Calling Josh Hamilton’s 2010 a magical year, to date, would be an understatement. His MVP-like campaign seemingly gets better and better as the season progresses.
Have doubts about his performance?
All you have to do is look at the numbers (through Saturday) to settle your nerves… Or maybe not:
466 At Bats
.356 Batting Average (166 Hits)
27 Home Runs
85 RBI
84 Runs
Eight Stolen Bases
.407 On Base Percentage
.624 Slugging Percentage
.394 Batting Average on Balls in Play
Clearly, the BABIP is an inflated number, so you have to be concerned about his ability to maintain his current average. If that were the only concern, it would be enough to project a fall, but unfortunately there’s a little bit more.
Thus far this season he’s posted a strikeout rate of 18.9 percent. Just compare that to the previous three seasons:
- 2007 - 21.8 percent
- 2008 - 20.2 percent
- 2009 - 23.5 percent
Is it a huge difference (besides 2009)? No, it’s not, but if he were to regress and start striking out more, the average would be affected even more.
Hamilton posted modest averages in April (.265) and May (.294). Since then, it’s been unreal:
- June - .454
- July - .418
- August - .324
Sooner or later, you have to think everything is going to come together and he’s going to slow down. I’m not saying he’s going to hit .220 for a month, but it’s nearly impossible for him to continue at this type of pace. With the concerns over his BABIP and strikeout rates, proceed with caution there.
As for the power, there is nothing not to like. His fly ball rate is a realistic 36.3 percent. His HR/FB is at 19.6 percent, right along with his 2007 (24.4 percent) and 2008 (19.2 percent).
He has been significantly more productive at home then on the road:
- Home - .396, 18 HR, 47 RBI, 49 R
- Road - .318, nine HR, 38 RBI, 35 R
Luckily for fantasy owners, the Rangers have played 62 games at home thus far, and 61 on the road. There would be a lot less optimism if he had significantly more games to play on the road, huh?
The bottom line is Hamilton has been an amazing performer thus far and very well could be the MVP in the AL this season. The power is for real, and in a loaded lineup, the RBI and runs should continue to come. The average is the one concern, and he could slump there at some point over the final few weeks, but it certainly isn’t enough.
When healthy, Hamilton is one of the elite outfielders in the game, there’s just no doubt about it, and should continue to be so moving forward.
What are your thoughts on Hamilton? What do you expect the rest of the year? How about for 2011?
Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:
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