis in 1965) was later resolved, but for the purposes of studying this data, it is only important that we know how the team performed during their first games of each season.
Of the 21 teams that won on Opening Day, nine had a winning record for the full season, and the 21 had an average record of 80-82. Of the 26 Opening Day losers, 10 had a record of .500 or better, but the average records of those teams was just 75-83 (strike years and play-in games have distorted the actual number of games in the sample).
Yet, of the six Cubs teams that have reached postseason play during the expansion era, three won their first game of the year, and three lost. What's more, of the six teams that have been blown out on Opening Day since 1968 (either losing by at least five runs, or surrendering at least 10), two had winning records, and one—the 1998 team—made it into October.
The average record of those six teams was 80-82, or exactly the same as the overall record of clubs that won their first game. That figure, in turn, is a full three games better than the 76-83 average record of the team over that span, albeit in a small sample.
True, Jeff Samardzija (whose fastball continues to fly string-straight) and Zambrano had painful 2010 debuts. The team has warts, and Monday's contest exposed a number of them. But it is important not to read too much into one game, especially the first game of what will be a long season, regardless of its eventual outcome.
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