We'd all be better off if Major League Baseball didn't bother to keep track of what happens in spring training. That way, we wouldn't be tempted to read into records and statistics.
But the league does keep track of these things, and we are tempted to read into them. And when it gets to be this late in the spring, the rationale really just comes down to "might as well."
Today, our "might as well" topic concerns the teams that are playing really well this spring. More to the point, it concerns whether they could carry their spring success over to the regular season.
Now, there's some justification for being willing to do this. Though Lewie Pollis and Bryan Grosnick of Beyond the Box Score have both found that there's very little correlation between spring records and regular-season records, that's not the same as no correlation.
With that in mind, we're going to look at the top teams of the spring season and determine whether what's working for them this spring could work for them in the regular season. Our focus will be on the three teams that entered Thursday—the day I'm writing this—with winning percentages of .600 or better, starting...
Now.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 12-6 (.667)
Right off the bat, let's say this: It's hardly a surprise that the Dodgers look like a really good team.
They have won two straight NL West titles, after all. And though they made many modifications over the winter, the projections don't see any problems. FanGraphs pegs them for baseball's second-best record at 91-71, and Baseball Prospectus pegs them for an MLB-best 98-64 record.
What's been more surprising, however, is that it hasn't been the Dodgers' pitching that's carried them this spring.
They only have a 3.96 ERA, but their collective .811 OPS was second only to the New York Mets entering Thursday's action. That smells a bit fishy at first, as offense doesn't figure to be the Dodgers' primary strength after they ditched Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon.
But once again, the projections like what they see. FanGraphs has the Dodgers finishing fifth in the National League in runs per game, and Baseball Prospectus has them finishing third. In light of that, the thought of the Dodgers being a quality offensive team really shouldn't be suspicious.
Besides which, it hasn't been a bunch of spring training no-names providing the thunder for the Dodgers this spring. Half of their projected regulars have done really well:
Granted, the two guys who are overachieving here are Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson. But we also know that Yasiel Puig is a true stud, and that Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez, Juan Uribe and Carl Crawford are better than they've shown. So on the whole, there's nothing to worry about here.
As for the Dodgers' pitching, that 3.96 ERA does look a bit high for a club that had a 3.40 ERA in 2014. But one thing Mike Podhorzer found at Rotographs in 2012 is that spring ERAs are not to be trusted as much as strikeout and walk rates.
And to that end, it bodes well that Dodgers pitchers entered Thursday with a collective 187-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's about three-and-a-half strikeouts for every walk, which is really good.
Zoom in a little closer, and you see that things would look even better if Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke didn't own eight of the 11 walks dished out by the Dodgers' projected starting rotation. That most certainly won't last. And once you look past Brandon McCarthy's one really bad start, the 8.00 ERA to his name isn't all that scary.
So, the only concerning thing about the Dodgers rotation at this point is Hyun-Jin Ryu's bum left shoulder. But while that will put him on the disabled list at the start of the season, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that an MRI turned up relatively clean.
Ryu, who said he wasn't too worried to begin with, is now simply focused on going through the motions: "Now I'm just focusing on the two weeks and get my condition back and get my arm in shape."
That just leaves the Dodgers relief corps, which has been hit or miss this spring. But we could see Don Mattingly roll with the hits right out of the gate, and he fortunately doesn't need ERA to spot them. Paco Rodriguez, Sergio Santos and Juan Nicasio have combined for 28 strikeouts and zero walks, highlighting them as prime candidates to do the heavy lifting until Kenley Jansen is healthy.
There's been some strangeness feeding into the Dodgers' hot spring. But beyond it being very likely that they're going to be an elite team regardless, there's nothing about their spring that really sets off flashing red lights.
Verdict: Believe it
Oakland A's: 14-9 (.609)
Now, see, this is a surprising spring performance. Though the A's didn't downgrade as much as it looked during their winter spring-cleaning project, the projections only have them being as good as a wild-card contender in 2015. Seeing them teasing elite status is eye-opening.
