There's already been a bevy of articles on Bleacher Report talking about all the Pujols rumors, but most of these are just "it would be so great for the Cubs to get Pujols" rah-rah pieces.
I thought it might be interesting to break down the Cubs current 2012 salary commitments and what that means for how much money they'll have to spend to try and bring Pujols, Prince Fielder or any of the other big free agents out there.
A few caveats:
No. 1 I'm assuming the 2012 payroll will stay pretty close to 2011 - around $130 million
No. 2 I'm assuming the Cubs re-up Aramis at around the same annual price - $15 mil (honestly, there are no other good free agent 3B out there after this upcoming season......the Cubs would be dumb to let him walk....)
No. 3 I'm not sure what they plan on doing with Kerry Wood after the season
No. 4 I'm using information from:
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294...
Although I don't think these are official MLB payroll numbers, they are probably really close to the actual payroll numbers.
After 2011, the Cubs have these salaries coming off the books:
-$14.5 mil (Fukudome)
-$5 (Silva – he actually makes $12 mil this year, but Seattle is paying $5 of that, so $7 mil compared to a $2 mil buyout they'll pay him in 2012…)
-$10 (Pena)
-$4.8 (Grabow)
-
$3.5 (Samardzija)
-$37.8 TOTAL
But they’re also going to have raises to players, through both contracts and arbitration:
+$3 (Garza)
+$1 (Byrd)
+$4 (Marmol)
+$3 (Soto)
+$1.5 (Marshall)
+$12.5 TOTAL
Net savings of $25.3 compared to this year's payroll.
They will still have to give some other players slight raises, but I don't think that'll be more than $5 million total compared to what I've outlined so far.
So giving Pujols a $30 mil/per year contract is definitely doable.
They could give him a signing bonus and then pay him $23 million or $24 million for salary in 2012.
I’d prefer they actually front-load the long-term contract a bit so they don’t end up paying him $40 million a year when he’s in his late-30s.
Their lineup in 2012 would be something like:
No.1 DeWitt / Baker
No.2 Castro
No.3 Pujols
No.4 Ramirez
No.5 Colvin
No.6 Soriano
No.7 Byrd
No.8 Soto
Their rotation in 2012 would be something like:
Zambrano, Dempster, Garza, Wells, Cashner
And the front end of their bullpen in 2012 would be something like:
Scott Maine, Marshall, Marmol
After 2012, they also have the salaries of Byrd, Zambrano, and Dempster coming off the books, a combined $40 million.
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