The Chicago Cubs made what is likely their last major offseason move when they sent infielder Luis Valbuena and pitcher Dan Straily to the Houston Astros for outfielder and leadoff man Dexter Fowler. He gives the team some speed, the ability to get on base and a solid glove in the outfield. But just how much better does Fowler actually make the Cubs?
Let's break down the numbers...
Fowler's batting average when leading off an inning last season was .393; that's a pretty staggering stat. Since leadoff men are only guaranteed to lead off in the first inning of every game, their batting average when leading off an inning largely indicates how well they set the tone for the entire game.
If Fowler can keep that up this season, the Cubs could be getting on the board first in many games. That, of course, would happen if Fowler was able to reach base in the first inning and the heart of the order was able to drive him in.
Chris Coghlan's batting average when leading off an inning last season was .317. Clearly, he was a pretty good leadoff option as well, but Fowler is still a considerable step up.
With a deeper lineup, Coghlan could reasonably bat second, seventh or eighth on any particular day. That makes him more versatile in the lineup, and it makes the Cubs' lineup more versatile as a whole.
Fowler's batting average against right-handed pitching last season was .260 as opposed to Arismendy Alcantara's .190 batting average against righties last season. Fowler will be taking Alcantara's spot in center field while Alcantara could become a super-utility player since he showed an ability to play outfield and he was brought up as a middle infielder.
Fowler's fielding percentage last season was .980 compared to Alcantara's .958 fielding percentage. It makes sense that Fowler is a better fielder by percentage since he's played several years in center field in the pros while Alcantara didn't play center field until reaching the major leagues last season.
In a nutshell, Fowler makes the Cubs better for a couple reasons. He reaches base more often than Coghlan and hits for a higher average when leading off an inning as well. That will give the Cubs more production out of the leadoff spot.
Additionally, he's an offensive and defensive upgrade over Alcantara, the player he will be replacing in the field. Obviously, whenever you can improve offensively and not have a drop-off defensively from a player you acquire, you have to be pleased.
Finally, he makes the lineup much more versatile. Since Coghlan likely won't be leading off much, he now can hit in a number of spots in the order. In the field, Alcantara can get plenty of playing time as a super-utility guy. With the increased versatility, manager Joe Maddon can construct the best lineup possible day in and day out.
Fowler isn't a superstar, but his arrival in Chicago could coincide with a resurgence on the North Side. He's just the latest improvement to their roster, but he could make a big difference for the Cubs in 2015.
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