As for how it's happening, the A's mainly have their offense to thank for their hot spring. The .779 OPS they entered Thursday with doesn't match the Dodgers, but it's good enough to put them in the top five among American League clubs.
There is some flukiness going on here, though. Narrow things down to the A's who had at least 40 spring at-bats through Wednesday, and you see their overall offensive performance getting a dose of help from guys who don't figure to be big weapons in 2015. Namely:
- Billy Burns: .971 OPS
- Mark Canha: .842 OPS
- Eric Sogard: .812 OPS
- Tyler Ladendorf: .787 OPS
If we disregard them and see what the projected regulars have done, we get much more of a mixed bag:
The good performances stand out as being reasonably believable. Stephen Vogt, Ike Davis, Ben Zobrist, Marcus Semien and Billy Butler probably will be productive regulars. But given the particulars involved, third base and center field could be problem areas, and Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick are indeed likely to only produce so much due to injuries.
So a top-five American League offense? Eh...I don't know about that.
Meanwhile, in the realm of elsewhere, A's pitchers have a 4.05 ERA. That's not bad by American League standards, and it comes with 192 strikeouts on the side. That's second among all clubs this spring.
But next to that is 77 walks, the fourth-most of the spring. So A's pitchers are striking out two-and-a-half batters for every walk, which isn't nearly as impressive as the Dodgers' performance we just discussed.
More specifically, that shortcoming is manifesting itself in the leaders for the final three spots for Oakland's rotation. That looks like Jesse Hahn, Drew Pomeranz and Kendall Graveman, who have combined for just a 2.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go with their collective 2.31 ERA.
It's hard to sum up what all of this means, other than to say that the A's have been a pretty mixed bag this spring. That makes it hard enough to understand their spring record much less predict similar success to come.
Verdict: Don't believe it
Los Angeles Angels: 12-8 (.600)
And now we go back to the realm of the not totally surprising. The Angels did win a league-best 98 games last year, after all, and are projected to be back in the mix for the AL West title in 2015.
To these extents, their hot spring makes sense. What makes even more sense is that it's come mainly from knocking the cover off the ball.
Entering Thursday, the Angels had an .806 OPS that ranked them just behind the Dodgers for third in the league. This is after they were the best offensive team in baseball last year, so it's not coming out of nowhere.
For that matter, this spring's performance isn't coming from nobodies. The Angels haven't wasted too many at-bats on guys who don't figure to play big roles in 2015, and just about all of their projected regulars are having strong springs:
To be sure, some of the numbers here are way too big to be predictive—looking at you, Johnny Giavotella.
But as far as these figures being a tease that Mike Trout won't have to do it all on his own in 2015, it works well enough. He had plenty of support in the Angels' 2014 lineup, and he should enjoy more of the same in 2015.
On the flip side, the spring hasn't been nearly as kind to the Angels pitchers. Through Wednesday, they had a 4.56 ERA and a 132-61 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Neither of those figures is encouraging, and the picture doesn't look much brighter once we zoom in on the club's projected rotation:
The only guy having a good spring across the board is Jered Weaver, who is proving his point about not needing his old fastball velocity. But apart from him, there have been too many hits, homers and walks, and not enough strikeouts.
However, some faith is warranted here.
After breaking out with a 3.04 ERA and a 5.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2014, Matt Shoemaker is better than he's shown. We also know that Garrett Richards, who dominated to the tune of a 2.61 ERA last year, should finish his recovery from knee surgery in time to join the Angels rotation in mid-April.
So what looks like a rotation with four weak spots now should have only two weak spots before long. That will help mitigate the inevitable cooldown of the Angels' projected lineup, ultimately allowing them to enjoy the same dynamic they had in 2014: plenty of offense, and just enough pitching.
Verdict: Believe it
Note: Spring stats courtesy of MLB.com and are current through Wednesday, March 25. All others courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.
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