Over the coming weeks, there will be a number of tough decisions made on the north side of Chicago. Now that it appears the ownership issue will be settled soon, the business of baseball can begin again.
One decision that needs to be made is regarding free agent pitcher Rich Harden. Harden, who was acquired at the trade deadline in a move that directly countered the Milwaukee Brewers' acquisition of CC Sabathia, might have been the best Cubs starter down the stretch this past season.
Now a free agent, Harden presents an intriguing set of issues to Cubs management. His performance in 2009 gives the team every reason to offer him new paper, but his career numbers would indicate that any long-term big-money deal might come with the risk of him missing significant time because of injury.
Many observers thought the Cubs would move Harden at this year's trade deadline to avoid the reality of making a decision with the Canadian starter. But when it appeared he would rank as a Type A free agent this winter, the Cubs decided to keep him through the end of the year.
As a Type A free agent, another team signing Harden would mean the Cubs would receive draft picks as compensation for losing a pitcher of his caliber. These picks are generally sandwiched between rounds, which is a big reason why the baseball draft seems to take a month to finish.
The higher the ranking of the player, whether he's a Type A or Type B, carries weight on the round and number of picks received by the team losing the player.
There appears now that there's another fly in the Cubs' ointment in 2009; in a respected analyst's opinion, Harden ranks out as a Type B free agent now.
This development could present issues on a number of fronts. First, the gamble the Cubs took on him earning Type A status (which many fans used as their reasoning for backing the Cubs keeping Harden) appears to have now backfired. The compensation for a Type B free agent would certainly be less than anything the Cubs could have received in trade.
Second, the "incentive" for the Cubs to lose Harden to free agent being lost creates an issue with the current roster. Looking at the minor leagues, all indications from the Cubs organization seem to point towards there not being another starter in the system ready for the majors.
Which means the Cubs would have to either retain Harden, trade for a pitcher, or sign a veteran free agent.
Any of those three could prove costly. Harden is reportedly looking to be compensated in the same neighborhood as Ryan Dempster, whom the Cubs gave a four-year, $52 million contract before this season.
If the Cubs duplicated that deal with Harden, they would have four starting pitchers in their 2010 rotation making more than $10 million—none of whom won as many as 13 games or avoided the disabled list this year.
Sound like a championship roster?
The third and final issue with Harden's free agency status is that his stuff is so good, it's hard to deny it. He has one of the best strikeouts-per-nine innings pitcher ratios in baseball, and can dominate an opponent any day of the week.
But then there are the other days when he can't get out of the fourth inning, has an elevated pitch count early in a game, or his shoulder is fatigued and he misses a couple starts.
Harden's 26 starts were the most he's had since 2004, and he still only managed 141 innings pitched in 2009. His 171 strikeouts in those 141 innings are the fool's gold on the stat sheet, though. Most general manager's imagine the lightning in a bottle they could have if Harden extrapolated that production to 180 or 190 innings.
Harden's future in Chicago could play a huge role in the success of the 2010 Cubs team. There's a dark cloud surrounding a majestic silver lining for him, which is what could make this a great gamble for Jim Hendry.
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