And now for a question that's not as absurd as it should be.
Here's the deal: The Boston Red Sox's offense has been really good in 2016. It's scored 324 runs in 54 games, an average of 6.00 per contest. At that rate, it'll finish with 972 runs. That's only 28 runs shy of 1,000, a mark last reached by Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome and the rest of the 1999 Cleveland Indians.
That points to a non-zero chance that the 2016 Red Sox can make a spirited run at 1,000 runs. The real question, of course, is how much higher than zero their chances go.
Well, it says a lot that this isn't a question of whether Boston's offense looks legit. It does. For Exhibit A, I present Mookie Betts' five dingers in a span of seven at-bats this week:
That's numero uno on the list of offensive highlights the Red Sox have produced, and it didn't even come from their best hitter.
Far from it, actually. Through the lens of wRC+ (weighted runs created plus), which measures offensive value in relation to league average (100), Betts is the fifth-best of Boston's regulars behind David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia. Overall, seven regulars are performing better than average:
These seven players are driving the Red Sox's league-leading .296 batting average, .360 on-base percentage and .494 slugging percentage. And with a collective wRC+ of 128, FanGraphs' Owen Watson's earlier observation that the 2016 Red Sox are outperforming the 1927 New York Yankees is holding true.
There are no Babe Ruths or Lou Gehrigs, but Boston's lineup does feature a good mix. Ortiz, Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez are veterans with good-to-great track records. Bogaerts and Betts are former elite prospects who are now rising superstars. Bradley and Travis Shaw are less likely suspects, but they are picking up where they left off in the second half of 2015.
As Ortiz told Matt Snyder of CBS Sports:
Opponents, the way they look at it, it's like, "Let's take care of the big guy," but right now, the hitting is contagious. I really believe that I'm doing well -- better than ever -- because everyone is doing well. You don't have to focus on David Ortiz, everyone is doing unbelievable. The way everyone is going, that makes my life easier.
This isn't so much an offense that can hit as it is an offense that can do everything. Looking at the key foundations of run-scoring, the Red Sox are:
- Top-15 in MLB in walk percentage
- Bottom-10 in MLB in strikeout percentage
- No. 1 in MLB in isolated power
- Top-10 in MLB in baserunning value
This is an offense that works counts, puts the ball in play, hits the ball hard and runs the bases well. If you can imagine a cross between a typical Moneyball-style Red Sox offense and the recent hit-and-run offenses of the Kansas City Royals, you get the 2016 Red Sox.
The circumstances around the Red Sox's offense, meanwhile, are just as encouraging.
The Red Sox play half their games at Fenway Park, which ESPN.com's park factors confirm as a good place to hit. The American League East is home to two more of those: Yankee Stadium and Rogers Centre.
Elsewhere, the league as a whole is further escaping the recent dominance of pitching. The increase in walks could be due to pressure on umpires from on high. As for the increased power, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports isn't alone in wondering whether the ball is juiced.
All told, the overwhelming excellence of Boston's offense doesn't feel like a fluke. It's a case of real talent at the right place at the right time. Hence, all the runs.
But…
Optimism about the Red Sox's chances of scoring 1,000 runs only goes so far before snapping back to one reality: As good as they've been, they're still not on pace to get there. They need to score 676 runs in their remaining 108 games to make the cut. That's 6.26 runs per game.
Asking an offense that's already averaging 6.00 runs per game to add an extra 0.26 runs per game may not seem like a big deal. But that comes down to which individuals can actually do better. The issue there is that the majority of Boston's regulars are already outpacing their recent history.
Here's a comparison of their 2016 wRC+ numbers to the previous season:
Note: "Previous" means 2015 for everyone except Christian Vazquez, who was injured all year after breaking through in 2014.
It's true that a performance in one season isn't terribly predictive of a performance the next season. And in the cases of Boston's young stars—Bradley, Bogaerts, Betts and Shaw—it's fair to wonder if their performance spikes were inevitable.
But at the same time, asking those four guys to do even better is asking a lot. It's asking even more of Big Papi, whose age-40 season is shaping up to be the best season of his career. Pedroia is also making a run at a career-best season.
Ramirez is the one guy who stands out as a candidate to do more. He does have a career 128 wRC+, after all, and it was only three years ago that he was one of baseball's best hitters.
If Ramirez catches fire while the hot hitters stay hot, the Red Sox could be on to something. If Vazquez, Brock Holt and/or Blake Swihart, Holt's injury replacement, also pick it up, 1,000 runs will look less like a pie in the sky and more like a pie on a windowsill.
But this is a stretch.
Ramirez has mostly been mediocre over the last six seasons, and he's now at an age (32) that makes it hard to count on him to snap out of it. Vazquez isn't a regular because of his bat. Holt's slow start is really an extended slump that dates back to last summer. Swihart has a good hit tool, but his modest power puts a natural cap on how high his offensive influence can go.
Boston's farm system probably can't help either. Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers are exciting prospects, but they've only advanced as far as High-A Salem. Andrew Benintendi escaped Salem with a hot start but is now being humbled at Double-A Portland.
Maybe the Red Sox could trade one or two of those guys for an extra impact bat. But since it's pitching they need most, don't count on it.
The Red Sox still have a non-zero chance of making it to 1,000 runs. There's a non-zero chance of literally anything happening in baseball, and this is indeed an offense worthy of the pursuit.
What's more likely, though, is that this offense trends in the opposite direction. A whole bunch of guys all having career years at once is a cool thing to watch but a hard thing to sustain.
Still, at least the Red Sox gave us an excuse to have this conversation. It may be absurd, but it's also pretty cool.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked and are current through Wednesday, June 1.
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