Take this next sentence, stick it in an envelope, put the envelope in a time machine and send it back to a St. Louis Cardinals fan in March 2015.
Here's the sentence: You're going to lose Adam Wainwright for essentially the entire season to a busted Achilles, Matt Adams and Matt Holliday are going to miss almost 200 combined contests to injury—and the Cards are still going to win 100 games.
It's tempting to say that fan would scoff (after he quit marveling at your time machine). But maybe not.
These are the Cardinals, after all, perennial contenders who always seem to plug leaks with savvy trades and free-agent additions, plus call-ups from their eternally fertile farm system.
Still, St. Louis was absolutely, brutally injury-bitten this season. On top of the aforementioned names, All-Star catcher Yadier Molina, outfielder Jon Jay and onetime Rookie of the Year hopeful Randal Grichuk all got dinged. And that's a partial list.
Yet, to repeat, the Cardinals won 100 games in the toughest division in baseball. They walked away with the National League Central. Tip your hat to a resilient bunch.
There's one more injury we haven't mentioned, however. And as the Cardinals prepare to kick off their historic division series with the Chicago Cubs on Friday, it might finally be the one that slows St. Louis' roll.
We're talking about Carlos Martinez, the hard-throwing, young right-hander whose emergence helped alleviate the loss of Wainwright.
Before succumbing to a late-September shoulder strain, Martinez posted a 3.01 ERA with 184 strikeouts in 179.2 innings. It was a legitimate breakout for the 24-year-old, who has always had the stuff to be a star but spent the bulk of his first two big league seasons in the bullpen, where he posted plus-4.00 ERAs.
Suddenly, there he was, fronting the rotation, looking like an ace in the offing. Then, in a flash, he was lost.
At the time, manager Mike Matheny called it "a shame," per the Associated Press (via USA Today).
"Such is this game," the Cardinals skipper added, per the AP. "We're just going to have to keep rolling like so many other times this season."
He's right, as we just outlined. St. Louis has shaken off a MASH-unit's worth of ailments to remain on its annual October track. And, somehow, even with the recently activated Wainwright limited to bullpen duty and Martinez on the shelf, the Cards have cobbled together a passable division series rotation, with veteran John Lackey slated to pitch Game 1, followed by Jaime Garcia, Michael Wacha and Lance Lynn.
Glance at the other contenders in the National League, though. The New York Mets have a trio of burgeoning studs in Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The Los Angeles Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw.
And the Cubs have Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta, backed by playoff-tested lefty Jon Lester.
By comparison, the Cardinals' starting corps appears vulnerable. It lacks a true ace.
Indeed, a pitching staff that was a strength for the Cardinals for most of the season faltered in the final lap, posting a pedestrian 4.18 ERA in September and October.
And it's not as if St. Louis has a world-beating offense to fall back on. The Cardinals scored the 24th-fewest runs in baseball in the regular season and hit the 25th-fewest dingers.
Yes, their postseason roster is sprinkled with seasoned bats who've been on this stage before. It's never wise to dismiss the Cardinals, who have made four consecutive trips to the National League Championship Series and tacked on two Fall Classic appearances and a Commissioner's Trophy in that span.
To reheat the cliche, they know how to win. (We'll spare you talk of the "Cardinal Way.")
Here's how SB Nation's Grant Brisbee summed it up:
The adaptability, the depth, the answer for every single pitfall, an answer to every pitfall at the bottom of the pitfall … it's something I don't ever remember seeing. The Cardinals should be struggling to stay above .500, bemoaning the loss of their ace, one of their #2 starters, their starting catcher, their first baseman, and a half-dozen different outfielders. And instead, they're here again, threatening to win a championship.
Martinez, however, was a huge part of that threat. The Cardinals went 25-8 in games that he started. His absence will be felt, particularly against a young Cubs lineup that, while potent, struck out at a higher rate than any other MLB team, per FanGraphs. That's a weakness Martinez and his swing-through stuff could have exploited.
It's entirely possible St. Louis would have lost its first-ever playoff series against the archrival Cubbies even with Martinez on the hill. Casting aside the regular-season disparity, Chicago enters the NLDS with momentum on its side after vanquishing the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game behind a dominant Arrieta outing.
On the other hand, perhaps the Cardinals can find a way to win without Martinez. Let's say Wainwright rises from the ashes, or the current rotation exceeds expectations, or the bats turn up the heat.
To put it another way: Maybe, just maybe, St. Louis has one more burst of resilience—the kind you'd send back in a time machine.
All statistics current as of Oct. 8 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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